Category: Agriculture

25 Mar 2022

AG MARKET UPDATE: MARCH 17 – 24

Corn has continued to trade in the same range since early March as the markets wait for next week’s acreage report from the USDA. This is a major market-moving report historically, so expect volatility either way. IHS Markit’s current estimates were for 91.42 million acres of corn, while Pro Farmer came out with 91.9 million. While these numbers seem realistic and may ultimately be right, I would be surprised if the USDA came out with anything lower than 92 million. The big question is, will higher inputs cause fewer acres even though there are higher prices, or will it be flipped? All eyes will be glued to the markets for the report, with the only other market-moving news until then will be developments in Ukraine.

Via Barchart

Soybeans continued their steady climb while corn and wheat calmed down. Next week’s report will be important for beans as well. Some analysts expect more bean acres this year as some farmers switch corn to beans in favor of lower input costs. IHS Markit estimates 88.58 million acres while Pro Farmer estimates 87.8 million. This is a good size difference showing uncertainty around the bean number with prices this high. South America’s weather has become less newsworthy so expect the market to position itself into the report unless there is any unforeseen news.

Via Barchart

Wheat’s craziness cooled off this week as many people have completely gotten out of the market until there is less uncertainty. With no significant news this week on the path of the fighting in Ukraine, the markets stayed in a smaller trading range compared to the past few weeks. The world wheat outlook is not very bright with the problems in Ukraine, China’s awful crop, and the struggles with the US crop, expect balance sheets to get tighter. World sanctions on Russia will play out in the wheat market if everyone stops buying Russian wheat; China will likely shift their buying to them and change up the trade dynamic of countries. The major news moving forward is still Ukraine.

Via Barchart

Cotton

Cotton has had a good few weeks with the May contract topping $1.30. Many in the industry have expected this move higher, but its reluctance to do it has been frustrating. With a tight market and world demand, this growing season will be important. Analysts estimate that between 11.7 and 13 million acres will be planted, which is much higher than last year’s 11.2 million acres.

Dow Jones

The equity markets made gains again this week as markets appear to be holding their breath, hoping that we have bottomed while also figuring out what to expect ahead. With several rate hikes expected this year, the markets will price those in accordingly and should not be shocked when it happens. Inflation concerns remain as oil prices bounced back over $100 and may stay there for the foreseeable future with no resolution to the war in Ukraine in sight.

Via Barchart

Podcast

RCM Ag Services put a unique spin on National Agriculture Day by going international. That’s right, we jumped right into international waters with Maria Dorsett from USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Services for an interesting discussion about linking U.S. agriculture to the rest of the world.

Each year, March 22 represents a special day to increase public awareness of the U.S.’s agricultural role in society, so why not take it one step further by bringing in a global component? As the world population soars, there’s an even greater demand for producing food, fiber, and renewable resources. That’s why we’re taking a deeper dive into the USDA’s trade finance programs, like the GSM-102, which supports sales of U.S. agricultural products in overseas markets and supports export growth in areas of the world that are seeing some of the fastest population growth.

So, jump aboard (no passport needed), as Maria discusses how U.S. companies use GSM-102, what the program features, and the benefits that it offers!

 

 

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

24 Mar 2022

GROWING FOOD FOR THE GROWING POPULATION

According to estimates compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), by 2050, farmers worldwide will need to produce 60 percent more food to feed the growing population, which is expected to hit roughly 10 million. We talk more about that in our What It Takes To Feed the World Infographic, but to grow more food, it’s essential to look into where food production begins, and that starts with seeds and chemicals.

The seed and chemicals that create the crops come from various companies and countries (including Russia). Input prices have been the talk of late, with prices, inflation, and supply chain issues impacting the industry. Seed and chemical economies are not much different from other parts of the global economy. Some countries are the leading global supplier of components in the industry, think China with chips for the automotive industry. 

How do seeds and chemicals help feed the world, and what are some of the benefits of this stage in the food production cycle? We’ll discuss the answers to these questions and more below.

