RCM Ag Services

Tag: wheat markets

  • Home
  • wheat markets
10 Dec 2024
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Education, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: NOVEMBER 18 – DECEMBER 10

Corn has had a good month but needs some more help to get over the $4.50 hump that it bumped against after Tuesday’s Dec USDA report. The bullish trade leading into the report was hoping the USDA would find better numbers for ethanol and US exports, but they underestimated the demand numbers with the US ending stocks coming in 168 million bushels below estimates for US stocks. World stocks were also lower by 268 million bushels. While these stocks numbers are still very strong, they have tightened enough to raise the floor for the meantime while corn could trade between $4.30-$4.55 heading into the new year.

Via Barchart

Soybeans’ last few weeks of trade between $9.80 and $10 has not provided much bullish optimism. There were no surprises in the Dec USDA report as large South American crop expectations and the US bean carryout doubling from 2023 are still bearish influences. Soybeans have a tough road ahead as South America is on pace to produce another record crop, and the incoming administration will likely not be biofuel friendly in the US. With all the recent investments in biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel, there is a cloud that hangs over those areas that we are not sure if it is nothing and will blow over or a storm that may linger.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets have continued higher with some recent weaknesses in the largest stocks while strength in the market has broadened. Analysts are beginning to release their outlooks for 2025, while plenty still feel good about the market do not expect another year of 20+% returns like we saw in ’23 and ’24 (so far) after the down year in ’22.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • The Assad regime in Syria is over. Israel and Hamas appear close to reaching a temporary ceasefire. The fallout of both will be watched by energy markets as many questions will emerge in the region.
  • There was a slight cut to US wheat stocks, but world stocks are as expected, and comfortable as low Russian cash prices continue to reflect their ample supplies.

 

Drought Monitor

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

13 May 2024
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: APRIL 19 – MAY 10

Corn has seen a strong rally over the last couple of weeks as planting is slightly delayed in parts of the US and funds seem to have changed their tone a bit. Last week’s USDA Report did not have any earth-shattering news but did provide some good news for the markets. US corn stocks were lower than estimates heading into the report along with world stocks for both 23/24 and 24/25. The production outlook for this year, 181 bu/ac, continues to show how the advances in agronomic practices and seed genetics continue to grow. All of these carryout and stocks numbers are based on those production estimates so if we begin to see weather issues or problems at the end of planting, we could continue to see revisions to the downside, and vice versa with great weather and conditions.

Via Barchart

Beans had a rough week after a strong start to May. The USDA Report leaned bearish as the South American production continues to expand for the upcoming year. The USDA is slowly trimming Brazil’s bean crop but is still above CONAB’s estimates by a bout 300 million bushels. The recent flooding in southern Brazil will force their hand to lower their expectations but the CONAB estimates on losses will be closely watched. Another promising development in the report was the expectation of record imports and usage in China. While much of this is expected to be met by Brazil and issues with their production will still need to be met.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets have rebounded over the last couple weeks with earnings season going on. The feeling on Fed rate cuts keeps pushing them back with one not expected until the fall and at least one fed chair thinking we may not get one this year as inflation remains sticky. Rates will remain data dependent but the feeling of higher for longer continues to seem more likely.

Via Barchart

Cotton

  • Cotton has fallen well off the February and March highs as the lack of demand in the global market mixed with funds exiting their long positions has beaten down the market.

Via Barchart

Wheat

  • Wheat’s recent rallies are welcome after struggling to find much positive movement in the market to start the year. Frost damage to Russia’s wheat crop and a dry pattern in the Black Sea has been the recent mover as the USDA Report had some mixed numbers. Smaller than expected US stocks, 24/25 world stocks and total production with higher than expected world wheat stocks for 23/24.

Other News

  • Conflict continues between Israel and Palestine as a ceasefire has been negotiated on many sides, but nothing has been agreed to yet.
  • Major flooding across southern Brazil has killed thousands of livestock and will have an impact on their crop but the extent of which is not known yet

Drought Monitor

Here is the current drought monitor as we head toward planting with subsoil moisture a focus.

