Category: Podcast

05 Jan 2023

Stock market outlook and Tax savings strategies for 2023 with Tim Webb

With every new year, there are new opportunities, and there’s no better time to dive deeply into the stock market and tax-saving strategies for 2023 than now. In our latest episode of the Hedged Edge, we’re joined by Tim Webb, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner from our sister company, RCM Wealth Advisors. Tim is no stranger to advising institutions and agribusinesses where he has been implementing no-nonsense financial planning strategies and market investment disciplines to help Clients build and maintain wealth and reach financial goals since

Inside this jam-packed session, we’re taking a break from commodities, and talking about the world of equities, interest rates, tax savings, and business planning strategies. Plus, Jeff and Tim delve into a variety of topics like:

  • The current state of the markets within the wealth management industry
  • Is there a beacon of hope, or is it all doom and gloom for the markets?
  • Other strategies to think about outside of the stock market and so much more!

 

Contact Tim Webb [email protected]

Visit rcmwa.com for more information and be sure to follow them on Twitter and check them out on LinkedIn

 

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Check out the complete Transcript from this week’s podcast below:

Stock market outlook and Tax savings strategies for 2023 with Tim Webb

 

Jeff Eizenberg  00:14

Welcome to the hedge edge by RCM AG services where we’re getting out of the field and onto the mic to bring you weekly market updates, commentary from commodity experts in monthly interviews with the biggest names in agribusiness. Welcome to the hedge edge and the first episode of 2023. As always, I’m your host Jeff Eisenberg. Today we’ll be taking a break from commodities and diving into the world of equities, interest rates, as well as tax savings and business planning strategies for the new year. Our guest today is Tim Webb. Tim is a close friend of our sister company, RCM Wealth Advisors, where he’s the Chief Investment Officer and managing partner. Tim has been working as a portfolio manager and advisor to families institutions, and agri businesses, implementing no nonsense financial planning strategies, and market investment disciplines to help clients build and maintain wealth and reach financial goals since 2003. Tim, welcome to the show.

 

Tim Webb  01:25

Thanks, Jeff, for having me. Appreciate it.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  01:29

Absolutely. Hey, last time we saw each other I think it was on the golf course. And correct me if I’m wrong, but pretty sure I was standing on a green that you drove Absolutely. Over the green went over.

 

Tim Webb  01:40

Yeah, I want to be clear on that it. It carried the green.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  01:47

Oh, is that possible? So you you grew up playing baseball. I mean, some people say golf and baseball don’t mix. But from what I see, it’s a perfect match.

 

Tim Webb  01:57

Well, you know, I, I’ve always been somewhat of a big hitter, I back and forth pretty much my entire career. And initially, it did not mix, I was having the banana slices all the way into the woods and all that other stuff. And if we’re talking advice here, I’m going to give two quick driving tips, I guess the first one would be try to transfer a little bit of weight to your front foot that helped me out a ton. And then really just kind of driving down into the ball and through it. And if you’re looking for power, the one thing that I’ve realized is that I do swing hard, that’s that’s neither here nor there. But where I generate my most power is because you’re in a small confined area, is you actually have to push down into the ground and up you have to figure out how to generate a lot of power from a very short period short area, right. So you can kind of drive my feet into the ground and then come up at the at the point of impact there. So Wow.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  02:55

So you’re not not only you know, offering financial advice, you’re also operating Golf Tips. Which one did people take you up on more frequently? I guess is the question.

 

Tim Webb  03:05

Well, the only benefit in golf I can do is with my drive. My short game is horrendous. So but ya know, it’s I enjoy it. I joined the league and over the past three years, so I’ve improved markedly my golf a little bit. So I get out maybe, I think maybe, you know, I try to get in 18 holes a week if I can. Yeah, so it’s nothing nothing great. I’m I’m I’m a mid 80s shooter. So don’t other than the dry. That’s all I can impart on this conversation. Okay, well,

 

Jeff Eizenberg  03:39

I’ll put you on my scrambled team for sure. Next, next time we play, but I do well, I do. Well, it scrambles. Yeah, on percent. Great. Well, yeah. So excited to have you here today. You know, we’ve been obviously working together in parallel for a long time now. And, you know, the markets. We’re going to talk about a little bit about the markets. And you know, before we jump into that, I think it might be helpful, just for anyone listening in just to give a little bit of your background. I mean, you you started our CM malt advisors over 10 years ago with with Bobby shorts, and you know, the CEO of RCM alternatives and in ag services. What What can you tell us about this journey? I mean, 10 years ago, you know, all we had to do is stick your money in the markets and we’re looking pretty good. 10 years later, but it’s different world now.

 

Tim Webb  04:28

Yeah. Well, especially in the in the overall wealth management space as a whole. So I started my career back in 2003. Started with a great regional firm, ag Edwards, and after about four years, four or five years in there, I remember going down to a meeting at their St. Louis campus with the CEO. And I won’t mention names with that but the CEO was asked and it was it was like around 2007 I guess right around there. was closed for Friends with the Gallatin family who had started ag Edwards. And I remember the question was, Hey, would you ever sell this firm? And he’s, you know, quote unquote, Over my dead body? Would I ever sell this firm? 11 days later he sold the firm. Right? So. So from there, you know, it went to, I think it was y cobia. At the time. I can’t remember offhand. I didn’t necessarily want to stay with with that firm. So I ended up transferring over to Smith Barney at the time, then you hit kind of the the 2008 financial crisis. Citibank broke the buck. Smith, Barney was kind of their crown jewel of, you know, assets for the bank at that point. It was, it was at that point, it seemed as if we were gonna be buying some other groups. I remember calling some of my friends on the street, like, oh, they were calling me. I said, I hear we’re buying you there. I got we here we’re buying you like okay. Eventually they, Morgan Stanley and Smith, Barney decided on a joint venture, which eventually turned into Morgan Stanley, long term, they were offering up some deals, I didn’t necessarily want to take any kind of deal from them. So at that point, in 2009, I opened up in independent office, went to the RIA model, right, so there was, you know, broker johrei, but it was through a local outfit. And that local outfit was eventually swallowed up by Charles Schwab. So that

 

Jeff Eizenberg  06:34

was an interesting time, because the RA model is so different than the traditional stock brokerage model, right? You’re really taking an entire look at someone’s financial plan, as opposed to what stock Can I pick? That’s going to me the next Tech tech, tech stock or something along those?

 

Tim Webb  06:51

Yeah, it totally true. And the biggest thing with that is, is really kind of becoming a fiduciary, right? So once you go to the gray model, it’s so much different than it was back when I started in 2003. When you go into the RA model, you’re sitting on the you’re sitting as a fiduciary to your clients, and you’re sitting on the same side of the table, right? You’re not making any Commission’s off of their business, you’re charging a fee for service and advice, adding value and and not necessarily pushing any product to any one person and or client, right. So the idea is what is best for that individual, that corporation, that that non for profit, that is going to help them and all those people that might be within that organization, and you push forward from that standpoint now, from an overall business, I couldn’t make that any better. Right? So, you know, there’s from the situation of having to say, Okay, well, what is best? How do we get a go the best? How do we go about getting our clients to that end goal. And that’s where the IRA model, in my opinion, the registered investment advisor model is best suited for the lion’s share of clients, and you’re starting to see even the big banks and all that stuff, trying to push their business more towards that arena.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  08:01

Yeah, listen, everybody is an expert at their business right at this stage in the game. And we want to let them stay experts at what they do and bring you in to piece together the the financial elements of it makes sense. And then also your global network, additional service providers or partnerships, allow for you to then also kind of be at the helm of some of these organizations, whether it’s a, you know, a farm, in an elevator, you know, somebody that’s touching in traditional agricultural businesses, or, you know, obviously, not inside our markets, but other types of companies and businesses that you work with elsewhere.

 

Tim Webb  08:42

It’s great point, one of the one of the main things to and where you can continue to drive value for your clients is trying to figure out ways that you can help their business in every aspect, right? So be it bringing specialty Farm Insurance to two different groups, bringing estate planning wills, getting, you know, essentially negotiating on behalf of your clients with these groups, going to different different outfits that may do those services and bringing some volume to them, so that you can bring the volume discounts back to your clientele, and say, Okay, well, here’s, here’s how, here’s what we’ve negotiated. This is, you know, these are the experts in these fields, and they’re gonna bring this to you, and it’s most likely going to be less costly than you would going out on your own right. So that that’s kind of the big thing and kind of bringing that full full suite of services to whatever client base we’re chatting with organization or otherwise, right.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  09:42

All right, well, we’ve got the elevator pitch down now. So let’s flip over to the important stuff. What is not that that doesn’t count, but people want to know and I do too. Where are we going with stocks, the stock market, and interest rates coming up here in the new year? Here we’re, you know, obviously market end of the year down terribly, almost as bad as 2008. And then you reference the 2003 period when you started. That was another terrible period. But you know, I guess the first question is, is there a beacon of hope? Or is it all doom and gloom here? What are you and your team looking at right now?

 

Tim Webb  10:21

Yeah. So you know, obviously, you know, the big in maybe you’ll have questions about this later. But the big thing that are on a lot of our client’s mind is, okay, is there a recession coming? Or I believe we already are in it. Some, some, some don’t.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  10:36

And I’ll tell you, my Costco bill, telling you we were going to be in recession, I can’t believe the prices, I’m going to hit the brakes and sending my wife to the store.

 

Tim Webb  10:44

Yeah, yeah. Inflation. That’s obviously another big situation. And, we try to inform on that as well. But yeah, with respect to is there a recession kind of looming hovering over us? The answer, in our opinion, is yes. Right. So we’re kind of projecting it out probably for the second half of 23, which is where it looks most likely. Everybody who’s been in the markets understands that this past year, was it didn’t matter what you’re in, you could have been in stocks, bonds, Bitcoin, silver, gold, you know, it seemed like everything was, you know, really tracking backward. And in a lot of ways, in a typical recession, some of those things might have worked, you know, even in the corporate bond space, or those high grade corporates or, you know, mortgage-backed should have done a little bit better than they did. So everything kind of really took it on the chin, some of the numbers, you have

 

Jeff Eizenberg  11:33

to take a pause there and make a plug for the alternative side here, you know, following CTAs, fad had a great year, you know, double digits. So let’s not forget about where there can be potential is commodity since we’re on a commodity podcast. Remember, there was there were some positive numbers out there.

 

Tim Webb  11:55

No doubt. I’ve been seeing those numbers from you guys. And they are quite impressive. I would I would definitely agree with that. Yeah, so there, I mean, yes, there’s, as you know, there’s always someplace where you can kind of look, it was just more difficult and 22. Right. There was in, you know, to put it put it lightly, I guess, to really look back, you know, because they started raising interest rates so aggressively and above expectation, wait way beyond what they were predicting, right. Like at the beginning of 22? I believe they were kind of coming out saying, Yeah, we’re going to probably do employment looks good. We’re probably going to have 325 basis point rate hikes throughout the year of 22. Well,

 

Jeff Eizenberg  12:36

exactly. It just complete change, of course.

 

Tim Webb  12:39

Yeah, they did that in one month, right. So we’ve just seen this happen fast and furious. And the other big thing that we look at, and you know, what, everyone’s there’s a lot of froth still left in the markets, right. So, you know, from a standpoint of empty money supply, right. So they’ve, there has just been because of the pandemic and everything else like that there has been a flood of money that’s been put out there, be it through different government programs, things like that different bills that have passed, but there’s been a lot of money, and that has kind of pushed through the system and still has a way of working, it has some more time that it has to work its way through the system if you will. So now, you know, moving into 23, you can see the Federal Reserve kind of saying, Okay, well, we’re, we’re looking at some of these things we’re at we did just did a 50 basis point hike, some are projecting another 75 basis points. And one thing that we’re seeing a lot of is that, you know, if 22 is any indication, I don’t necessarily think the best place to look is what the Federal Reserve is kind of touting right now. Right? Of course, and

 

Jeff Eizenberg  13:49

dead wrong. I mean, why should we believe right?