Seeding The Ag Industry

Large players like Bayer (Monsanto) and BASF in Germany, Corteva in the U.S., and Syngenta in China play a significant role in the international seed trade. While these major players contribute significantly to seeding the globe, many other cutting-edge companies support the producers and distribute their seed and chemicals through local Co-Ops or companies like Helena Agribusiness

The global commercial seed market is estimated to be valued at $63 billion in 2021 and is expected to grow with a CAGR of 6.6% through 2026, based on HNY Research. With the increasing cost of R&D and advancements in farming, it is easy to see how this industry will keep growing. 

Thanks to a growing population and acceleration of global wealth, the demand for higher protein diets will continue to rise, putting even greater pressure on the production side of the equation. Historically, the majority of grain produced is utilized for animal feed. 

However, with emerging market countries like India and Nigeria requiring more nutrition, there is even more push for plant-based proteins. This only means one thing for seed and chemical companies – it’s time for scientists to get to work!

Genetically modified seeds currently are slightly less than half the market, but many experts see the growth potential as exponential in the years ahead. While the “non-GMO” crowd has seemingly gotten more prominent in recent years, it is crucial to take note of the benefits of GMO seeds, such as resistance to insects and tolerance to herbicides. No matter which side of the fence you are on, GMO seeds continued development and use will be critical moving forward. 

A Closer Look Into Chemical and Fertilizer

At a high level, the chemical and fertilizers used in the ag sector range from pesticides, weed killers, and fertilizers used to help boost yield. 

Like seeds, chemicals and fertilizers come from many different companies and from all over the world. Some of the pivotal companies in the global supply of fertilizer are Nutrien out of Canada, Wesfarmers out of Australia, and Mosaic and C.F. out of the U.S. While these companies are substantial fertilizer companies, China and Russia are also major players in chemicals needed by farmers. 

The global chemical production side has come to light during recent weeks following sanctions being placed on Russia and Belarus (Russia’s close ally). As it turns out, 40% of the global exports of potash (Canada is #1) last year was provided to global farmers from these countries, read more about that here. The estimated effect is continued rising pressure on prices; perhaps, to the tune of an additional 12% on top of the 17% increase last year.

China has historically been a critical urea, sulfate, and phosphate supplier. While the U.S. is not China’s only buyer of these products, it is essential to note that all fertilizer and chemical prices have been raised due to China lowering exports. With the war now a problem and supply chain issues on top of it, we are likely to see elevated prices for the foreseeable future. 

Like GMO vs. non-GMO seeds, the chemicals and fertilizers used to raise yields will need to continue to advance to keep up with global food demand. While we need to be mindful and use these in sustainable ways, it is essential to note that we must grow more one way or the other.

In our podcast with Dr. Chana Prakash, we discuss what will be necessary moving forward to continue to farm for a sustainable future with a growing population; you can view that here:

All in, the seed and chemical components of the industry are what feed the world. Whether the crop is used for feed, meals, or even ethanol that goes into gasoline, with a growing population, it will continue to be essential to produce more as we face challenges with changing weather patterns, global warming, and now increased international conflict. 

But before you go…

Did you know that by 2050, the world is expected to feed almost 2 billion more people than we do today? As the global population continuously rises, a significant amount of food will need to be produced over the next 30 years. Check out our latest infographic here.

CONTACT AN AG SPECIALIST TODAY

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact us today to speak with an ag specialist at 888-875-2110!

22 Mar 2022

Linking U.S. Agriculture To The World With Maria Dorsett of USDA

RCM Ag Services is putting a unique spin on National Agriculture Day by going international. That’s right, we’re jumping right into international waters with Maria Dorsett from USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Services for an interesting discussion about linking U.S. agriculture to the rest of the world.

 

Each year, March 22 represents a special day to increase public awareness of the U.S.’s agricultural role in society, so why not take it one step further by bringing in a global component? As the world population soars, there’s an even greater demand for producing food, fiber, and renewable resources. That’s why we’re taking a deeper dive into the USDA’s trade finance programs, like the GSM-102, which supports sales of U.S. agricultural products in overseas markets and supports export growth in areas of the world that are seeing some of the fastest population growth.

 

So, jump aboard (no passport needed), as Maria discusses how U.S. companies use GSM-102, what the program features, and the benefits that it offers!