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

16 Jan 2024
Agriculture, Corn, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

USDA Final 2023 Yield and Stocks Overview

USDA Final 2023 Yield and Stocks

Overview

January 12, 2024

First Glance:

Corn        

USDA Yield:   177.3 BPA (174.9 Estimate – 174.9 Nov)

Total Crop: 15.342 BBU (15.226 Estimate – 15.234 Nov)

Harvested Area:  86.513 MA (87.036 Estimate – 87.096 Nov)

23/24 US Ending Stocks: 2.162 BBU (2.111 Estimate – 2.131 Nov)

23/24 World Stocks: 325.2 MMT (312.9 Estimate – 315.2 Nov)

Brazil/ARG Crop: 182 MMT (180 Estimate – 184 Nov)

Beans      

USDA Yield:   50.6 BPA (49.9 Estimate – 49.9 Nov)

Total Crop: 4.165 BBU (4.134 Estimate – 4.129 Nov)

Harvested Area:  82.356 (82.757 Estimate – 82.791 Nov)

23/24 US Ending Stocks:  280 MBU (245 Estimate – 245 Nov)

23/24 World Stocks: 114.6 MMT (111.9 Estimate – 114.2 Nov)

Brazil/ARG Crop: 212.0 MMT (204.9 Estimate – 209 Nov)

Wheat     

23/24 US Ending Stocks:  648 MBU (659 Estimate – 659 Nov)

Winter Wheat Seedings: 34.425 MA (35.786 Estimate – 36.699 LY)

23/24 World Stocks: 260.0 MMT (258.3 Estimate – 258.2 Nov)

 

The USDA found larger than expected totals in almost every category, increasing corn yield 2.4 bpa over the November estimate to 177.3 bpa. This is both a record yield and record total crop of 15.342 billion bushels. Bean yield was also raised .7 bpa to 50.6 and a total crop of 4.165 bbu. Both corn and bean harvested acres were slightly trimmed, the only bullish news in the report.

Higher yields were pushed through to higher ending stocks with US corn carryover raised to 2.162 bbu (+31 mbu from Nov) and 803 mbu above last year’s stocks. Beans had a similar fate with stocks set at 280 mbu, up 35 mbu from November but only 16 mbu above last year. Wheat stocks were slightly smaller than expected at 648 mbu but still up 78 mbu from 22/23.

Despite the rough start to Brazil’s growing season in their northern regions, Brazil’s bean and corn crops were not cut as much as expected. The weather has improved hurting the bullish narrative of a bad year for Brazil but the expanded acreage will also help offset any damage done earlier in the year.

There has not been any good news lately and prices reflect that. In June there was concern over the US crop with corn a $6.25 and beans at $14, now today has made new contract and multi-year lows in corn, soybeans and wheat.

16 Oct 2023
Agriculture, Corn, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

USDA OCTOBER CROP REPORT UPDATE

                     

                        2023 Yield Estimate:  173.0 BPA (173.5 BPA Estimate)

                        23/24 US Corn Stocks:  2.111 BBU (2.138 BBU Estimate)

                        23/24 World Corn Stocks:  312.4 MMT (313.05 MMT Estimate) 

  • The USDA lowered US corn yield 0.5 bu/ac which is in line with what we have been hearing from farmers in the field with many areas having great yields but the July heat and dryness did too much damage in other areas. The USDA lowered exports by 25 million bushels while also revising beginning stocks down 91 million bushels.

 

                       2023 Yield Estimate:  49.6 BPA (49.9 BPA Estimate)

                        23/24 US Bean Stocks:  220 MBU (233 MBU Estimate)

                        23/24 World Bean Stocks:  115.62 MMT (119.71 MMT Estimate)

  • The bean numbers were lowered as well with the USDA bringing yield down 0.5 bu/acre. The markets responded favorably to this while the USDA raised beginning stocks, lowered exports, and kept ending stocks the same at 220 million bushels. The drop in bean production was slightly offset by the lowered exports and higher crush.