 

Tim Webb  13:52

I agree. And the worst part of it all is, is the markets are trading based off of their, what they’re saying and all that other stuff. It’s not based off of fundamentals. It’s not based off of even, you know, tracking, it’s all based on what is the Federal Reserve going to do? What are they going to say? What are they going to project out? And that’s no, that’s, that’s not a good place to be overall. And I do think in 23, that’s that that narrative starts to change a little bit, right. So eventually, the markets do tend to always go back to okay, what’s the valuation that I’m at right now? Right, where, where is where can I find future growth and, and future prospects for different companies? And once we start getting back to the fundamentals, which we do believe will happen in 23, be it in the bond markets, be it in the stock markets? We do think we get back to some normalities where we’re going off of what you know, earnings because obviously, you’re going to have compression in earnings. You know, there’s going to that’s going to trickle through. That’s probably what’s going to trigger the recession that we think is forthcoming. On top of it, you’re gonna probably see that the Federal Reserve is going to kind of keep their Put on the gas a little bit. So you get closer to more of a 5% unemployment rate, versus staying at the three-and-a-half word that it’s technically quoted at right now. Right. So, you know, so there’s gonna be some of that coming off the system, which, you know, with respect to stocks, that we don’t necessarily think that’s the best growth environment. So for some of those cloud computing companies, some of those, you know, even even some of the big aggregate tech companies, they’re facing headwinds throughout that. So, you know, our goal is kind of looking at, okay, what dividend paying stocks value based stocks are we looking at, we know, there’s going to be some volatility that comes through here, you can utilize some option work with that utilizing covered calls. And we have something we call our triple income strategy where we’re doing different things to kind of generate synthetic Nan, we want to call it synthetically generate options, premiums to kind of get some of these, these dividend paying stocks at a better price, do a covered call or call spread on it on the back, and really kind of mitigate some of that volatility that, you know, we saw throughout 22. So we think that that strategy in 23 looks to be a little bit stronger than saying, okay, everything is dip back so bad in the tech space and the growth companies that it’s gotta be a good time to buy it.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  16:21

Is really, what if I could summarize what you’re saying there, at the end of the day, hope is not a strategy, right? And you you really have a view of where where things need to go? Or are potentially going and then being tactful in how to allocate? You know, really kind of falls on your shoulders a bit, I guess, you know, a question that comes to mind is, historically, people have been successful with passive investments, versus the active type of investment strategies. And I know, you and your company that you’ve mentioned, your, your strategy, you know, have had quite a bit of success on the on the being the tactful, or, you know, active side. Maybe just talk a little bit about that. Not too not too detailed. I mean, you’re talking to commodity traders. So, you know, we understand, you know, covered calls and options, strategies, but just high level what, what are some of the more active approach? You take?

 

Tim Webb  17:22

Yeah, yeah. And speak briefly on the past stuff. Yes, over the past 10 years, with easy money. It was kind of a point and shoot situation, right? You know, it was, if there’s 500 targets out there, and you hit a few of them yet, it’s gonna it’s gonna be fine, right like that. That’s that that’s what was good under easy monetary policy, obviously, it’s gotten a lot more difficult. Now that the volatility is ticked up. And also, that has come to kind of a screeching halt from an empty money supply aspect, right. So that, that in 22, right around October is pretty much gone, too. It’s still a little bit going on, but it’s pretty, pretty slow down substantially, right. So with respect to that, you know, the way the way that we look at it for 23 going going forward, you take a passive index, you know, let’s just say the s&p 500, a lot of times people say, You know what, I’m gonna put that in there. Okay, so just based off of what I said before, that’s a market cap weighted average, right? So that the biggest companies in the world are going to have the most amount of exposure in that s&p 500 font. Right? Right. So you’re gonna own all the apples, the Google’s the Facebook’s meta, if you will, all of those, that’s going to be comprised of about 35% of your portfolio between 30 and 35% of your portfolio based on market cap weight. And, you know, you’re technically moving more towards kind of a technology based portfolio with respect to that. And in our opinion, in this upcoming year, the value base is going to be more the healthcare sector, you know, a little bit maybe, you know, financials have been hurt a little bit, but, you know, those potentially could do okay, being that we’re in a, you know, somewhat of a an abundance type of atmosphere with the Federal Reserve type of thing. So the one the one strategy that we employ is obviously, we want reoccurring dividends that have consistently increased over time that we think that are going to continue to, you know, they’re not going to get hurt too bad throughout any kind of recession, because they’re kind of their built in businesses. They’re the steady growers, if you can get four to 6% in market return, and you got a two to 4% dividend, you’re looking at a six to 8% Return overall. And sometimes you just got to take what’s given to you in that particular time. Right, you know, question

 

Jeff Eizenberg  19:36

Question comes to mind right there. So with cash rates as high as they are now three to 5% it was cash-rich companies are the ones that you’re thinking about because ultimately they’re going to earn interest on money it’s an excess cash plus potentially thrown off profit from the from the best business actual revenues. Is that something that you’re thinking about?

 

Tim Webb  19:57

Absolutely. Cash is king right? You know, that’s, that’s Always the, you know, we do what’s called discounted cash flow analysis or discounted cash flow, you know, kind of reporting on companies. So we’re always looking okay, what’s the cash look like? What’s their ability to continue to pay those dividends? What’s their growth model? Because, you know, be it with inflation still at high levels, right? There are certain capital expenditures that different companies were paying for in the past, right. wage growth was kind of moving pretty, you know, up pretty quickly, because, you know, you had easy monetary policy, and that kind of trickled down through all the, through all the ranks or so yeah, definitely cash is going to be king our opinion 2023 typically always is. But you know, those high valuation stocks, while they may be cash rich, they’re still trading in multiples that are well beyond what we think that, you know, could continue in 23. There. So it’s just more of a conservative approach, right, just just for to start off the year. It’s not that we can’t pivot it, you know, because at some point, I don’t want to be all doom and gloom on this. I do think, at some point, there’s going to be a great buying opportunity, both in bonds, because those have retracted so much. And even in those growth stocks. I mean, I just I think the market is waiting, somewhat for an all clear sign. But I want to put that in perspective as well. Right. So we’ve just gone through 12 months of the market, you know, starting in January, the market just started tanking and 22 going down, going down. I’ve had a couple of pockets. We had about nine or 10 situations where the market tried to rally and failed throughout 2022. We do think that tends to continue into 23. A little bit. And but with that said, if we do go into recession, markets will be trying to get out don’t they’ll be the first things to recover, right? So typically, recessions lasts anywhere from two to 18 months as a whole. Right? That includes 2008 and blues back for the past 50 years. So, you know, we’re 12 months into kind of a retracement in, in equities. And we do think that, you know, I don’t think we’re gonna hit the long end of that 18 months, but I think for the first couple of quarters, I think it makes sense to play it safe. dividend payers, things like that. The other thing is I have not this is something that we’ve been doing, we’ve been kind of doing a laddered CD strategy. I haven’t bought CDs for DVDs.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  22:21

I mean, are you talking about the ones that we listened to on our old disk man? Or what does it say?

 

Tim Webb  22:29

Well, it just, you know, the appetite for risk right now is very, very low is what I would say with the base that we deal with, right? So that’s also if you look at it from the contrarian standpoint, too, that’s also an opportunity like you, you may want when things get it’s that old Warren Buffett, you know, saying is, you know, be greedy when others others are fearful, we’re starting to hit some peak fearful levels right now, which, from our standpoint, we look at that as an indicator of good times ahead a little bit, right. So when we come out of these, these types of recessions, you have the largest you have, you can look back, and you’re going to be looking at 45 to 50% returns, potentially out of these recessions and and not too short time after that. And stocks will typically run six to 12 months ahead of that recession actually being over, right. So I don’t want to get too fine with with the strategy saying, Okay, you got to do this. And you got to wait until you get an all clear sign. That might not be the case, right. So it’s a situation of we know where we’re at, we’re about 12 months into this retracement, we know potentially could last 18 months but went a little bit longer. Okay. Historically, now we’re passing some levels, we had a pandemic, that was pretty large and had a quite a bit of an effect. We’ve had easy monetary policy that they’re pulling back. Oh, and by the way, we got $32 trillion in debt at the government level.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  23:51

Let’s not forget about that. Oh, another 1.7 here at the end of the year, whatever the number is. Yeah,

 

Tim Webb  23:56

I saw it. I think that’ll probably pass but we’ll see. So yeah, and it’s just one of those things where it’s, it’s, you know, you want to play it safe a little bit. But as I was saying, with the laddering of the CDs, we’ve been doing that, but we’re doing short term, right? So you’re able to get, you know, on one month, you’re getting 4% type returns 4.2%. Now, it’s annualized, right? So but we’re kind of laddering that so that we’re doing it month by month on that. And then as the interest rates are being risen, sometimes the CDs rates are raised, rising and kind, but we also want that liquidity available to us so that if the markets do turn, we don’t think they’re going to turn on a dime. But we do want to have some availability with some of the capital to then be able to put that to work for our long term strategy, right? In these situations, what we’re going through right now, you have to you got to kind of battle in the short term, find your pockets get in there. And then you know, at some point, we want to get back to a long term strategy because we do believe more Kids are going to do fine over a long period of time. Historically, they always have, you know?

 

Jeff Eizenberg  25:10

Yeah, I can completely appreciate the long term view. And I think that kind of leads into the next section here, which is kind of transitioning away from what markets are doing, or doing or anticipated doing to, you know, really building a business, long term business, and the planning and structure around that, I think is super important. And, you know, making money in stock in the stock market, or in equities or bonds is one thing. But the other side is also extremely important. How about saving money in taxes or, you know, preparing your infrastructure and your business, to be able to pass it on to either, you know, other employees through employee benefit programs, Aesop’s other things like that, or succession planning, if you’re a small business, small farm, or even just a small business passing things along those ways. So if you could just maybe shift over a little bit, Tim, and I mean, there are many other strategies that people should be thinking about that outside of just where do I, you know, what stock? Do I buy? What, you know? How high is the stock market?

 

Tim Webb  26:18

Gonna go from here? Yeah, yeah, good point. So, you know, from a tax planning standpoint, you know, for our clients, businesses, organizations, farmers, we, that is something that we concentrate pretty heavily on. So we’re fair, you know, the corporate benefit space is something that we’re in and we look at it very heavily, and we bring that to our business owners as a great benefit

 

Jeff Eizenberg  26:38

large or small businesses are absolutely,

 

Tim Webb  26:41

yeah, it could be individual, individual owner only type 401 K’s right. And they didn’t realize that they could potentially get, you know, $67,000 off of their taxable wages, by setting something up for themselves themselves and their wife, whatever, your wife and husband opposite way. So just it’s one of those things that we really try to help from a financial planning standpoint. So we’re talking about market strategy, things like that. This is more under the financial planning wealth management portion of of our business. So in the corporate plan space, and or even just retirement space, right. As I mentioned, just previously, we’re $32 trillion in debt, what does that tell us? Right? It tells us at some point, tax rates are going to have to go up quite a bit to pay down our debt. So what do we do? Do we just sit here and wait for those rates to go up and continue doing what we’re doing? Or do we take advantage of some of those government, or, you know, the IRS places that allows us to put money away into a tax deferred vehicle, or an after tax deferred vehicle, ie what the Roth portion of things, and take advantage of what we can while we can build those balances up? So that in the future, because we all know, they’re kind of kicking this can down the road, at some point, you know, it’ll come home to roost, right, there’s gonna be a situation, what we try to plan for is we don’t want that situation to happen, right, as you’re going into retirement, and then oh, by the way, tax rates had just moved up, 10%, you’re gonna have to work another two years, even though you didn’t necessarily plan for it, you know, from that standpoint, right. So we’re trying to prepare our investors for the the likelihood or potential that tax rates could go up in the future. And one of those ways to do it for businesses and individuals is getting the proper retirement planning piece to your business or your individual aspect in place, and be prepared for the unknown. Right. So that that’s, that’s the big takeaway I would give.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  28:41

Yeah. And I think that, you know, a lot of people end up just putting a lot of trust in their accountants to tell them exactly what to do here. And I think that the accounting community does a great job giving advice, but at the end of the day, you know, you partner with accountants to help them be more successful in advising their clients. And I think that, you know, any accountants that are listening in here? It’s, yeah, let’s let’s all work together. Because at the end of the day, if, you know, all parties are swimming in the same direction, it’s going to be a lot faster boat, right?

 

Tim Webb  29:11

Yeah. No, no doubt, a lot of times. So that’s part of that financial planning process overall, is, you know, many times, you know, and I often say like, your money is your business. Right? It’s it’s unique, right? So

 

Jeff Eizenberg  29:26

you got like Jim Cramer does isn’t that his line? Your Money, Your business or something along those lines?

