Recap:
A futures reversal summed up last week’s trade. We came into the week on a positive note, with trade becoming more fluid. Monday’s fat-finger debacle ended that quickly, and it took the rest of the week just to claw back half of the move.
The cash market told a different story from futures. Trade was solid throughout the week, with strength across most species; only spruce lagged. SYP continues to move higher in sizable increments, and I would expect Spruce to begin catching some of that enthusiasm. While higher rates and crude prices remain headwinds, the market’s attention today is squarely on supply and demand. Improving weather conditions should also help bring a few buyers back into the market.
Technical:
Monday’s selloff did some damage, pulling the market back into the March expiration area. As a result, May’s technical structure has reverted to early‑March levels, effectively nullifying the upcycle that had been forming. From here, the levels are well defined. A close back above the old high of 614.50 would restore upward momentum and put the market back on a positive trajectory. Conversely, a close below 582.00 would signal a technical reversal and shift the near‑term bias lower.
Daily Bulletin:
https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf
Southern Yellow Pine:
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/southern-yellow-pine.volume.html
The Commitment of Traders:
https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm
About the Leonard Report:
The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.
Brian Leonard
bleonard@rcmam.com
312-761-263
Corn has transitioned from early-week weakness into a volatile but constructive rally, driven far more by macro forces than traditional supply-and-demand fundamentals. Since the start of the Iran conflict, rising crude oil and diesel prices have injected inflation-driven buying into the grain complex, helping corn recover from Monday’s sharp losses and push higher into the end of the week. At the same time, the market is actively weighing the real impact of elevated input costs, particularly nitrogen, which could pull U.S. planted acreage below key thresholds near 94 million acres and provide longer-term support. However, that bullish narrative is being offset by softer export demand, limited Chinese participation, and concerns that high freight costs could further hinder competitiveness. With speculative funds now holding a large and increasingly crowded long position, corn remains technically supported but vulnerable to sharp corrections, especially if energy markets stabilize or geopolitical tensions ease.
Soybeans have been the most volatile market of the complex, starting with a dramatic limit-down selloff early in the week tied to delayed U.S.-China trade talks and fading optimism around biofuel policy, before rebounding alongside strength in crude oil and the broader commodity space. Despite the recovery, the underlying fundamentals remain more bearish relative to corn, with record South American production, ongoing harvest pressure, and expectations for increased U.S. soybean acreage (potentially 85–86+ million acres) all weighing on the outlook. The earlier optimism around Chinese demand has cooled significantly, and with funds still holding a sizable position even after liquidation, rallies may continue to be sold. While inflation-driven money flow has provided temporary support, soybeans appear to be on more fragile footing, particularly if energy markets lose momentum or if acreage shifts materialize as expected this spring.