 

                        23/24 US Wheat Stocks:  670 MBU (647 MBU Estimate)

                        23/24 World Wheat Stocks:  258.13 MMT (258.38 MMT Estimate)

  • The world wheat picture is still clouded by conflict between Russia and Ukraine but the USDA lowered world ending stocks while raising US ending stocks. The Australian wheat crop was lowered 1.5 mmt.

 

Overview:

The USDA gave bulls some life after a sideways trade in corn and lower bean trade the last 2 months. As harvest continues to roll the picture will become clearer but the record low levels on the Mississippi River are being monitored and could lead to the same problems last time this happened with bottlenecks in the export space. As the war in Ukraine continues, war in Israel (a US ally) and the continued tensions between China and Taiwan, the world geopolitical climate is tense and could have ripple effects in world trade.   

December 2023 Corn

November 2023 Beans

December 2023 Wheat

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

02 Oct 2023
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

USDA September Quarterly Stocks Report Overview

First Glance:

Overview:

The Quarterly Stocks report added to the recent misery with larger than expected bean and wheat stocks while corn stocks were below expectations. With minimal adjustments to the 2022 final numbers, the market was already on the defensive in early trade as a brutal combination of week, month and quarter end collide with the probable US government shutdown to push all of the bulls out of the picture. The charts look terrible for beans and wheat as beans have now moved into a bearish posture after the summer strength while corn continues to grind in the $4.70-$4.90 range. The bottom line is that the USDA took away part of the only potentially bullish story in beans while reminding everyone that the world grain markets are well supplied after Brazil and Russia’s record crops and their willingness to be the world’s cheapest source of corn and wheat.

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

04 Aug 2023
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Podcast, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: JULY 20 – AUGUST 4

As quickly as corn rallied to get back over $5.50, the rains and favorable forecasts for August led it back below $5 just as quickly. The rains in late July provided much needed moisture over much of the corn belt, but as you can see in the drought charts below, varying levels of drought conditions remain. The forecast has shifted drier for August but after a record hot July, August is forecasted to be cooler. Reports of how much damage the first half of summer did to this crop are all over the place, which usually means it is somewhere in the middle. A 180+ yield is probably off the table, but a 172 yield seems to be just as unlikely unless the forecasts change to hot and dry for a long stretch soon. Russia’s bombing of Ukrainian ports in Odesa and the Danube River continue as the markets seem to shrug off any new damage. Over the weekend any forecast changes, new developments in Ukraine or world news will determine what the trade does to start the week.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have a similar story to corn this week but were able to avoid the late June collapse that corn saw thanks to the low acreage number. StoneX estimate for bean yield this week was 50.5 bu/ac which would be a supportive number for beans, especially if the acreage number is accurate. China has begun showing up as frequent buyers in export reports helping the demand story that was questionable on world economic worries not too long ago. The lack of bullish news is good news for the bears as no news markets rarely tend to move higher. Weather in August will be important for this crop and next week’s USDA report will give us more information on US production.

Via Barchart

Recent News

Click HERE to listen to RCM Ag Services’ Jody Lawrence join AgriTalk a couple weeks ago to discuss the current market.

Wheat

Wheat followed corn and beans lower for similar reasons. The markets have shrugged off Russian aggression of late but will be watching over the weekend for any escalation.

Equity Markets

The equity markets suffered losses this week with a big down day on Wednesday when Fitch downgraded US debt to AA+ and earnings continue to roll in. The job market seems to be moderating as hiring was slightly weaker than the previous month. The markets are looking for numbers that will keep the economy and markets going while also giving the Fed the signal to stop raising rates. This is a fine line that can feel like walking on eggshells with a long-predicted recession still the worry of most investors.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The drought monitors below show the change in drought conditions over the last 2 weeks.