 

29:32

I don’t know. I don’t steal it from him. You know, you might. Yeah,

 

Tim Webb  29:37

well, yeah. If he said it, oh, I must have heard it passing. But I’ve been saying that for years. So but it but it remains true, right? So you have to run your money like your employee, right? So you’re putting your employee out into different markets, and if they’re not being productive, then they’re a non productive employee, and you need to get rid of that employee in in some sense, right. So um, And, and that’s also a taxes, right? So what a lot of times in the financial planning process, whether you have your own account that you love working with, or if you’re looking for one we have partnered with, with different firms in that regard that have a very sound track record of working in the financial planning process. But we oftentimes will do conference calls, you got to have your own management team and run your business, right? So we work with them and their accountants to say, Okay, well, here’s what we’re looking at. It could be Roth conversions throughout time, it could be okay, here’s where we’re at from a business standpoint, we need to figure out a way to get $150,000 off of the company books, how do we do that, from a proper retirement planning standpoint, things like that. So that when you start getting that out, you’re paying less taxes year over year, and that money is now growing for you versus going reverse back to the government. That’s, that’s that where that starts to bifurcate. And you get, okay, we’re going up this way, as opposed to paying that way, right. So and then all of a sudden, you continue to build on that. And then come retirement, diversifying your tax liabilities, be it through some Roth pieces, and like cash balance plans, then you can kind of have a situation where you’ve, you’ve also done proper tax planning, all the way through your accumulation phase. And when you get into your withdrawal phase, because we always kind of talk about there’s two phases to your retirement. Right now, if you’re not retired, you’re building your business, you’re building your individual net worth, and you’re accumulating the assets that you need to build so that you can retire a lot of times, you’ll work for 3035 years. And with the advent of new medicine, and a lot of new cool kind of technology coming in from stem cell and all that other stuff, people are going to be living longer, potentially, right. And you might be working for 35 years, and then in retirement for 30 years, right. So now, you’re not making that income, how do we? How do we account for that in the future, and that’s what we, that’s where that financial planning process comes in. We basically look at it year over year, figure out how to get you to that end goal so that you don’t have to go back to work when you’re 82. You’re like, wait a minute, I didn’t, I didn’t realize I should have done that.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  32:12

Are you question? Are you going to be able to hit the ball, as long as you are at 82?

 

Tim Webb  32:17

I’m going to try? I definitely, you know, every nowadays, because I swing so hard. It’s a couple Advil before the round. And if you go after, right, maybe

 

Jeff Eizenberg  32:28

something else help as well, you know,

 

Tim Webb  32:31

hey, you know, it’s one of those things, you know, gotta get, you know, maybe, maybe it’s something to ease the pain, if,

 

Jeff Eizenberg  32:38

you know, this is it. And I think in terms of easing the pain related to retirement planning, I think that what you guys are doing is phenomenal, you know, excited to be partnered with you guys in this project adventure to, you know, get this story out and message to more of our, you know, farming and agri businesses that are out there, you know, small, medium, large, I mean, at the end of the day, particularly in agriculture, the business has grown exponentially, you know, a small country elevators, now a mid sized country elevator, a, you know, a farm that was historically, you know, had revenues, a million, or $2 million is now, you know, for six or 8 million in revenue. And, you know, there’s a lot to manage. And, you know, there’s a lot of work that needs to go into making sure that these businesses, they used to be more family run, continue to be family run, and then grow pass on, and ultimately are successful for many generations to come. And that’s why I think that, you know, this discussion is super important today, and really wanted to have you on here, Tim, so

 

Tim Webb  33:52

I’m an Indiana guy, we have a great, we got a great farming community out here and everything like that. So yeah, we’re, you know, obviously land and everything is done very well. And, you know, what we’d like to do is we like to bring those services out to them, because a lot of times, you know, there’s not many alternatives in a specific area for them, where they can take advantage of, of a different perspective or something along those lines, there may be only two shops in their entire, you know, 30 square mile radius, and they don’t want to travel out, you know, so we go out to them, we sit down and chat with them and all that stuff. So it’s, you know, just want to let people know that they have options that they can choose from, and it’s more of a holistic approach, looking at the whole, the whole piece of the puzzle for you. So,

 

Jeff Eizenberg  34:39

yeah, this has been great, Tim, really appreciate this. I think what we’ll do is catch up with you here, maybe quarterly to see what’s going on with markets and you know, touch base on any new new updates related to these planning strategies, as well and you know, other you know, we have an office out in Kansas, you got the new office there in Crown Point, Indiana, like you said, I mean right there in foreign country and continue to grow. So congratulations on the business. You know, one last thing I’d like to ask here before the end of before we wrap up is, you know, first of all, you’ve kind of already given us your market prediction, you think that market is forward looking and likely to make a turn around here at some point. I’m not going to stick number on it for you but you know, it sounds to me like that’s that’s your your one point. And then second is you know, if you had to kind of go back you’re 21 year old body right after you graduated college. And you know, you’re gonna go out you’re gonna go play in the Major Leagues. It sounds like let’s say, let’s say that didn’t work out what what extreme sport would you find yourself interested in getting after?

 

Tim Webb  35:59

I would think I you know, and I’m currently looking into it as well even at my advanced by becoming more advanced age here. Rock climbing also in an odd way boxing so my father was the US the heavyweight Bengal bot Bengal Bowl champion at Notre Dame for two years running. So, you know, that would have been extreme I guess it’s kind of a fight sport that would have been something you know, kind of on those stressful days in the markets are down, you know, you know, a little boxing would have been okay, too. But yeah, I’m currently I’m looking into some rock climbing options for myself. Not a ton out here in Indiana overall.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  36:40

Yeah, I was gonna say probably not right in the heart of rock climbing area, but can certainly I guess I know what to get you next year for Christmas. I get your boxing boxing bag or heavy bag? Yeah, yeah. For the office, you could play ping pong. And then you know, the loser after you lose to the young bucks, you have to hit the bag.

 

Tim Webb  37:01

You know, they can’t beat me just so you know. I mean, it’s as hard as they try. It’s not gonna happen. So

 

Jeff Eizenberg  37:07

Well, Tim, really appreciate you coming on the show. How do people get in touch with you? What’s the best place to reach you? Yeah.

 

Tim Webb  37:14

So we’re at obviously, you see the RSC mag services. So we are our CM Wealth Advisors. So it’s RCM w a.com. So you can check us out there. And you know, our number and everything contact information, a lot of our groups listed on there as well, not all of our strategic partners. But a lot of our interior group is listed on that. So yeah, we’re happy to help in any way that we can. Big or small to your point, it doesn’t matter to us. You know, if you have questions, it’s a no obligation. We’re here to help. If you need some help, give us a call.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  37:47

That’s perfect. Yeah. And then tie in with the services piece. We can obviously all we could talk about both sides of the market at the same time. So

 

Tim Webb  37:56

we’re gonna come on in, right. There’s more to come on that for sure.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  37:59

So yeah, we’ll keep keep everybody posted. But all right, Tim. Well, thank you so much for your time. Super, super great to see you. Next time, we’ll get another round of golf in and catch up for a game of ping pong. But thanks again and enjoy the rest of your you know that your new year coming up?

 

Tim Webb  38:20

Absolutely. Thanks for having me. Appreciate it.

 

This transcript was compiled automatically via Otter.AI and as such may include typos and errors the artificial intelligence did not pick up correctly.

22 Dec 2022

Populations are rising and so are food costs – can improved soil conditions save the day? With Russell Taylor of Live Earth Products

With the world population just crossing 8 Billion in November 2022, the details of what it takes to feed the world today and the question of what it will take to feed the world 30 years from now when the population is expected to approach 10 Billion is mind-blowing to many. Today’s guest, Russel Taylor, is an expert on the science behind bringing additional agriculture yield to life through soil health.

Russell Taylor is President of Live Earth Products, Inc., a premium producer of humic shale-derived products. He has spent 20 years mining, extracting, and marketing of humic acid-based products. Areas of experience include; agriculture, turf management, organic fertilizers, animal feed, and soil reclamation. His knowledge has put his company at the forefront of the soil health revolution.

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Quick Links from the episode:
For more information visit livearth.com and humictrade.org, follow @livearth on Twitter, and check out their LinkedIn.
Direct questions for Russell: [email protected]
And last but not least, don’t forget to subscribe to The Hedged Edge on your preferred platform, and follow us on Twitter @ag_rcm, LinkedIn, and Facebook.
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Check out the complete Transcript from this week’s podcast below:

Populations are rising and so are food costs – can improved soil conditions save the day? With Russell Taylor

Jeff Eizenberg  00:14

Welcome to the hedge edge by RCM Ag Services where we’re getting out of the field and onto the mic to bring you weekly market updates, commentary from commodity experts in monthly interviews with the biggest names in agribusiness. Welcome to the next episode of The Hedged Edge. As always, I’m your host, Jeff Eizenberg. With the world population just crossing 8 billion in November 2022. The details of what it takes to feed the world today, and question of what it will take to feed the world 30 years from now, when the population is expected to reach 10 billion is absolutely mind blowing. Today’s guest is an expert on the science behind bringing additional agricultural yield to life through soil health. Russell Taylor is President of Live Earth Products Inc, which is a premium producer of humic shale derived products. He spent 20 years in mining, extraction and marketing of humic acid based products. Areas of expertise for Russell include agriculture, turf management, organic fertilizers, animal feed and soil reclamation. His knowledge has put his company on the forefront of the soil health revolution. Russell, welcome to show.

 

Russell Taylor  01:42

Thanks for having me.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  01:44

All right, good deal. Well, again, we’re jumping right in here. And before we get started, everyone wants to know what’s in the background there. Why is there a pile of dirt over your left and right shoulder, what’s going on back there?

 

Russell Taylor  01:59

That’s a virtual background. It’s a picture of the mine, which I’ll cover a bit more on today’s call. It’s actually from the ancient tropical forests where we mine and it’s a picture of the deposit.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  02:10

As I believe and you’re in Utah, I looked up where you are Emery, Utah, it’s basically not too far from Moab. So if we kind of put that in perspective, you know, we all know the arches and everything out there. That’s the type of soil and ground that you’re dealing with out there. Yeah.

 

Russell Taylor  02:26

Yeah, yeah. So we’re underneath the sandstone cap. The sandstone has basically kept this ancient forest trapped for millions of years. But we’re in the middle of the Utah desert of all places.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  02:38

Yeah. And so getting into your background, you would say you grew up in the dirt. Sounds like you got involved with mining and some of this opportunity here, you know, from a young age. Is that true?

 

 

 

Russell Taylor  02:53

Yes. So my father opened the mine in the early 80s. At the time, I was nine years old. And he would be out there drilling the holes, and I’d be getting the dynamite ready.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  03:03

it’s with them, I played with them at ease and throw them in the pond and try to kill frogs. So does that count?

 

Russell Taylor  03:09

Yeah, close. But my experience felt like work. I grew up around it, you know, to be in the industry for that long. It’s hard not to learn a lot of things. After college, I’ve been working here exclusively. I’ve been with Live Earth as Vice President since 95. I’ve also been the President of the Humic Product Trade Association for 10 years. I was involved with humic long before it was cool, but that’s implying that the humic industry is gaining traction now.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  03:43

No, and I think that that’s really what we’re dealing with here today. And part of the reason why I wanted to get in touch with you is that, you know, here we are, we’re in an environment where we have rising input costs to farmers, we’ve got growing world populations, and it’s just a very timely discussion, to figure out how it is that other people or companies like yours are helping the world get ready for the next phase of real agricultural growth. And, you know, we have a lot of farmers that we work with, we work with a lot of elevators and you know, and consumers of commodities. And for them, they need to buy the products, right, or they’re producing them. And, you know, the question starts to come to mind are, what is it that can be done outside of just, you know, the traditional, you know, soil kind of background with the with the soil and then plant the seeds fertilized and go, you know, are there more things that can be done and so, bringing you on here, it sounds like you’ve been doing this since the 80s. Clearly, you have a good idea of some alternative solutions and seeing an alternative As in our background, love to kind of dive in. So yeah, share with us a little bit.

 

Russell Taylor  05:05

Right. So we’ll start from the beginning and work backwards a little bit. The deposit we mined is an ancient plant deposit. So imagine a rich tropical forest, where all that material is stacked up underneath that forest. That’s what we have. Now, why is that necessary? And the reason is, you know, you’ve usually got a soil that doesn’t have sufficient organic matter, or you’ve damaged your organic matter through cultural practices, and telogen, and a lot of other things. And so farmers are finding benefit by adding these products back. There’s been a big disconnect between fertility and soil health. And those are completely separate topics where you can add something that adds fertility to the soil, which will yield crops that can be detrimental to soil health. And soil health includes variables like structure, water conservation, and nutrient retention. And so as your soil health decreases, a lot of those other problems come to the forefront. And so, as an industry, we’re looking forward and saying, okay, what can we do? What is going to be needed in the near future, and with limited resources? As far as fertilizer, and nutrients, limited water, and also reduction in land, all these 1000s of pristine acres are to be converted into roads and houses and other things. So it’s kind of a triple witching effects, where you see a lot of things competing for the same resources. And we’re ignoring soil health. So it’s extremely problematic.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  06:44

Now, you’re, you’re talking about mining and ancient forest, I think he told me on the phone, or beforehand, here 70 million year old forest, that is essentially it was a tropical, you know, equivalent of the rain forest today. You know, mining and organic matter, don’t usually go hand in hand, right. But everything that I’ve read, and you’re telling me is that there is a large deposit of organic matter in your area, that you’re able to mine extract. And then I assume further process for delivery out to farms, other agricultural systems, whether it’s, you know, I saw you’re involved with the Rose Bowl, and some other things like that. So maybe just walk us through, I mean, how much how much matters there? And is it unlimited or what’s what’s going on? Well,

 

Russell Taylor  07:46

We’ve received 1000s of acres of mineral leases over the years. We’ve been mining for the past 30 years. So, in the grand scheme of things, we’ll be here for a while. When you talk about organic matter, you need to break it into two categories, active organic matter, which is being broken down by your microbes, and then the leftovers passive organic matter, which the microbes aren’t breaking down any further. As a farmer, you know, when you’re trying to contribute organic matter back, it’s usually in stover and corn stocks. So, you know, in a normal system in nature, those things are being returned to the soil and building up your soil organic matter. So you see the cultivation over time that farmers are slowly decreasing the organic matter. And your organic matter is your storehouse, your pantry, where you store nutrients, store water, and create room for microbes and oxygen and all those things that plant X and used to live. So by adding the product that we’re selling, which is humate, you’re kind of backstopping that process. You might not be returning those organic compounds back to the soil through the crops, but you’re actually able to add this to help build the soil organic matter through other means.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  09:07

And that’s a big deal right now with areas especially there in the West. I mean, it’s so dry, you’ve got drought conditions, you know, if you could hold on to more water, then that’s a bonus. Right?