 

 

Quick Links from the episode:

 

Educational GSM presentations:

 

You can reach out to Maria at [email protected] & by checking out the links below:
18 Mar 2022

AG MARKET UPDATE: MARCH 10 – 17

Corn was pretty flat on the week, but it did not lack volatility. The war in Ukraine and the constant news make for wild swings on unconfirmed reports such as peace talks and Russian demands. The volatility has caused many headaches, but the volume has decreased, showing that many traders are watching from the sideline and not trading volatile rumors that may or may not be true. The next month of weather will be important as some areas of the US are very dry and will need moisture heading into the spring. Corn export sales were above expectations this week, helping the bounce back Thursday.

Via Barchart

Soybeans fell on the week as the news affecting beans is not solely out of Ukraine. South America has had better weather conditions the last couple weeks and forecasted ahead. While the drought conditions did plenty of damage to the crop early on, the improved conditions are good but not great to help out. Bean exports were within expectations this week as beans have traded relatively flat the last couple of weeks.

Via Barchart

Wheat’s volatility continued this week as the war in Ukraine continued. Reports of peace/ceasefire talks have been in the news that seems to move markets whenever a new one is reported, but the volatility will continue until there is a resolution. There will still be massive fallout from this war as Ukraine’s infrastructure will be devastated, and sanctions on Russia will be large. Ukraine’s crop year drastically change, and it will be hard to get a full read on the damage until much later. Rain fell on some of the drier areas in the US that grow wheat, but the market did not seem to care. For now, the news will continue to be Ukraine and Russia.

Via Barchart

Dow Jones

The equity markets rallied this week as investors aren’t sure if we bottomed but felt the market had fallen enough to be an excellent area to get back in. The fed decided to raise rates for the first time since 2018 raising it a quarter of a point. They also announced to expect six more raises as the year goes on to fight inflation. The market had already priced this news in, and after a short dip down, markets finished the day after the news higher. China has had a new round of Covid lockdowns, which is something to watch.

Via Barchart

Podcast

Tune in as biotech guru Dr. Channa S. Prakash discusses everything from Alabama football, genetics as one of the most extensive agricultural advancements, the most significant risk factors to feeding the world over the next 30-50 years, plus everything in between.

Why producing crop plants with a much gentler footprint on the natural resources will help feed the growing population. How 75% of the world’s patents in agriculture gene editing are coming from China. Understanding that trying to impose restrictions on our ability to grow food can be a considerable risk to agriculture. Listen to hear about these topics and more!

 

 

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

14 Mar 2022

AG MARKET UPDATE: MARCH 3 – 10

Corn made slight gains on the week with very volatile intraday markets. The Ukraine and Russian news continue to stay in the market and will likely dominate headlines until it ends. Other news worldwide is that South America got rains in southern Brazil and Argentina, with dry central and northern Brazil. Russian officials announced that they would suspend fertilizer exports through the end of the year, presenting a supply crunch across the world. This week’s USDA report was nonexistent in the markets as there were no surprises. As mentioned last week, Ukraine’s corn crop may not get in the ground as only 60% of seed is on farm; this will be important moving forward as world balance sheets get tighter.

Via Barchart

Soybeans made small gains this week despite the wild intraday volatility. The USDA trimmed South American production again in this week’s report as they continue to baby step lower to what will be a smaller crop. World edible oil prices were up on the week pulling bean oil and soybeans higher. The Black Sea area’s worry and trade have affected the oils market, not just wheat.

Via Barchart

 Wheat fell hard this week with an expanded limit down the day with a small bounce on Friday heading into the weekend. All the short wheat positions that were getting run over had the opportunity to get out this week with the move down. However, the unknown in eastern Europe and China having its worst winter wheat crop on record means there is still upside with volatility. Friday’s gains were welcome to see after three days of large losses. The cash market will be essential to follow as it will help determine the fair market value.

Via Barchart

Dow Jones

The equity market fell again this week as continuing war, and another record inflation number was challenging for the market to figure out. While the market seems like it is struggling to make up its mind, there are pockets that are performing alright. The world economic outlook appears to be teetering, and trying to digest what to do with Russia will be a major decider.

Via Barchart

Podcast

Tune in as biotech guru Dr. Channa S. Prakash discusses everything from Alabama football, genetics as one of the most extensive agricultural advancements, the most significant risk factors to feeding the world over the next 30-50 years, plus everything in between.