Podcast

With every new year, there are new opportunities, and there’s no better time to dive deeply into the stock market and tax-saving strategies for 2023 than now. In our latest episode of the Hedged Edge, we’re joined by Tim Webb, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner from our sister company, RCM Wealth Advisors. Tim is no stranger to advising institutions and agribusinesses where he has been implementing no-nonsense financial planning strategies and market investment disciplines to help Clients build and maintain wealth and reach financial goals since

Inside this jam-packed session, we’re taking a break from commodities, and talking about the world of equities, interest rates, tax savings, and business planning strategies. Plus, Jeff and Tim delve into a variety of topics like:

  • The current state of the markets within the wealth management industry
  • Is there a beacon of hope, or is it all doom and gloom for the markets?
  • Other strategies to think about outside of the stock market and so much more!

 

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

25 Jul 2023
Agriculture, Cash Basis, Corn, Grain, Livestock, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

Listen: Jody Lawrence recently joined Chip Flory on AgriTalk to discuss current markets

Recently RCM Ag Services’ director of research, Jody Lawrence, jumped on “AgriTalk with Chip Flory” after they both spoke at an event in Memphis for Helena Agribusiness. During the discussion Jody and Chip dive into the recent events in the commodities space hitting several topics including:

  • The war in Ukraine continuing to impact the world grain supply. The suspension of the export corridor and escalation of the war and its impact on markets.
  • Drought conditions in the US at the start of the year damaged the crop in many areas but how much? Is 177.5 bpa still too high?
  • The recent USDA Report numbers and did 94 million acres of corn really get planted?
  • Balance Sheets and the disconnect between them and what the cash market and basis tells us
  • And More

The audio is below to listen to parts of their discussion and get more insight into their thoughts on what to expect moving forward.

https://omny.fm/shows/market-rally/agritalk-7-18-23-jody-lawrence-1

https://omny.fm/shows/market-rally/agritalk-7-18-23-jody-lawrence-2

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

21 Jul 2023
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Dow Jones, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Podcast, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, U.S. Dollar, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: JULY 7 – 20

Corn has seen a strong rally after falling following the USDA Report last Wednesday. The USDA estimated the US crop to have a 177.6 bu/ac yield this year following the rough start to growing season with drought conditions over most growing areas. While the rains have been beneficial in providing relief, this crop needs a lot more rain in the form of soaking rains and not storms with straight line winds. If the hot and dry pattern returns expect to see prices move higher. Russia has threatened that they will treat any ship entering the now closed grain corridor as a military vessel has tensions in the Black Sea region high again. The longer this new standoff drags out the more support it will provide grains. The collapse of the USD and inconsistent weather can help support this move higher after a bearish USDA report depending on the future forecasts and technical trading.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have enjoyed a great run over the last month and half as soybeans got back over $14 this week. After a low acreage number and not an ideal start to the summer beans have had a great last 2 months. The forecast hot dry stretch coming up is expected to put more stress on this crop as we head into the end of July and start of August. With tightening world balance sheets it will be hard for funds to get over extended short but every weekend provides the opportunity for surprise rains and new market surprises.

Via Barchart

The big news of the week was Russia threatening all vessels that enter the region as military vessels, escalating the tensions and ending the grain corridor for the time being. Russia keeps attacking Odessa which will damage the remaining infrastructure and could present even more challenges if/when the grain deal resumes. The Russian ambassador to the US has said that Russia is not preparing to attack civilian ships in the Black Sea, though previously the Russian Defense Ministry announced that all ships traveling to Ukrainian Black Sea ports would be considered potential carriers of military cargo, and the southeastern and northwestern parts of the Black Sea’s international waters should be considered unsafe for navigation.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets continued their strength the past couple of weeks with CPI coming in slightly lower than expected (by 0.1%) at 3%. While inflation is still above the target of 2% the slow decrease over time is helping it come down while core inflation, 4.8%, follows the same pattern. The Fed decision at the end of the month is likely to result in a ¼ point rate hike as we head into earnings season next week. Tech stocks took their largest losses that we have seen recently on Wednesday as earnings have begun being posted.