 

Russell Taylor  09:18

Right, right. And it’s kind of a catchy thing, right? You use less because you lose less. But it’s true. You know, a lot of times, we’re seeing water loss and nutrient loss just simply happen, because there’s not enough organic matter to hold those nutrients and water into the soil profile longer. And the hard part is, we’re breeding our plants to be these racehorses, for lack of a better word. We’re building these really high power hybrid plants that have to have extreme amounts of energy to perform properly. Suddenly, soils just can’t sustain those nutrient loads and have a lot of waste. It was really easy for us to be wasteful when things were inexpensive? You know, a year and a half ago, two years ago, urea was $250 a tonne, right? Last May I think it hit $1,200 a tonne. So, I mean, look at the cost difference to the farmer and say, Wow, this is a big difference, how do we get more efficient? Because those conversations were, they weren’t being held as much because it was so cheap. So now is the time where people are looking at companies like us and saying, oh, okay, let’s talk about conserving nutrients, making those things last longer, because all of a sudden, they got expensive, and that’s hitting my bottom line in a big way.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  10:35

So okay, you know, that’s, that’s right. And we’ve got input costs have gone through the roof that Russia Ukraine, raw war has caused for increased pricing on the urea, it seems like fertilizer prices are coming back down, which is a good thing for the farm and for the inputs. But you know, supplementing it with what you’re doing now, you said you using 20 to 30 acres of the 1000s, you have access to what does it look like for you to actually harvest or extract a lot of this, this this matter? And then sell it large scale? I mean, are you are you targeting, selling the product to large seed and chemical companies as a mix in with some of their current fertilizers? Are you trying to go direct to farmers? What is the kind of the business model here to you know, help direct people down your path?

 

Russell Taylor  11:29

Sure. So we are a family business. Owned by my father, operated by myself, my brother, and we are small, right? So we work through dealers, there’s no sense for us to, as a small company we try to recreate the wheel, you know, find a local agronomist and get them hired on. So we sail through distribution through a local farmer, co-op. So in Utah, for example, if you went to Intermountain Farmers Association, you would find our products readily available through their cooperative. We sell through random cooperatives within the United States, and also through some ag dealers. So that’s where you get our product, you know, make sure you’re talking to AG dealer and getting in the process.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  12:05

If this was Shark Tank, I’d be asking you, you know, who do you have your large distribution with? And, you know, try to get you in with bear or somebody like that, right. So let’s see what we can do.

 

Russell Taylor  12:20

Yeah, we have some of the largest distributors in California, for example. Penny Newman, great company distributes our products and Penny Newman’s huge and we’re happy to be a partner with that company. Some of the areas where we have less distribution, the further you get to the east, obviously, you know, freight becomes an issue. And prices get a little more sensitive to the farmers. But we distribute nationally, internationally, we sell these products as raw materials and extracts. So what you see there behind me, that’s just a picture of the raw deposit. And we’ll just take that the Sansa layer on top glass and remove it. And just take an excavator and share it. It’s soft, brown dark material, and screen it granulate it and sell it as a raw material. We also do some extracted ingredients; we sell liquid humic acid and liquid fulvic acid. What’s interesting about this deposit, you’d mentioned, you know where we’re selling it, is it going to just ag? The answer’s no. We sell into ingredients and dietary supplements, cosmetics, animal feeds, and fertilizers. And you’re thinking, well, that’s kind of an odd thing. But this is an old plant deposit. And it’s clear full of minerals. So sometimes on the label, it says “minerals”, that’s us, because they’re using it as a background, trace mineral, got it?

 

 

Jeff Eizenberg  13:31

And now it’s started, I started to think about okay, you know, we’re talking to the beginning, that, you know, we really need to focus on soil health, for around the globe to grow and increase the amount of yield of food that we can actually make available to the world population. Are there other types of deposits like this, or areas that you and your company could target around the globe to really just replicate your business and say, you know, sub Sahara Africa or, you know, China or something along those lines.

 

Russell Taylor  14:01

You know, for a company, we’re not wanting to take over the world, only all these deposits, we actually have some friends and peers in our industry through the humic product trade association that are doing similar things. So if you’re looking for a deposit in the United States where you know, we’re not reaching, go to humictrade.org and look at the member section, you’ll see a list of members that are also our peers in the industry selling and manufacturing humic acids. Now you make deposits vary in their parent material. So, you know, 75 million years ago, we were set by tropical forest, some places had grasslands or swamps, and so or peat bogs and so what made their humic deposit was a different pair of material. So they’re all a little bit different. Some might have higher humic values or lower fulvic values. And so they will vary in what they describe as age range and decomposition. So you know, some are very immature like in Canada you got those peat bogs that are fully kind of no longer peat, but slowly transitioning into these deposits. And in the listeners minds imagine, you know, when there’s an apple turned into compost, it’s a process right you know decomposition, the same thing is occurs with this old plant material, you got an ancient forest that fell down, and then it got deposited in overtime with heat and pressure. It hasn’t turned into coal yet, but it sure broken down from what it was. So that’s kind of where it’s at is somewhere between peat moss, and cool.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  15:30

Well, I’m definitely buying a bag this year from my, from my garden here in Ohio, I’m going to need it let’s let’s, let’s move on a bit here, this, this is a super interesting step, you know, the way that, you know you guys have even started this business and grown it over the years. And the fact that you’re also involved with, you know, others that really kind of as an association and attempt to, you know, kind of share the wealth. What do you think of so so you’re kind of sitting in a unique spot that you’re talking with people all over the country, and presumably the globe? I guess what do you think agriculture success looks like if we start looking out 510 2030 years from now, thanks to soil health and opportunity.

 

Russell Taylor  16:21

There’s a lot of hope on the horizon. When I say that is, you know, conservation has become a big issue, particularly because inputs got expensive. When it got expensive, all of a sudden, people started talking about conversation, until our agricultural practices decouple from petroleum based inputs will always be beholden to the industry. And the problem is us the nitrogen industry, for example, nitrogen is made through what they call the haber bosch process, they use some type of either natural gas or in Europe, or maybe some dirty coal in China to capture nitrogen out of the air and make that nitrogen. So that’s when you see a war on these fossil fuels. And you start looking at some of the dirty players where we can impact it, and nitrogen is one of them there, we’ve got to decouple our nitrogen from these processes. So in the future, you know, some businesses will succeed significantly by either figuring out a way to produce that nitrogen without fossil fuels, or conserving the nitrogen we make, maybe that’s the only way we could make this type of nitrogen. But using technology like ours, actually taking that nitrogen and making better utilization of it. So going forward, I think we’re going to focus in on not just precision ag, because Precision Ag you know, in the past, people thought, no machines and computers and strategically plants, placing fertilizer on the soil. The problem is, if that soil health is degraded, it’s not going to hold those nutrients. You know, in some ways, fertilizers are extremely soluble. So one example is – imagine, somebody told you and me that we’re going to have to drink all of our water for the month, in one sitting from a firehose, right now, both painful and inefficient, right? There’s going to be waste and water everywhere, and you and I are going to be unhappy. That’s what we’re doing with some of these crops, we’re given them a big dose of fertilizer at the beginning of the season. And at the end of the season, they’re saying what you ran out. So when we’re mimicking nature, when we’re taking that nitrogen and attaching it to a carbon, like a humic acid, that plant gets a longer look at it. So I can give you a couple examples. We recently did some work in 2018 through 2021, with the University of Tennessee, okay. We do granular fertilizers and then liquid fertilizers. We took a side dress application, that’s where you go on corn later on the season, and you give it another dose of nitrogen in that sideways application we went with and without humic acid. Now the corn that had received extra humic acid produced almost 20 more bushels of corn than the corn that did not. Now this is a lower getting better soil. And that’s the response you would want to see. Okay, how was that corn plant able to produce more corn? And the simple answer is that plant was able to get a longer look at that nutrient for it was last volatilized or converted. That’s how nitrogen is lost it is either it goes in the air as the gas gets rinsed away in your aquifers are it’s mineralized in a way that the plant can get it. So by adding these organic acids back to current fertility programs, we’re able to assist the farmer into making a better use of some of those expensive inputs like nitrogen. And I think looking forward in the future, like you said, where do we see this? This has to occur? Because I can’t see inputs going down. Right? I can’t see the war on fossil fuels and fossil fuel use decreasing. So I think that’s the first step, I think the NRCS and some of those other agencies as far as cultural practices, no till and some of those things, they’re trying to encourage farmers to do it that’s going to continue to occur. But I think getting smart with our nutrients is going to be, particularly nitrogen is going to be some of the pivotal things we’ll see in the next 2030 years.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  20:21

I think, you know, farming has evolved, and it will continue to, especially in other areas of the world, where, you know, the people, sometimes they’re just stuck with the soil that they have. The question becomes is, is there a economies of scale for you, your business and the farmers in far out regions away from where these deposits are, for them to be able to, again, economically, bring in the right amount of additional soil or nutrients that you’re talking about, to that region? And I guess that’s, that’s a question for you. I don’t know.

 

Russell Taylor  20:58

So there is a document out there by the NRCS, that talks about soil health, and how to build soil health and how to build soil organic matter.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  21:06

Yeah, we’ll make that one available in the notes in the show notes here.

 

Russell Taylor  21:10

Sure, sure. So I’ll just summarize, you know, a couple points out that real quickly. It talks about how to change soil organic matter over time. And the ones that you’ve got to remember is, it’s like eating an elephant, you know, you’ve got to do this one bite at a time and slowly, slowly commit to doing it. Because if you start backing up the numbers, let’s say for example, you took an acre of soil, six to eight inches deep, and that’s where most of your corn would root right, and you took that acre soil six, eight inches deep, and you made a big pile, that’s going to make 2 million pounds of soil in that pile. So if we said, let’s change our soil organic matter, 1%, 1% of 2 million is 20,000 pounds of pure organic matter. So you’re going to tell a farmer look, you need to put up 20,000 pounds of stable organic matter. Now stables got the big Asterix next to it because corn stover and manure and all those things have a 10 to one conversion, when it when the soil microbes breaking down takes 10 pounds of active organic matter to make one pound of passive. So that means to get your 20,000 pounds of stable organic matter, you have to put 200,000 pounds of active organic matter. Okay, no farmers putting down 100 tonnes of anything. Exactly. That’s that when we’re talking about taking bites us at a time, you’ve got to commit to it now, what’s the upside and the benefits and if you read that document, we’ll see you know what percent change organic matter will conserve 27 to 30,000 more gallons of water per acre. All of a sudden, that makes a difference, you could fill a few swimming pools with that amount of water. If let’s say you’re dryland wheat, or dryland corn, you’re conserving 30,000 more gallons of water per acre, that’s a big deal. You know, it’s not acres and acres feet of water, but it’s enough water to maybe make a difference on a yield. So that over time plus the nutrient retention is real big reasons why you should increase soil organic matter. And that down the road is going to turn into profits. If you’re retaining nitrogen, it’s because you’re retaining the water, it’s got that water there nitrogen in it and keep preventing it from leaching away.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  23:12

So you’re you’re really if I had to put an analogy around it, you’re saying that your efforts and these efforts in general, whether it’s through you, your company, or your association, it’s more of a dial than a switch, you really have to commit to this over time, and see is to see the results.