Why producing crop plants with a much gentler footprint on the natural resources will help feed the growing population. How 75% of the world’s patents in agriculture gene editing are coming from China. Understanding that trying to impose restrictions on our ability to grow food can be a considerable risk to agriculture. Listen to hear about these topics and more!

 

 

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

22 Feb 2022

The Leonard Lumber Report: It’s been an exciting week for futures

It has been an exciting week in futures as it traded each of the five sessions. There was continued volatility, but March closed virtually unchanged from a week ago. That’s progress. We saw that the CME upped the limits, and we’ll also see an article in the WSJ this week referencing the constant limit moves we have. Notoriety is good. At the same time, there has been a slow creep high in total open interest. 

It has been a while since the futures and cash markets were this close. However, we’re not sure the futures market is that close to the cash market after hearing numerous reports of cash trades over $1,400. It looks like the market has paused to take a look. 

Lumber has always been an industry that would buy into an uptrend and hedge into a downtrend, and there wasn’t much pre-positioning. The same is in place today where a switch is flipped, and we all see the panic on the buy-side. Then another switch is flipped, and you can’t find a buyer. This doesn’t take days or weeks but just hours. The massive cost of a carload of lumber is compounding the problem today. Since we don’t buy on the way down or sell up, there is a large void created on every move. 

The last time we sat around $1,200, the momentum indicated a potential for a $400 move in either direction, and it turned out to be down. May is $100 cheaper than March, and July is $100 cheaper than May. The futures market is trying to smooth out the downside, and the upside will organically be smoothed out with time. Coming into Monday, there is a controlled burn to the downside, but the upside could find some running room. 

We all know that any hint of better transportation will cause a sell-off. This week, we saw a little pressure from a BC mill finally shipping a few cars to the U.S. on Sunday, February 20. It just seems a little early to get the ball back.

  

Let’s Get Technical:

The focus here will be on the longer-term chart pattern and its momentum indicators. The most scrutinized area is the last gap left from 1114.90 to 1069.90. (Weekly) a closing of that gap in the March contract would be very negative. It should hold for now and then be an objective after expiration. The market is sitting right on a resistance line at 1264.30. It isn’t a firm point but does come off last year’s high. One positive to note is that the market made a new high on this move taking out the previous high from January. $1,336 is a new weekly high. Finally, if another leg is up, it will take a shot at the weekly gap of 1,514.80 to 1,540.00. The current RSI is at 68%. It hit 94% last year.

The technical read is slightly friendly but primarily neutral. The least resistance is up, as is most of the pain.

 

Weekly Round-Up:

Let’s take a look back at rising open interest. There is a new segment of the industry using derivatives for risk mitigation. Most of it is coming from the buy-side. This has been a slow-moving process but is now starting to bear some fruit. Obviously, our volatility keeps many out or limits their exposure, but they are around. The March contract shows more signing of a squeeze than any long-term relief. That said, this is a bottomless pit. The rollover will be violent this time, with the mills adding to the downside. We are again building a transit inventory mess, but the issues seem to have longer legs this time. It will drag through March expiration, but will it drag through May’s? 

 

Open Interest and Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

 

About The Leonard Report

The Leonard Lumber Report is a new column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Before You Go…

A special guest joins us for this episode of The Hedged Edge, who is well known for his many titles, which include Doctor, Editor-in-Chief, Dean, and Chief Academic Officer, just to name a few. Dr. Channa S. Prakash, Dean of the College of Arts and Sciences (CAS) at Tuskegee University, has served as faculty since 1989 and is a professor of crop genetics, biotechnology, and genomics. He is also well recognized for mentoring underrepresented minority students.

Tune in as biotech guru Dr. Prakash discusses everything from Alabama football, genetics as one of the most extensive agricultural advancements, the most significant risk factors to feeding the world over the next 30-50 years, plus everything in between. And as a bonus, we find out what sport he would be interested in playing if he went professional.

 

 

21 Feb 2022

Funding Food To Feed The World

How Financial Institutions and Insurance Companies Play an Essential Role in Feeding the World

The cost of farming has grown over the years, which means financial institutions are amping up their reviewal process for loans and increasing insurance deductibles for protection to reduce their loss risk. What does this mean to supporting food production for the world? Well, as part of our “What It Takes To Feed The World” series, we are diving into critical agriculture sectors and bringing awareness to their roles in the food production cycle.