Via Barchart

US Dollar

The US Dollar hit its lowest level in a year this week as the greenback fell below the 100 level. This should help ag exports be competitive on the world stage but the sharp decline from the 103-level last week was surprising.

Drought Monitor

The drought monitors below show the change in drought conditions over the last 2 weeks.

Podcast

With every new year, there are new opportunities, and there’s no better time to dive deeply into the stock market and tax-saving strategies for 2023 than now. In our latest episode of the Hedged Edge, we’re joined by Tim Webb, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner from our sister company, RCM Wealth Advisors. Tim is no stranger to advising institutions and agribusinesses where he has been implementing no-nonsense financial planning strategies and market investment disciplines to help Clients build and maintain wealth and reach financial goals since

Inside this jam-packed session, we’re taking a break from commodities, and talking about the world of equities, interest rates, tax savings, and business planning strategies. Plus, Jeff and Tim delve into a variety of topics like:

  • The current state of the markets within the wealth management industry
  • Is there a beacon of hope, or is it all doom and gloom for the markets?
  • Other strategies to think about outside of the stock market and so much more!

 

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

07 Jul 2023
Agriculture, Corn, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: JUNE 23 – JULY 7

Corn fell over the last couple weeks following the USDA coming out with 94 million planted acres, well above the March prospective plantings report. On top of the report there were widespread rains across the US over the end of June and start of July. While the drought conditions remain in most areas this rain was able to provide relief in much needed areas to buy it some time for another good rain. With La Nina setting in the potential for more rain and cooler temperatures could be what we see moving forward but how much damage was caused in May and June will be hard for the market to see. The export market has not provided any help with the slow pace continuing during the summer. If the dryness continues and the rain did not provide enough relief, we could see prices move back up after we get the USDA projected yield update on Wednesday.

Via Barchart

Soybeans had the surprise of lower acres in the report with the USDA coming in at 83.5 million acres, a 4-million-acre shift from the March report. Soybeans got a big pop on this news after falling, like corn, when the chance of rain was added to the forecast for most areas. The pullback this week came as the rains helped this crop that was not in as needy a spot as corn was.  The soybean acreage number will help raise the floor of where this crop could have gone with strong yields, but the low number will be the focus as balance sheets tighten. Weather will be the driver moving forward after the USDA report on Wednesday.

Via Barchart

The report last week for wheat was boring compared to corn and soybeans with little changes made. All wheat acres were reported at 49.628 million, down only 227,000 from the prospective plantings report. While the numbers did not seem bearish overall the USDA trimmed abandonment from 32.6% to 30.5%. Stocks remain tight but the lack of demand with Russia dominating the world markets leaves the US exporters in a tough spot. The lack of US demand does not seem to be changing anytime soon so paying to store wheat, hoping to profit from any bullish change, could cost you more when you include interest you need to pay back on operating loans. If you are looking to profit in this scenario using cheap options to own back on paper would make more sense.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets have traded close to flat over the last two weeks trading higher then back lower. The jobs report came in hotter than expected again this week. The markets give the Fed almost a 90% chance of raising rates at the next meeting. The markets have been lead higher by several stocks as we get to the halfway point, the question moving forward will be will they continue to lead and is there a recession on the horizon.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The drought monitors below show the change in drought conditions over the last 2 weeks.

 

Podcast

With every new year, there are new opportunities, and there’s no better time to dive deeply into the stock market and tax-saving strategies for 2023 than now. In our latest episode of the Hedged Edge, we’re joined by Tim Webb, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner from our sister company, RCM Wealth Advisors. Tim is no stranger to advising institutions and agribusinesses where he has been implementing no-nonsense financial planning strategies and market investment disciplines to help Clients build and maintain wealth and reach financial goals since

Inside this jam-packed session, we’re taking a break from commodities, and talking about the world of equities, interest rates, tax savings, and business planning strategies. Plus, Jeff and Tim delve into a variety of topics like:

  • The current state of the markets within the wealth management industry
  • Is there a beacon of hope, or is it all doom and gloom for the markets?
  • Other strategies to think about outside of the stock market and so much more!