 

Russell Taylor  23:32

Right now there is one little nuance in there and it these raw materials, like I’ve talked about behind me in bulk, or use the soil amendments. In some of the extracts, we make these products act like a biostimulant, where we see some accelerated plant growth with these solubilized some of the components, so people will actually add those extracts to the fertilizer, I call it a dealer cocktail, but they’re adding them and what we see is kind of a one plus one equals three, where the added benefit of the humic acid caused that plant to take those nutrients in quicker and allow that plant to achieve a higher genetic potential or better yield.

 

 

 

Jeff Eizenberg  24:15

Well, this has been super interesting Russell, I, you know, don’t spend much of my days thinking too much about the organic matter and soil. But today’s has been one of those days and I actually really enjoyed this opportunity to speak with you. Are there anything else that you know, that we’ve missed here that you want to make make the audience aware of before we kind of wrap up?

 

Russell Taylor  24:40

Well, you know, I try to fly the banner for the industry as much as I can about promoting as the president of the trade association. I tried to be selfless and say hey, you know that I’m trying to help everybody out. But you know, we’re a small family business. We’d like to make sure we’re promoting our name out there. And it’s small companies like myself that are there selling these products. You’re not seeing large agricultural conglomerates really getting behind this yet. And that’s primarily through what’s going on with some changes in laws, how they treat these products. And it’s a long topic, but I’ll just cover it real briefly is the way our government acts, they have got a law for pesticides. And then then the states are in charge of regulating the fertilizers. So there’s this gap in the middle where soil amendments like ours, they’re not a pesticide, they’re not a fertilizer. And so there’s just a gray area. And so there’s not been a lot of laws, rules and testing methods that have been real favorable for our industry. And that’s all in the process of changing now. So you’re going to see updated seals of approval through trade association that show, you know, this, this testing method is approved for products like ours. And consumers should just ask more about how these products are tested and get informed. And the other thing is, there’s a lot of confusion between black products. And I’ll give you one quick example from our chart. Now, biochar, it has an application. And it is nowhere near humic substances. Biochar, somebody’s burnt trash that they didn’t they want to hold in a landfill, it’s a burden on the farm. They’re trying to sell to the soil and it’s beneficial in soils that have low pH, and they’re well drained. Okay, that’s the only the only place where biochar has been shown to be beneficial in soils that have higher pH and because biochar has the lambing potential, and it also has its germinated germination inhibition. Now, those two things, you know, might be too technical agronomy, but basically, you’re putting a product down, that keeps the seed from germinating. So if you just put a crop in the ground, he put something down, it inhibits germination, that’s going to be bad. So you look at it a little bit deeper, I would encourage anybody listening to this, you know, look at the industry, look at what they’re trying to do, and learn a little bit more the difference in these products because humic substances definitely differ between biochar just because it has carbon. They’re not all the same. So let’s talk about the how this carbon is bonded and how it’s useful.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  27:26

Well, we’ve got your video on video now. So you know, when we see you on the steps of the USDA, with with a with a picketing sign telling them to pay more attention to your products, we’ll, we’ll be sure to, you know, tie that back to you.

 

Russell Taylor  27:39

Thank you. Yeah. You may see us on the Rose Bowl, we been on the Rose Bowl Stadium since 2006.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  27:46

okay, well, now that we’re talking, I’d like to go to the next game. The one that coming up here that would if you got extra tickets, I’ll be there.

 

Russell Taylor  27:52

Yeah, we’ll talk offline. I’ll hook you up.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  27:53

All right, I like that. Last question for you ask all my guests. It’s kind of a fun thing. Off topic. Since we’re talking football and sports, in your background, or in your I guess your in your favorable, previous 21 year old body? What extreme sport would you be most inclined to do try or be involved in

 

Russell Taylor  28:18

Extreme sport that I would want to be involved in? Rock climbing, you know, in my area people do a lot of bouldering. And I see the kids out there like lizards on a rock. And I think, you know, if I was younger and didn’t feel like falling off a giant rock that might be interesting to me.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  28:37

Well, seems like you’ve probably got a lot of them there around you so that maybe maybe this will inspire you to get back out there. All right, Russell, this has been great. What is the best way to get in touch with you if people have questions or want to reach out,

 

Russell Taylor  28:50

You’re always welcome to reach out through the website, livearth.com.You can also call us, we’re a small family business. I’m a certified crop advisor. I like picking up the phone talking to people. And we’re always available by phone. And that’s 800-846-2817.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  29:10

Excellent. Well, this has been a real pleasure to appreciate your time and interest here. And, you know, I was kind of risk management approach. You know, we obviously try to help as many people just stay informed with, you know, all that’s happening in agriculture. And this is obviously not anything brand new, but it is on the forefront. So appreciate the time, and maybe we’ll get a chance to hook back up again. And, you know, maybe you’re you tell us you found, you know, the Tyrannosaurus Rex skeleton in that mine or something like that.

 

Russell Taylor  29:43

Yeah, we won’t tell anybody about that. We don’t want to turn that mine into an archeological dig.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  29:48

Yeah, right. Yeah. Good idea. All right, Russell. Well, thanks for your time. I really appreciate it and we’ll be talking to you soon. Have a great holiday.

 

 

Russell Taylor  29:56

Thank you for the interview.

 

 

This transcript was compiled automatically via Otter.AI and as such may include typos and errors the artificial intelligence did not pick up correctly.

 

 

 

08 Dec 2022

AG MARKET UPDATE: NOVEMBER 18 – DECEMBER 7

December has not been good to corn as we started the month with a slide lower into the $6.40s. There has not been any major news change with a good start for corn in Brazil, China lockdowns, and the war in Ukraine continuing to hold the headlines. While weekly exports have been good but uninspiring, the weakness in the USD should help US ag exports be competitive in the coming months before the South American harvest. The humanitarian corridor has continued to work as ships leave Ukraine, but as always this is something to keep an eye on for any bad developments. Russia is expected to resume ammonia exports soon, which would help keep input costs for 2023 from getting much higher.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have seen a nice improvement with their slow march higher from the beginning of October. The EPA came out with lower-than-expected biofuel mandates sending soybean and other world veg oil prices lower while meal has taken off higher. Soybeans hit their highest price since mid-September this week with buyers coming back in the market with a weakening USD. South Americas start has been good enough to where the market expects them to produce another record crop but there is still a long way to go. Right now, there does not appear to be much higher of an upside than the low $15 range in the near term, but if South America has weather problems, that could be the catalyst to move higher or if weather remains good the next move lower.

Via Barchart

Crude Oil

Crude has had an interesting second half of the year following its peak in June. While it has traded between $80-90/barrel most of that time, this recent dip below $75 shows there is a lot of uncertainty as we head into winter. The sanctions on Russian oil by capping it at $60 goes into effect this week while many investors do not expect to see it having a major impact immediately. With Russian oil already trading below the $60 and their breakeven closer to $40 it does not appear this will dampen exports for them with India and China continuing to buy. Europe is still struggling with energy as the war in Ukraine continues. Further guidance from the UN or another shock to the market (China loosening Covid restrictions) could send Crude back higher to its recent trading range.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets had a great November rallying over 10% but have gotten off to a sluggish start in December. While data comes in still pointing to a strong economy and job numbers the ball is in the Fed’s court on what to do with rates. It is expected that there will continue to be rate hikes into 2023 with the Fed potentially keeping rates higher for longer than originally anticipated but slowing the rate at which they raise them. Some of the largest companies in the world have either laid off workers or frozen hiring as many questions remain for next year.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

Podcast

The Hedged Edge is back online with a guest who could be this podcast’s most important guest of all time. At a time when inflation is running rampant through the world economy, drought conditions are drying up our rivers, and the global supply of grain is scarce. We are tasked with the question, “what the hell is going on in logistics, and is there any relief in sight?”

To help address these questions and more, I am joined today by a man that needs no introduction to most in the physical commodity sector – Woodson Dunavant with the Dunavant Logistics company based in Memphis, TN.

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

16 Nov 2022

What the hell is going on in logistics and is there any relief in sight? with Woodson Dunavant

The Hedged Edge is back online with a guest who could be this podcast’s most important guest of all time. At a time when inflation is running rampant through the world economy, drought conditions are drying up our rivers, and the global supply of grain is scarce. We are tasked with the question, “what the hell is going on in logistics, and is there any relief in sight?”
To help address these questions and more, I am joined today by a man that needs no introduction to most in the physical commodity sector – Woodson Dunavant with the Dunavant Logistics company based in Memphis, TN.
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Quick Links from the episode:
For more information visit Dunavant.com, follow @Dunavant_LTL on Twitter, and check out their LinkedIn & Facebook.
Questions for Woodson? Contact him at: [email protected]
And last but not least, don’t forget to subscribe to The Hedged Edge on your preferred platform, and follow us on Twitter @ag_rcm, LinkedIn, and Facebook.
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Check out the complete Transcript from this week’s podcast below:

What the hell is going on in logistics and is there any relief in sight? with Woodson Dunavant

Jeff Eizenberg  00:14

Welcome to the Hedged Edge by RCM Ag Services where we’re getting out the field and onto the mic to bring you weekly market updates, commentary from commodity experts in monthly interviews with the biggest names in agribusiness. Welcome to winner at least it feels that way after the one of the warmest falls in recent memory. Today, the hedged edge is back online with a guest who could potentially be the most important guest of all time on this podcast. At a time when inflation is running rampant through the world economy, drought conditions are drying up our rivers and global supply of grain is scarce, are tasked with the question, What the hell is going on in logistics? And is there any relief in sight? To help address these questions and more I’m joined today by a man who needs no introduction to most in the physical commodity sector once and done event with the done event logistics company based in Memphis, Tennessee, what’s in is the Senior Vice President of agriculture and Global Network Development for the company. And as part of the fourth generation of done event family to work for the company. He worked across the globe specializing in cotton trading from 2001 to 2009. And spent four years in equipment leasing, what’s in currently serves as logistics sales and business development for event focusing on the international market. He’s a member of the executive board of directors for Donovan Enterprises, Inc, and is on the board of directors of the Memphis Cotton Exchange and the Memphis cotton Museum. He received a bachelor’s degree in finance from Auburn University. Go War Eagle. What Dr. Woodson, welcome to the show.

 

Woodson Dunavant  01:59

Thank you. Thank you. Thanks for having me, Josh. I appreciate it. Glad to be here.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  02:02

Yeah, it’s good times. I mean, my first question your Memphis with the river being as crazy as it is really concerned for the catalyst industry and the restaurant industry. You know, I’ve I’ve had lunch at Blue City cafe over there on Beale Street. The guy told me he’s, he’s, you know, cooking up 180 fish a day. What? How’s he doing in all this? Oh,

 

Woodson Dunavant  02:26

to be completely frank, he’s doing just fine. Because all his cat fish are not coming out of the river. They’re coming out of the cat fish farms. They’re all in the delta. So he’s gonna be okay. He’s gonna be quite alright.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  02:36

He’s alright. Okay, well, I thought maybe they were you know, he’s grabbing them off the bottom fish at the Mississippi or something?

 

Woodson Dunavant  02:42

No, but they are finding each day that goes by you get somebody on the news saying that they found a civil war piece of memorabilia or something, you know that the river hasn’t been this low. And however many years and you know, you’ve got all these treasure hunters that are down there looking for some and things of that nature. But, you know, the real crux of it is what is it doing to the to the grain shippers right now. And it’s a mess. In some cases, you know, the river, where we used to be able to do two barges pass on one another. Now, in some cases, it’s just one line traffic. And then throw on top of that, typically, some of these barges will be able to go to three, you know, far out, and now they’re only able to go you know, back to back, if that makes sense, to lane single. And then add in that to the fact of the river being as low as it is, then they can’t carry the payload that they would be in years past as well. So you push all that back to the farmers pocket. And you know, his supply chain costs have really, really gone up a B, he can’t move the volume that he’s used to moving. So what is he doing? In some cases, you know, they’re just going to sit and put their put their product in their in their bed or their silo, until until things get better, which, you know, there’s there. I don’t know when that’s going to happen. You looked at Long long term forecast, things of that nature, you know, a couple couple inch rain in the Midwest, it isn’t going to move the river level up by 10 feet. So you know, we’ll just have to wait and see how that how that goes.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  04:26

It’s kind of a wild ride right now. And yet, the pictures and the images are stunning people sending drones to give you pictures. I do sense. I don’t want to get too into this before we get a little bit more background. But I do have a question and maybe we’ll tackle it a little bit later about about those drunk drunk foot photos. I feel like a little more a little. Maybe not exactly the river. They’re like the tributary so kind of make it sound a little worse than it is. Yeah, so what you just described is pretty pretty dire. Um, Before we get too far into into the state of things, Watson, I think it might be best if you could just to share your background of the company. And you know why we’re even talking with you about logistics. I mean, you guys have had an extensive knowledge of logistics systems, both rail, barge, freight, etc. So if you could maybe just share a little bit of that background, and then we can jump into these problems. And hopefully, you’re not going to solve the world’s issues by the end of this call.