Financial institutions and insurance companies are the starting point in the process and are essential in providing the necessary funds to farmers on through to commercial entities. For farmers, they help finance EVERYTHING from the seed and chemical to hedge lines for farmers to help manage their price risk and everything in between. For commercial and end user entities, financing includes loans to build and maintain infrastructure and logistics to short term bridge loans to buy directly from farmers on to their own hedge lines of credit to support carrying of positions both pre and post harvest.

What financial and insurance options are available to the agriculture industry, and how are they beneficial to farmers, commercials, and end users? We’ll discuss the answers to these questions and more below.

 

Farmer Direct Loans

Farm direct loans are loans that the government makes available via the Farm Service Agency, while banks provide similar farmer direct loans. In 2021 the FSA reported loan obligations of $6.67 billion. Meanwhile, in 2020, U.S. farm banks loaned $98.6 billion. The American Bankers Association defines farm banks as banks whose ratio of domestic farm loans to total domestic loans is greater than or equal to the industry average. These amounts show just how much money is needed to produce the U.S. crop each year before farmers even harvest and sell the crop. These loans range from rent payments to fertilizer costs to machinery. But farm banks aren’t just offering loans to the agriculture sector. In 2020 total bank lending reached $174 billion in farm and ranch loans (including the $98.6 billion). These banks play a significant role with billions in small farm loans and even microloans. Small farm loans are less than $500,000, and microloans are less than $100,000. These two categories alone totaled over $55 billion in 2020.

 

Hedge Margin Lines

Banks also help finance hedge margin lines to help farmers manage their price risk. By financing the hedge lines, banks allow farmers to place hedge positions in a brokerage account, protecting against adverse price movements that could lessen the value of their crop. When banks loan out money, they expect to be paid back; hedge credit lines are a tool banks use to help support the farmer being able to do so.  If your bank is NOT willing to extend a hedge line – please give us call!

By financing hedge margin lines, banks support the farmer and themselves. With loans comes default risk and hedging is one tool to help mitigate the price risk that ultimately will be how the farmer pays back the loan.

 

Banks and the Rest of the Sector

There’s no question that banks are involved in the food production supply chain. When you think about it, commercials, end-users, and other units that touch grain utilize bank loans to enhance their businesses. Like feed yards and elevators, end-users use banks to improve their infrastructure by adding more storage or drying systems, using short-term loans to purchase grain and make other improvements to their business. These improvements ultimately improve the efficiency of the entire system and potentially lead to  reduced costs of the final product, which helps the end consumer, people. Just like improvements to city and towns infrastructure are necessary, through the support of bank financing, these improvements are necessary to the health of the agriculture industry’s infrastructure.

Farming is not getting any cheaper, and more capital is required to produce excellent crops year after year. Banks’ loaning capacities play a major role already, but if we are going to keep up with growing demand in a growing world, their role will be even more critical going forward.

 

Crop Insurance

Crop insurance brings continuity to the industry year-over-year as the ups and downs of weather and prices can cost farmers millions of dollars if unprotected. There are two types of insurance for major field crops: yield-based, which pays an indemnity (covers losses) for low yields, and revenue that ensures a level of crop income based on yields and prices.

Insurance offerings and prices vary on where you are located and your land, but like other forms of insurance in your life, it is better to have it and not need it than need it and not have it. While the listed above are the main types of insurance, others can be purchased, like drought insurance for pastureland and hail insurance if your crop gets damaged by an ice storm. These are more specific to your geographic location but play an essential role.

Like banks, insurance companies help with the continuity of the agriculture sector. These companies along with government subsidy programs, provide the opportunity to continue farming when disaster strikes and threatens the financial stability of a farm.

 

How RCM Ag Services Partners Financial Institutions & Insurance Companies

For our Farmer Direct customers, RCM Ag Services partners with banks and insurance companies to provide our mutual customers daily expert market knowledge and advice. We are firm believers that the long term health and growth of our local farming communities requires a team approach that starts with the farmers and their banking and insurance teams.