 

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

09 Jun 2023
Agriculture, Corn, Dow Jones, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

Ag Market Update: June USDA Report Overview

22/23 US Corn Stocks:  1.452 BBU (1.449 BBU Est)

22/23 World Corn Stocks:  297.60 MMT (297.66 MMT Est)

23/24 US Ending Stocks:  2.257 BBU (2.254 BBU Est)

23/24 World Ending Stocks: 314.00 MMT (313.40 MMT Est)

22/23 Brazil/ARG Corn Prod: 167.00 MMT (166.67 Est)

World corn stocks look to grow a lot year over year with expected economic slowdowns dragging on consumption. The USDA left production estimates unchanged, while this is not surprising for the June report, the weather will need to start helping or we should see a drop in next month’s report. The EU and GFS weather models continue to be inconsistent for the next two weeks. The USDA lowered Argentina’s production from last month but raised Brazil’s.

 

22/23 US Bean Stocks:  230 MBU (223 MBU Est)

22/23 World Bean Stocks:  101.30 MMT (100.55 MMT Est)

23/24 US Ending Stocks:  350 MBU (345 MBU Est)

23/24 World Ending Stocks:  123.30 MMT (121.99 MMT Est)

22/23 Brazil/ARG Bean Prod: 181.00 MMT (180.16 Est)

The USDA kept the US production the same while lowering exports, which leads to a big jump in US ending stocks. Crush margins should keep supporting beans, as weather is not a major factor, yet, to worry about. Like corn, the drop in Argentina’s bean crop was partially offset by Brazil’s gains.

 

22/23 US Wheat Stocks:  598 MBU (606 MBU Est)

22/23 World Wheat Stocks:  266.70 MMT (266.58 MMT Est)

23/24 US Wheat Stocks:  562 MBU (569 MBU Est)

23/24 World Ending Stocks:  270.70 MMT (264.65 MMT Est)

2023 US All Wheat Production:  1.665 MBU (1.672 MBU Est)

The USDA forecasted wheat world ending stocks to grow more than expected with higher stock in Russia, India Ukraine and the EU all revising higher. The US ending stocks were raised with a raise in US production as well. Wheat will continue to keep its eyes on the Black Sea, which as we have learned can be unpredictable.

 

Overview:

Business as usual with no big surprises in the June report as the USDA left US production estimates untouched. The USDA also left Chinese imports the same with 23 million tons or corn and 100 million tons of beans. The lack of any major news in the report was expected but the lack of any real bearish surprises was welcome. As it starts to heat up many areas will still be looking for rain, especially in the WCB that was lacking subsoil moisture to begin with. Forecasts will be the most watched thing moving forward as the inconsistencies in models does little to ameliorate any concerns.

 

December 2023 – Corn

November 2023 – Beans

July 2023 – Wheat

Via Barchart

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

Disclaimer

RCM Ag Services is a registered DBA of Reliance Capital Markets II LLC. Trading futures, options on futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions are complex and involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Loss-limiting strategies such as stop loss orders may not be effective because market conditions or technological issues may make it impossible to execute such orders. Likewise, strategies using combinations of options and/or futures positions such as “spread” or “straddle” trades may be just as risky as simple long and short positions. There are no guarantees of profit. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. You may lose all or more than your initial investment. You should not rely on any of the information herein as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments. Opinions, market data and recommendations are subject to change without notice. Reliance Capital Markets II LLC shall not be held responsible for any actions taken based on this website or attached links. Parties acting on this electronic communication are responsible for their own actions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.