 

Woodson Dunavant  05:32

No, there’s no question that that’s gonna happen for sure. We might need a beer, a glass of wine to really get to the bottom of it. So yeah, so don event is a family company that started in cotton trading with my grandfather, back in the 30s. In the 40s. My father took it over, took over the business in the 50s, when his dad passed away when he was in his late 20s. So he was sort of thrown into the fire. Early on, he was down on on Front Street, where we were all the cotton traders were at that time buying cotton from the Delta and and shipping it to the US textile mills, you know, the manufacturers who were ever on the East Coast, and even in the northeast,

 

Jeff Eizenberg  06:18

they no longer exist, right? Yeah. So,

 

Woodson Dunavant  06:21

you know, we used to consume between, you know, call it 10 and 15 million bales a year domestically, and right now, we’re just north of two. And, you know, we’ll talk about this later. But, you know, manufacturing coming back and things of that nature, you know, is that, you know, is that gonna go back to 10? million? No, is it gonna go to five? I doubt it. But who knows? You know, we’ll, again, we’ll hit on Mexico and other things like that later. But yeah, I mean, it is the US textile industry is very, very small. So. So what does that mean? So, as we transitioned into that, it mean, it meant that there was a blow up in the international world for textile manufacturing, primarily in in Asia, Southeast Asia, subcontinent, so on and so forth. So as as manufacturing, went overseas, my father went overseas as well, to be able to sell, sell cotton. So we were buying cotton, you know, from the 80s and 90s, early 2000s. Were buying cotton anywhere in the world, that cotton is being grown, and then we’re selling it to the manufacturers. So

 

Jeff Eizenberg  07:35

you’re buying from Australia, India, all over the world,

 

Woodson Dunavant  07:38

anywhere there was yeah, it was Becca, Stan, Brazil, Australia. Tragic. I mean, you name it, wherever it was being, wherever it’s being grown, we were there, buying it, and then selling it to the manufacturers. So in the mid 70s, my dad made the first sale of cotton to China, which was a huge development. I think that was in 72. And then Sunday eight, we made the largest sale of a million bales to the Chinese government. So that was really a big thing for both our company as well as us. cotton industry. And now today, cotton is, excuse me, China is still the largest consumer of us cotton in the world. They have a large crop themselves, but they they have a major surplus of need of imported cotton.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  08:32

So thank you, Nike and Adidas and everybody else, right?

 

Woodson Dunavant  08:37

Yeah, yeah, exactly. All clothing, upholstery. But you know, even stuff that you wouldn’t think of what cotton goes into is manufactured over there. And a lot of times brought back over here as well.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  08:52

So with all those purchases, and sales, then comes the logistics portion. Correct?

 

Woodson Dunavant  08:57

That’s right. That’s exactly right. So it’s still cheaper for the retailers kind of looking from field to fabric here from for us to ship a bale from St. Mississippi, to Shanghai, and then bring that bring that shirt back here to Memphis, it’s still cheaper to do that than it would be to do it here in the US, which is really, I mean, you can’t blows your mind. Really, the that’s the way it is. But that’s the way it is. So

 

Jeff Eizenberg  09:25

I got to ask a question about that. So it’s so interesting to me, the way you describe it like that, is it you’re gonna get the bail here, you ship it over, and it comes back. And then is it just because you have this, your network of the supply chain there is so strong that you’re able to from a net con economies of scale, have enough flow that you have enough movement between the vessels that you’re able to then you know, take it over. You don’t have to sit on a container for, you know, six weeks for it to manufac Asher, and come back. But you have enough flow where there’s always a container ready to come back the other way?

 

Woodson Dunavant  10:06

Yeah, I mean, that’s Jeff, that’s really deep. And I really wish I could tell you that, yes, we were involved from the field in the US all the way to the manufacturer. And then back here in the US. There’s so many different segments of that Donovan is not involved in that entire supply chain. Well, that would be really cool. If we were Yeah, it’s just there’s so many different pieces to make that puzzle all come together.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  10:31

We don’t need to get too in the weeds. But I’m curious if you were involved

 

Woodson Dunavant  10:35

with with our customers with helping them move it from the field to the oversee port, and then we sort of lose track of it there. And then on our on our import side, you know, we’re responsible from once the goods hit the port in Asia, to deliver them here to the United States and the distribution facility got because there is there is a dark area, there are a gray area that we’re not involved at all,

 

Jeff Eizenberg  10:58

leave that to somebody on on their side that can speak a language and manage that process got

 

Woodson Dunavant  11:03

Correct, correct. That’s right. That’s right. So so we did all the all the cotton trading, you know, the mid 2000s, come along, you know, 2007 2008, I’m sure some of your your, your readers will remember those days now crazy thing for when the spec and hedge funds got really involved in commodities that they thought they needed to commodity bucket in addition to their bond bucket and their equity bucket. And that really changed things from us where we’re trying to keep a hedged book with against our long physicals, the market would run up, we’d have short futures against our physicals. And then, you know, in order to hold those positions, we’re having to send money margin to keep those positions. And it just got, it just got too much for my dad and our family, whereby, you know, our net worth was on the line. And it just, it became really uncomfortable from a family standpoint, from a from a financial standpoint, everything and so he, you know, had the foresight to look at possibly marketing our cotton division. To sell it, we had multiple suitors. At the end of the day, Louis Dreyfus Corporation was the one that came in and bought all of our cotton trading people and divisions around the world. So we had things that they did not have in Central Africa, in Brazil, and Australia. And so it really helped them put together, you know, the full global portfolio footprint that they needed to go to the next level. So

 

Jeff Eizenberg  12:42

it’s no surprise today, they are the largest of, you know, knowledge. They’re right there. Yeah,

 

Woodson Dunavant  12:48

that’s correct. And we were in Donovan Donovan was right there with him, we were doing between four and 6 million bales a year globally, you know, between one and $2 billion of revenue, we were spending, you know, upwards of $250 million a year in logistics. And so that’s when the whole logistics thing for us sort of sort of tipped itself off. And when we were when we made that sale to them, you know, they they did not want any of our people that were doing the logistics. So we, we kept those people and we’ve built this this Threepio, which we will go into more detail about.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  13:25

That’s great. So then how many people that are on the team today, across the globe? As I know, you have global operations?

 

Woodson Dunavant  13:32

Yeah, it’s really hard to say, to put a number a finger on an exact amount of people, we’ve got a lot of contractors, we’ve got agents, we’ve you know, so it’s a real hard number to put, I mean, it’s north of 200. But it could balloon up to if you include contractors and agents and all that. I mean, it’s a really big number.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  13:57

Sure, not to mention all the people that are involved in you know, running the rail or you know, trucking etc, you get to put everyone together in the 1000s. So it makes makes good sense. Okay, well, that’s a that’s one heck of a ride for you. You’re in the family and obviously, to get to where you guys are here today. Now, it would have been seen that natural that you’re also still heavily involved in cotton.

 

Woodson Dunavant  14:27

We are we, we do so we do freight forwarding for a lot of our old cotton competition. We do a lot of a trucking and logistics for them. The whole bucket of Donovan logistics, it’s probably 10 or 15% of what we do. So it’s not it’s not it’s not as big as I would like it. But it’s still it’s a core. It’s a core business for us. And, you know, we do everything like I just said from documentation to try Looking to ocean freight in some cases. So yeah, cotton is in our blood and we can’t get it out of our blood, nor do we really want to so the side that we’re in now, we don’t have any risk for, for cotton and being able to be in the business without risk is a good thing.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  15:17

Yeah, I agree with that, you know, that’s, we’re all in that business. And it’s, it can be heart palpitating. So, okay. 15% is cotton, what other products are involved in agriculture, or if if it can be shipped your yours,

 

Woodson Dunavant  15:35

if it’s if it can be moved in a container, Jeff, where we’re going to be involved in it. So, you know, we’ve done everything from Peanuts, to soybeans, to corn to Rice, tobacco, alfalfa, you know, just anything agriculture, you know, we’d like to, for someone to come to us with a challenge of, you know, we’re only able to get 20 tonnes in a container, well, let’s bring it to a major city or a big place where there’s heavy weight, translate it, and we’ll get 25 times in the container. So for every five moves, you’re getting a free container. So every four, so yeah, that those are the types of things we like to look at with with our customers is how can we do things different? How can we maximize our plate payload? How, you know, how can we how can we be a solution to something that they need help with and that that’s how we grow our businesses is people come to us with problems and we help solve.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  16:32

Yeah, well, listen, that’s, that’s, that’s a great service. And obviously, you’ve been able to continue to grow. So you’re, you’re based in Memphis, would that also then insinuate that a majority of the operations and movements starts and ends there on the river? Or are you also focused on the ports and the International terminals as well?

 

Woodson Dunavant  16:56

Yep. So Memphis is home. Obviously, Memphis is where our headquarters is. Memphis is, is near and dear to our heart. And Memphis is great. We love Memphis, we see the growth. We’re very bullish on Memphis. As you know, we’ve got all five major railroads here, which only Chicago has that going through them. We’ve got the largest freight airport, with FedEx moving through here. We’ve got our 40 corridor, trucks moving, you know, east to west connecting the east to west coast. 50 fives connecting Mexico with Canada. So we’ve got, you know, road rail runway. You know, it’s all here. And so we’re, we’re very bullish on that. But to your question, no, Donald’s moving product in and out of every major rail hub in the United States, as well as port, we concentrate in the southeast, and then the Gulf, Houston and Dallas, Memphis, Savannah, Charleston, Norfolk, Baltimore, Wilmington, and then an inland we’re, we’re Nashville, and Memphis in Atlanta. And as I said, Dallas, so we’re really focused in the southeast, and then the Gulf. But we’re also moving product in and out of the P and W, in the northeast, as well. And in southern Florida. So there’s no real you know, we’re, we’re spread all across. So we’re lucky in that regard.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  18:29

That’s great. I guess it really kind of circles back to, like I said, at the beginning, you’re one of the most important people in the world to be talking to you right now. If you’re, you know, you’re so spread out that you are touching so many different pieces of the overall logistics. gameplan, or footprint, let’s call it that. And we all have been hearing about all the problems that are out there. And I guess, before we just say today, this is the problem today. It seems as if this the backups and the issues and the increasing costs and everything kicked off with COVID with the COVID pandemic, and then it’s just really never cleared the system. And then now we have new problems, right, we’ve got drought and other conditions. Was it was this is it fair to say that that was really that was the kickoff the Genesis? And is is that portion of it? Or is it portion of that portion worked itself through and we’re now facing other problems? Where are we at?

 

Woodson Dunavant  19:31

Yeah, I mean, COVID changed the supply chain. Things are not going to go back to the way they were pre COVID. Right? Post COVID COVID, whatever. I mean, it’s not going back to the way it was right. That’s crystal clear. The question is, what is it going to do in the future because it’s going to change again. You know, rates went through the roof. Now they’re crashing back down, both from mostly frame rates, breakpoint rates, yes,

 

Jeff Eizenberg  19:58

interest rates are going straight up. Yeah, interest rates going up

 

Woodson Dunavant  20:01

freight rates going down. I mean, we’re, we’re in a freight recession right now, you know, importers have, you know, they couldn’t get their hands on enough inventory. Well, now they’ve got too much inventory, and they can’t move it. The consumer is not buying as much as he was, you know, they all got scared last year, a lot of the retailers and they couldn’t get their product in for Christmas time. So they brought it in super early this year. And so you know, they are chock a block full these warehouses. I mean, I was reading this morning, Jeff, historically, historically, warehouse levels are about call it 10%. In terms of in terms of vacancy rate, and okay, right now, you’re at, like, want to say, like, around 3%. And it’s literally around 10% For the last decade, and so at 3% Now, it’s a good time to be in the warehouse business. Now. It’s done like, yeah, yeah. So you know, all that’s going to change, you know, everybody’s gonna go out and get their warehouse space, and then then demand is gonna go up, you know, and then things will change. But as it stands right now, being in the warehouse business is a very good business to be in.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  21:18

Yeah. And then you mentioned, when we talked to a couple of weeks ago, something that kind of speaks to that you said Amazon did their, their Black Friday, Black Friday, a week, thoroughly, which forced even more warehousing to be space to be taken up?