For our commercial and end user customers, we are focused on evaluating profit margins and the cost of capital for managing the current and futures market risks.  Our Ag Services team is working directly with lenders, 3rd party credit suppliers, as well as USDA government programs to support the long-term financial health of the commercial business sector.

Along with market knowledge, our brokerage services allow us to establish hedge accounts that banks can fund with a credit line, as discussed above. Our brokers have over 150 years of combined experience in the market that helps them provide hedge advice that is customized to each operation, not cookie-cutter advice. Take advantage of these benefits and call one of our knowledgeable ag specialists today at 888-875-2110 or email [email protected]

 

18 Feb 2022

AG MARKET UPDATE: FEBRUARY 10 – 17

Corn made small gains on the week as grains did well across the board. The forecast for South America can’t seem to make up its mind switching back and forth on rain amounts. Argentina has consistently had rain in the forecasts, but what parts of the country and the amount has been inconsistent. Exports were better this week than last, but nothing crazy; potential conflict in Ukraine and further issues with the South American crop could see those numbers pick up soon. The markets are not open for President Day on Monday the 21st, so there is more time to develop around the world. Based on the Dec ’22 futures for corn after today, the February insurance price is $5.84 ¾.

Via Barchart

Soybeans were up slightly on the week but have been relatively flat (relative to other weeks) the last two weeks, as you can see in the chart below. The continued weather issues in South America and the Russia v Ukraine possible invasion have been the movers for beans just like corn and wheat. Bean exports this week were the best of the group, with a flash old crop sale being announced on Thursday. We have seen private estimates continue to roll in for production in South America and what to expect this year in the US. The USDA Ag Outlook Forum will start next Wednesday, and we should find out what they are expecting for the year ahead and how the US will affect balance sheets. The insurance price for beans is $14.22 ½.

Via Barchart

Wheat has been on a roller coaster the last two months with the ups and downs and uncertainties around Russia and Ukraine. A Russia invasion would be bullish for wheat as countries would shy away from trade with Russia, and Ukraine would stop exports as they try to keep Russia at bay. The Black Sea is a major world trade region. This conflict could lead to potential stoppages, shortages, or even a possible blockade in the region that would cripple a major trade corridor. Keep an eye on this developing story as it could have potential long-term consequences as the US has also threatened Russia with sanctions (they don’t seem to be fazed at all by Washington’s threats).

Via Barchart

Dow Jones

This week, the equity markets fell as confusion and concerns of post-Olympic wars between a few countries inch closer. Russia was reported to have changed their mind on invading Ukraine, only for that news to switch to them adding troops at the border. China invading Taiwan post-Olympics is also a possibility as that has seemed to be forgotten as the Russia news took over the market. Earnings season has been mixed with losers and winners in all sectors as inflation has begun to show up more in guidance for the year ahead.

Via Barchart

Podcast

Tune in as biotech guru Dr. Channa S. Prakash discusses everything from Alabama football, genetics as one of the most extensive agricultural advancements, the most significant risk factors to feeding the world over the next 30-50 years, plus everything in between.

Why producing crop plants with a much gentler footprint on the natural resources will help feed the growing population. How 75% of the world’s patents in agriculture gene editing are coming from China. Understanding that trying to impose restrictions on our ability to grow food can be a considerable risk to agriculture. Listen to hear about these topics and more!

 

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

11 Feb 2022

AG MARKETING UPDATE: FEBRUARY 3 – 10

The numbers came in above trade estimates but were lower than the previous months’ report. The USDA kept the U.S. ending stocks at 1.540 billion bushels and lowered the world ending stocks to 302.22 million tonnes while reducing Brazil’s yield. Following the report, it came off the highs for the day before roaring back up to end the day. Thursday’s trade was interesting as halfway through trading, the markets did a 180-degree turn and fell lower on the day after being sharply higher across the board for a large intraday range. This was brought on by producers selling and speculative positions taking profits. The large intraday volatility has not been as present in the market as this summer, but Thursday’s trade is a sign that volatility should be expected at these price levels. The USDA’s numbers for Brazil and Argentina are still above what private analysts and CONAB are reporting. The market seems to be on the analysts’ side when it comes to the struggles in South America. The weather outlook remains the same for the trouble areas as it will be hot and dry in the same areas and wet in the same.