 

Woodson Dunavant  21:36

That’s right. That’s right. So and it’s not just Amazon. I mean, it’s all these retail guys, they’re all in the same boat together. So, you know, with with, you know, interest rates dealing with they’re doing geopolitical unrest, unrest and Ukraine, and in that area, diesel costs through the roof has really got me concerned, both in North Europe and in here in the, in the United States. I mean, there’s just a lot of uncertainty right now. And, you know, we’re just gonna continue to service our customers and do what we know to do, and just sit back and watch, you know, some of those other things that are outside of our control, but at the end of the day, affect me, my business, your business, my pocketbook, your pocketbook. So, you know, a lot going on right now. And obviously, the China and Taiwan deal. I mean, it, there’s a lot to be keeping around right now.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  22:34

Right. And there was a period in time when, you know, we saw the pictures on the news of, you know, 500 or 1000 boats back at the LA port. And, you know, a lot of that issue cleared the port issues

 

Woodson Dunavant  22:50

that cleared up, or I wouldn’t say it’s, I wouldn’t say it’s cleared. But it is, it is working itself out. The issue now is in Savannah, I think they’ve got 20 or 30 vessels awaiting birth there. So you know, once everybody saw everything in LA, they were like, alright, let’s switch everything to the East Coast, into the Gulf. And so you’re having some residual stuff there on the east coast, but you know, it that’ll work itself out, especially with demand dropping right now, I mean, a lot of our import clients have, you know, where they were doing, call it 30 to 50 containers a week of product, you know, they’re less than 10 an hour. And that’s, that’s material, you know, that that’s a massive drop in volume, the ocean carriers are pulling, pulling service out of the market to try to stabilize rates. So where they had four vessels that were on a string from Shanghai to LA, well, maybe they’re only doing two now. So you know, that that’s what they do in order to get their rates back up as they pull capacity on the market.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  23:58

But sounds like the airline industry, I think I paid like $800 to fly to Dallas a couple weeks ago, like really good. Two years ago, you were giving me a flight for $120.

 

Woodson Dunavant  24:11

We looked at going out west for spring break. And I can’t even tell you what it’s going to cost to fly a family of five from Memphis to Utah. I mean,

 

Jeff Eizenberg  24:22

we’re doing it we’re going to Park City and thankfully, I have a friend who has a place to stay but man, aside from that, I’m not

 

Woodson Dunavant  24:32

Yeah, it’s, it’s, it’s crazy. So so that’s what the that’s what the ocean liners do, as well to take capacity out of the market in order to stabilize rates. So, you know, they’ve done quite the ocean carrier community has done quite quite well in the last couple of years. So we shall see. You know, we should see how they prevail going forward, but I would think they’re going to be okay.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  24:59

Okay. circling back to commodity markets here. And I’m curious to the back to the river, I guessing that believe something like 60% of all US exports run through the Mississippi, and you were describing this one lane traffic versus multi lane. You know, as I start to think about what this is going to mean, have you seen a shift where people are, your customers are starting to, you know, hire rail and truck and, you know, incur those additional costs that are associated with having to move off the river? Or are you or our or our people, like you said, farmers just stuffing their bins full and the rest of world has to wait?

 

Woodson Dunavant  25:44

Yeah, I think that’s what you’re gonna see. I mean, you look with demand slowing down. That’s a good thing right now, what you would never say the demand is a good demand slowing down is a good thing from a farmer’s perspective. But to answer your question, I mean, we’re not seeing the grains go from, from a barge to, to the road, for example, me, you’re not, you’re not seeing, because at the end of the day, most of those sales are our bulk sales. So the product has got to move in bulk, you know, and it’s not going to be able, you’re not going to be able to move it to Memphis, and then, you know, I guess you could bulk rail it and translate it at a port. But if you’re not already doing that, in order to set something like that up, I mean, your costs are gonna go through the roof. And so yeah, I think it’s just kind of a sit back and wait, right now do what they can and try to fulfill the contracts if they can, and just just do their best. I mean, look, what the dollar is strong as it is, you know, that’s hurting them as well. So, you know, the farmers are going to be okay. But, you know, they’re just gonna go through a rough patch. And unfortunately, right now, from a timing standpoint, you know, all the crops are coming off right now. And so, you know, they want to get them on the move and get get them out and get ready for new crops. But that doesn’t look like that’s going to be the case next year.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  27:03

Well, you know, people can wait for close, they can’t really wait for food. So at some point, the basis is going to have to shoot straight up or, you know, they’re gonna have to figure out other solutions to get moving unless, of course, we you get some of the rain. And I guess, you know, you’ve been doing this long enough. 2012 was another drought year, and because we’re reading that the river was, you know, significantly low at that point. What was your experience in that timeframe? And how long did it take before you started seeing things kind of working more normal? Again? Not March or April or May that this? Yeah. potentially even subsides? Yeah. It?

 

Woodson Dunavant  27:44

I mean, it just depends on on on weather. Really? But yeah, I think spring is what you’re looking at. Once you get the snow melt off from the Midwest. That’s what typically always give the river its strength in its in its last as is that Snowmelt Runoff from north to here. And then that obviously takes it all the way down to New Orleans. So yeah, I think it’ll be spring, at the earliest. So, you know, hopefully, we can get, you know, enough enough rain and wet weather around here to be able to come back up a little bit, but it’s not going to be able to go back up to where it needs to be until until the spring.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  28:30

Let’s shift over here a little bit. You’ve mentioned the work and expansion of the company over the years. And, you know, I read an article that you guys posted, maybe earlier this year, on the growth in Mexico, do you just maybe talk to us a little bit about what you’re seeing there? Is it? Is it what’s what problem are you solving by expanding into Mexico?

 

Woodson Dunavant  28:55

Well, we’re, what problem we solve. And so we’re helping solve our customers problems. That’s what we do. And, you know, we saw an opportunity, with things in Asia slowing down of people and things moving, you know, not reshoring to America, but nearshoring to America. And you know that that’s where Mexico comes in. I mean, I’ve talked to multiple people, you know, over the past few months and even years, you know, maybe the quality of the product produced in Mexico doesn’t meet what it is in China, but they are somewhat competitive from a labor standpoint. So if we can get that quality then then I think you would see a massive, massive move to manufacturing in Mexico. So we saw an opportunity we’re it done event has operations at every border crossing from Laredo all the way to Tijuana, and everywhere in between. So we’re moving product both in and out via truck and rail. We have cross docking, we have warehousing. So you We’ve got a gentleman that runs that operation for us who use, I still need to introduce you to and your team, because I think y’all would be benefit to hear from him and what his capabilities are and how, you know, he can help you and some of your customers out with what he’s doing even enter Mexico, not not to mention the border. So we’re very bullish on Mexico, and the US and where that partnership is going to go from here. And so we are

 

Jeff Eizenberg  30:28

going both ways, right? You’ve got grains and other goods going into Mexico. And then as you’ve just described a little bit ago, how if there’s a chance for us to match the labor and quality, then if we move some of our texts will like, not us. But if some I’ve heard that China is buying up some textile factories and whatnot in Mexico, if they could replicate the work there, but just be closer to us that, then now you’re going the other way, right? You’re bringing it back in?

 

Woodson Dunavant  30:58

That’s exactly right. That’s exactly right. And, you know, it’s just it’s been a great venture for us. You know, the more and more we look at it, the more and more we like it, and the more bullish we are on it. So yeah, I’m very, very happy with where we’re going there, for sure.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  31:14

I was talking with a group today, and he was talking to me about Mexican ports, and how the terminals are hardly back over there, and only the largest vessels coming in. Is that been your experience as well, that these port contractors are very long and extensive? And just to break into that it would be difficult? And ultimately, I guess that would mean that there’s better chance for some of this rail and solutions? Yeah,

 

Woodson Dunavant  31:42

I mean, you know, I think in Mexico is a lot of people know, I mean, you’ve got to know the right people in order to get things done. And, you know, while while there might be longer contracts in place, I think that, you know, you can still get things done if you know, the right people there. Right. So, you know, I think that’s what the name of the game is there for sure.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  32:04

Is there other any other countries or regions that you’re focusing on other other than, than the Mexico opportunity? And obviously, you’re doing things in Asia? But yeah, I mean, you coming on? You

 

Woodson Dunavant  32:18

know, we’re, we’re pretty bullish on Vietnam, we’ve got a contingent going over there, I think in the next three weeks or so to go check things out, you know, they suffered from a lack of land and people, but, you know, they, everything that they’ve done is is very impressive. From a port infrastructure standpoint, from a manufacturing standpoint, from a labor standpoint. I mean, you’ve got invest foreign investment from all over the world going into Vietnam right now. And, you know, we’re, we’re quite bullish on on the goings on there, and so much, so I was, like I said, we’re sending sending three executives over there in the next few weeks to go to go investigate further and for sure, do you?

 

Jeff Eizenberg  33:05

Are you taking a translator? And are you on this? Are you on this contingent?

 

Woodson Dunavant  33:11

So luckily, we, you know, we don’t really need translators, we have agents and people that we work with, over there that are able to do that for us. So years and years and years ago, when we travel over there, you’d have to, you know, you’d have to have a translator, whether it was in China or Vietnam, or wherever, in Asia, you’re going nowadays, you know, with with as many agents in the network that we have, we’re able to go over there and get around and you know, to be completely honest, English will get you a lot further than you think, especially in Asia. It really will

 

Jeff Eizenberg  33:45

you heading on this trip, or you’re,

 

Woodson Dunavant  33:47

I’m not unfortunately, I wish I would I wish I was Vietnam was one of my top countries in the world that I’ve ever visited, both from a food standpoint, from a people standpoint, from a manufacturing. I love love Vietnam is awesome. Vietnam, Thailand and South Africa are the top three for me, for sure.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  34:10

Sounds good. So you know, this has been a it’s been a great conversation, what’s in it for you know, my takeaway from what you’re saying here is that we all need to think differently in the new environment moving forward, that it’s going to take strategic partnerships, it’s going to take innovation from different companies like yourselves, to come up with better solutions to move products and goods. And achieve really at the end of the day. Our goal of our company and the people with our clients we work with is to help them maximize their margins. And so it sounds like you’re very much aligned with that perspective.

 

Woodson Dunavant  34:48

Absolutely. Absolutely. If you get if you get if you’re comfortable in your supply chain right now, watch out because there’s a change coming and you know it like I said, we’re here to provide solutions when customers have problems, or they want to look outside the box, that’s, that’s who we are. And that’s what we want to help them do. And, you know, it’s a new normal that we’re in, you know, it may only last another three to six months, and then we could be hair on fire was something else. I mean, who knows? That will happen? Because, you know, I wish I could tell you that, you know, things will go back to the way they were. But as we all know, once you have a catastrophic, cataclysmic shift in supply chain, which we have had pre COVID to COVID to now. It’s a new way of doing business. And yeah, so it’s, it’s fascinating. The one thing that we didn’t touch on, was, I think you want to real quick on the rail issue.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  35:46

Oh, yeah, please. Yeah. What’s the story? Are they is it Congress is the only one that could solve this or what’s going on?

 

Woodson Dunavant  35:52

So they did they have originally they had said the 19th of November, they just extended it to December 4. And so they’re gonna have another couple three weeks negotiation, which I view is a very positive development. At the end of the day, Congress and or president are gonna have to step in, because if you were to have that happen, I mean, you talk about you think that the LA Long Beach strike was a big deal. You talked about stoking inflation. I mean, it would be tattered. Strophic, if we had a major rail, strike, I mean, you know, 40%, of, of all goods, in terms of weight is moving on the rail. And if you if you were to stop that, I mean, you can’t get from a food from a retail from you. I mean, you just goes on down the list. I mean, it would be I can’t imagine that the government would allow that to happen, though, they will step down at the 11th hour, if it gets to that point and put their foot down, they have to,

 

Jeff Eizenberg  36:57

yeah, I mean, everything with the just in time production that we have here and consumption in the United States, if even a day or two delay when we’ve seen with, you know, weather conditions or something backs things up, and it takes months for it to work through. So if you started if you had weeks or months off, oh, my goodness, you’re,

 

Woodson Dunavant  37:19

I mean, to your point, even even five days, like something like that would set us back by, you know, three or four months. I mean, it’d be crazy. So I do not think that that will happen. So you can come back and poke me when they do strike and then everything shifts.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  37:36

Instead, it was not gonna happen. Place your bets. Yeah. We get it. I appreciate that insight. Because then yeah, you’re at the pulse of it. I mean, I assume that the people in the rail industry don’t want it to happen either. But they also want to be paired paid fairly and get proper compensation. So

 

Woodson Dunavant  37:53

that’s right. That’s right. You can’t fault him for sure. Yeah,

 

Jeff Eizenberg  37:56

that’s exactly it. Well, no, this has been extremely good and extremely helpful beneficial to I think everyone listening and, you know, welcome, welcome. You obviously share it yourself. I always have one final fun question for everybody. And it’s what is your favorite extreme sport that you either participate in or would participate in if you maybe were back in your yet 20 year old buddy?

 

Woodson Dunavant  38:20

Oh, Lord and mercy, stream sport?

 

Jeff Eizenberg  38:25

I mean, you talk duck, honey, that’s kind of the kind of counts.