Via Barchart

Soybeans continued their run higher despite Thursday’s pullback. The most significant change in the report came to soybeans as the USDA lowered Argentina’s production by 1.5 million tonnes and Brazil’s 5 million. As much of a correction that the USDA made, some analysts still feel these are too high, and their crop will continue to get smaller. With the continued hot and dry weather in Argentina and southern Brazil mixed with the wet harvest in northern Brazil, mother nature is not doing South America’s crops any favors. CONAB released their estimates on Thursday and were well below the USDA numbers, so it’s safe to listen to their numbers and analysts over the USDA right now, it would appear. The two-year chart is below so that you can see the journey of how we got to this point with the great run since early November. Thursday produced the same wild volatility as corn, which saw a 67 ½ cent range while falling off the highs.

Via Barchart

Dow Jones

The equity markets have been quieter lately, with small gains on the week, but the uncertainty of what lies ahead remains. The inflation number came in at 7.5% year over year, the highest increase since February 1982. With inflation sticking around and treasury yields jumping, the 10-year treasury topped 2% for the first time since August 2019; it is understandable why the markets have the jitters. Will the market hang out where it is, retest the lows, or try to continue to claw back its losses from January? The market can’t figure it out, so I won’t try to predict for you.

Via Barchart

Podcast

Tune in as biotech guru Dr. Channa S. Prakash discusses everything from Alabama football, genetics as one of the most extensive agricultural advancements, the most significant risk factors to feeding the world over the next 30-50 years, plus everything in between.

Why producing crop plants with a much gentler footprint on the natural resources will help feed the growing population. How 75% of the world’s patents in agriculture gene editing are coming from China. Understanding that trying to impose restrictions on our ability to grow food can be a considerable risk to agriculture. Listen to hear about these topics and more!

 

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

11 Feb 2022

The Leonard Lumber Report: Better Trading In Futures This Week

There was better trading in futures this week, but March opened the limit and locked. The back months had good volume, and July and Sept never hit the limit. At this point, you can exit your March shorts one way or another. That brings us to the next question: What does “life after limit” look like? If you take out the limit downs and the limit ups, we are sitting in the same area with the same dynamics. There is still good demand. Shipping out of the west is a mess, and trucking throughout North America is getting worse. And finally, we just moved closer to the Q2 buy.

The sell-off was a good indicator of a flow of wood through the system, and the rally right back indicates a continued fear that the flow will slow again. I think the industry is doing an excellent job keeping supplies flowing in. Since December, they have been buying “time” and fearing an upset chain. So today, it isn’t tomorrow’s ship time but rather next month’s ship time, and no one has that answer. 

Any more bad news from the supply side will set the market off again, while any slowing in demand will force another sell-off. Buckle up….

Let’s Get Technical:

Elliot Wave is not voodoo economics, but that was funny. The biggest takeaway is that markets trade in waves, and in percentage terms, the lumber futures waves are easing in the distance. The corrective wave ran into support and a 20% RSI at a higher level this time down, keeping the cycle positive. We are looking for the top end where the market hits real resistance. Historically, the 1st quarter has strong support and weaker resistance areas, which is seasonal and consistent.

Weekly Round-Up:

$1,200 is not a happy medium, and the risk in both directions is substantial. We have never been in a place that could potentially have a $400 push up or $400 down. Time will ease the upside pressure, and the downside will be around for a while. Position accordingly.

Open Interest and Commitment of Traders:
https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

About The Leonard Report
The Leonard Lumber Report is a new column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

Before You Go…
A special guest joins us for this episode of The Hedged Edge, who is well known for his many titles, which include Doctor, Editor-in-Chief, Dean, and Chief Academic Officer, just to name a few. Dr. Channa S. Prakash, Dean of the College of Arts and Sciences (CAS) at Tuskegee University, has served as faculty since 1989 and is a professor of crop genetics, biotechnology, and genomics. He is also well recognized for mentoring underrepresented minority students.

Tune in as biotech guru Dr. Prakash discusses everything from Alabama football, genetics as one of the most extensive agricultural advancements, the most significant risk factors to feeding the world over the next 30-50 years, plus everything in between. And as a bonus, we find out what sport he would be interested in playing if he went professional.