 

Woodson Dunavant  38:28

Okay, well, if that counts, then I will. You know, it’s an extreme sport, in some cases, for sure. Yeah. And I really enjoy it. So. Yeah, I mean, that would be that would be it for me. For sure. I was thinking more like MMA or boxing. Oh, yeah. Well, you could do that too. I mean, I really miss heavyweight boxing. And, you know, back in our day was was was when Tyson and Lewis but even before that, I mean, you know, we would block an entire night out, you know, to get ready for the boxing match. And I mean, it’s it feels like it’s gone. Like, MMA has just totally taken it over. But I mean, I feel like there’s still a space for good heavyweight boxing, and it just, it’s gone. It feels I just, I really miss that.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  39:15

Maybe Tyson was the pioneer of it, because when he bit Holyfield’s ear, nowadays, MMA if you’ve met somebody there, they might be like, yeah, that’s okay.

 

Woodson Dunavant  39:23

That’s right. That’s right. There’s no doubt there’s no doubt so

 

Jeff Eizenberg  39:26

pretty good. Oh, what’s the what’s the best way to get a hold of you have people had to want to want to connect?

 

Woodson Dunavant  39:33

Yeah. So reach out to me. My email address is very simple with some data of it. I’ve done have a.com Email me, you can give me a call. And happy to talk through anything with anybody importers, exporters, domestic domestic folks here in the US anything cross border. If I don’t know the answer, I’ll put you in touch with somebody here. That does. We’ve got we’ve got IT experts all over the place. Donovan, I’d be happy to put you in touch with whomever you need to talk to. So we’re, we’re really excited with our growth and where we’re going. And, you know, we’re just we’re in a we’re in a really good place right now. So, Jeff, I appreciate you doing this. I’ve enjoyed getting to know you over the past few weeks, and hopefully this won’t be the last time I talk to you.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  40:24

Yeah, we’ll do it again. We’ll check back in whenever fills back up. All right.

 

Woodson Dunavant  40:27

Sounds good, Jeff, appreciate it. So much

 

Jeff Eizenberg  40:29

Appreciate the time. Yep. Take care. Thank you.

 

 

This transcript was compiled automatically via Otter.AI and as such may include typos and errors the artificial intelligence did not pick up correctly.

 

21 Oct 2022

AG MARKET UPDATE: OCTOBER 14 – 21

Corn had small losses on the week as harvest continues to roll on. The major ongoing story is the low river levels impacting barge travel along the Mississippi and other major water ways. This is having an impact on basis levels along with exports. Exports for the week were within estimates and ethanol output got back above 1 million barrels for the first time since early August. The exports will be the main factor to keep an eye on in the short term with no immediate relief expected for the Mississippi River with barges backed up and delays on both sides of the supply chain. The drought conditions compared to this time last year can be seen at the bottom, showing how much moisture is needed over the winter.

Via Barchart

Beans made gains this week with China showing back up as buyers but still has a bearish outlook with South America expecting neutral weather. Harvest continues to roll on with 63% done and nothing slowing it down. As always, the US needs to sell their beans before Brazil gets closer to harvest, with a potentially record crop coming from Brazil this year. If China continues to buy and Brazil begins to have weather issues, we could see a rally, but the Mississippi river issues and other bearish problems may have the upper hand currently.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets were positive again this week with mixed earnings and option expiration pushing markets higher. Next week’s earnings will be the most important and set the tone for the rest of the year with Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Exxon, Visa, Facebook, and many more. The guidance these company’s give will show where the largest companies in the world see the economy in the next 3-12 months. While this month’s trade has been encouraging, many investors think is just a pause before we move lower again, next week may give us a better idea. Mortgage rates topped 7% again this week as the housing market continues to face the fallout.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The drought monitor below shows where we stand compared to this time last year.

October 18, 2022 Valid 8 a.m. EDT (Released Thursday, Oct. 20, 2022)

October 19, 2021 Valid 8 a.m. EDT (Released Thursday, Oct. 21, 2021)

Podcast

Are the Fed’s hikes starting to dampen inflation? Oil, grains, and metals have all fallen from their highs. But the rarely spoken of Cotton market was one of the first to crack…falling from 1.58/lb to 0.95/lb in just a few short days. We’re digging into this sharp drop and just why and how Cotton is involved in seemingly everything with RCM’s very own cotton king, LOGIC advisors Ron Lawson.

In this episode, Ron is giving us the low down on how and why he believes it’s not Dr. Copper which acts as the global economic barometer, but how Cotton is the real Canary and leading indicator on global demand. In between those talks, we’re covering all things Cotton including crop insurance, irrigated vs dry land, the scam that was Pima and Egyptian Cotton, the process of cotton – which countries have it, which want it, ginning it, spinning it, dyeing it, global commodity merchant co’s pushing it around, and even micro-plastics, climate change, and how Cotton always flows to the cheapest labor source. Finally, we’re walking in some high Cotton putting Ron in the hot seat. Will we ever get the growth back? Tune in to get these critical hot takes — SEND IT!

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

14 Oct 2022

AG MARKET UPDATE: OCTOBER 7 – 14

The USDA report this week did not make any major changes to the US corn crop estimating a yield of 171.9 bushels per acres, down .6 bu/ac from September. The lack of surprises in the report kept corn trading along its path of late with no major losses or gains. The ending stocks were raised on lower demand with a high USD and world recession fears looming. While the balance sheets remain tight for corn but the recession fears lowering demand eases the balance sheet worries, for now. Harvest is still rolling along with much of the US experiencing drought conditions and no major rains in the forecast for many areas to slow it down much.

Via Barchart

Beans were the surprise of the report with estimated yields falling to 49.8 bu/ac, down 0.7 bu/ac from the September report. US ending stocks were also cut with the yield lowering getting an appropriate reaction higher aster the report. The main concern for beans right now is low demand and the potential of a record Brazil bean crop. The strong USD weighs on bean exports with China being slow buyers, as we have said before to start feeling better about the direction of beans’ price, we need China to show up more often in larger quantities.

Via Barchart

Cotton continued lower this week following the USDA report that saw a bearish reaction despite lower production estimates. Cotton is still fighting the supply vs demand issue to figure out where to go. Right now, the demand, or lack thereof, is winning as prices have been moving lower over the last 2 months. World recession fears impact the demand for cotton with lower demand balancing the lower production. The lack of demand makes it difficult to see a sizeable move higher in the near term but for cotton to be planted in areas that could grow corn and soybeans these price levels will not be attractive. We could potentially see a sideways trade until there is more certainty economically (demand) going forward.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets were positive this week due to a massive rally on Thursday to gain back the week’s losses and some. Inflation came in hot, again, this week giving the Fed the go ahead to raise rates another 75 basis points in November if they want to with a 15% chance of a 100 point raise. The market rallied on the CPI number, despite it being high, showing that there is still room for bounces in a bear market. It is hard to find much good news in the market with the proposed deal between the Biden administration and Rail workers unions falling apart this week as well, bringing the possibility of shutdowns back.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The drought monitor below shows where we stand week to week. As you can see much of the country is in drought conditions and will need moisture over the winter.

Podcast

Are the Fed’s hikes starting to dampen inflation? Oil, grains, and metals have all fallen from their highs. But the rarely spoken of Cotton market was one of the first to crack…falling from 1.58/lb to 0.95/lb in just a few short days. We’re digging into this sharp drop and just why and how Cotton is involved in seemingly everything with RCM’s very own cotton king, LOGIC advisors Ron Lawson.

In this episode, Ron is giving us the low down on how and why he believes it’s not Dr. Copper which acts as the global economic barometer, but how Cotton is the real Canary and leading indicator on global demand. In between those talks, we’re covering all things Cotton including crop insurance, irrigated vs dry land, the scam that was Pima and Egyptian Cotton, the process of cotton – which countries have it, which want it, ginning it, spinning it, dyeing it, global commodity merchant co’s pushing it around, and even micro-plastics, climate change, and how Cotton always flows to the cheapest labor source. Finally, we’re walking in some high Cotton putting Ron in the hot seat. Will we ever get the growth back? Tune in to get these critical hot takes — SEND IT!

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

29 Jul 2022

AG MARKET UPDATE: JULY 21 – 28

Corn bounced back this week as hot and dry August forecasts returned across the western corn belt, and eventually are forecasted to move east right in the middle of pollination.  To be clear – hot and dry while pollinating is less than ideal.  In addition, the weekly crop ratings came in lower with the national good/excellent ratings estimates at 61%. Ratings have lowered 6% in the last month, and with the current forecast this trend is likely to continue. All these factors together, along with a weaker US dollar, helped the rebound for the week. While this turnaround has been nice on prices, the yields are a concern, and it will continue to be important to monitor pricing into the weekend and start of trade on Sunday.

Via Barchart

The forecast change has also been supportive of bean prices as August is an important month for yield development. Soybean supply and demand has been tighter over the years and if we lose 1 or 2 bushels in national yield it will result in a big hit to world supply. September beans traded over the $15 mark for the first time in a month with this week’s gains. The November contract has the potential to reach back over $15 with the current momentum, assuming no new bearish forecast changes over the weekend. Soybeans good/excellent ratings came in at 59% nationally, following the worsening trend that corn has had, losing 4% g/e in July.

Via Barchart

Russia and Ukraine

Reports were that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to a safe export corridor, and then…. Russia bombed another port (imagine that)… so that did not last long. Russia wants any obstacles to Russian agriculture exports to be eliminated, which seems unlikely. White House spokesman John Kirby either majorly misspoke or lied this week claiming that there were 80 ships ready to leave the ports with 20 million tons of Ukrainian grain. The largest grain shipping vessels can only hold about 60,000 tons so if there are 80 ships.  Quick math here = they will only be able to ship 4-5 million tons. Luckily this did not spook the markets as traders knew this to be the case with SovEcon saying there are no more than 10 such ships ready to ship grain. The mines remain in the shipping corridors and this conflict will continue to drag out through the summer.

Equity Markets

The equity markets had a good week following a few down days with some strong earnings and some misses. The Fed unsurprisingly raised rates 75 points this week leaving what comes in the next rate hike up in the air. The 2nd quarter GDP posted another negative number after posting a negative first quarter. Historically 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth signals a recession. There are lots of challenges right now with inflation still a major problem but with companies lowering guidance for the rest of the year the current economic slowdown may continue.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The drought monitor below shows where we stand week to week.

Podcast

Are the Fed’s hikes starting to dampen inflation? Oil, grains, and metals have all fallen from their highs. But the rarely spoken of Cotton market was one of the first to crack…falling from 1.58/lb to 0.95/lb in just a few short days. We’re digging into this sharp drop and just why and how Cotton is involved in seemingly everything with RCM’s very own cotton king, LOGIC advisors Ron Lawson.

In this episode, Ron is giving us the low down on how and why he believes it’s not Dr. Copper which acts as the global economic barometer, but how Cotton is the real Canary and leading indicator on global demand. In between those talks, we’re covering all things Cotton including crop insurance, irrigated vs dry land, the scam that was Pima and Egyptian Cotton, the process of cotton – which countries have it, which want it, ginning it, spinning it, dyeing it, global commodity merchant co’s pushing it around, and even micro-plastics, climate change, and how Cotton always flows to the cheapest labor source. Finally, we’re walking in some high Cotton putting Ron in the hot seat. Will we ever get the growth back? Tune in to get these critical hot takes — SEND IT!

 

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

 

22 Jul 2022

AG MARKET UPDATE: JULY 14 – 21

Despite a brutal stretch of hot and dry conditions, Corn prices have continued to struggle, tied in with ever changing forecasts looking at favorable conditions ahead. In total, the trend is clearly down with the cooler forecast for the corn belt and a potential for trade in the Black Sea to resume. Energy prices have also fallen pulling other commodities with it as Russia re-opened the Nord Stream pipeline into Europe (at less than 50% capacity). While prices have retreated to pre-Russia invasion of Ukraine, the potential for a sub trend line corn crop in the US remains. Basis is still strong in many areas showing that there is a disconnect and some areas are very worried about potential yield loss.  Weather during the first half of August will be huge for this crop – as forecasts change so will prices.  Expect more volatility ahead!

Via Barchart

Patterns in Soybeans have been almost identical to Corn – ever changing weather conditions along with uncertainty in global demand are driving prices lower.  26% of soybean production is in areas currently experiencing moderate to severe drought. The weather coming up is important for beans as well; if the cooler forecasts do not come to pass and hot and dry conditions continue beans should see a bump in price. Old crop exports were strong this week while new crop fell in the expected range.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets rallied this week stringing together several positive days despite all the concerns of recession and inflation remaining in the market. This appears to be an area that is tradable as many equities are off their lows on the year but still well below the highs. Q2 Earnings have also given some guidance as companies have taken inflation and other rising costs into account for what to expect ahead. Tech stocks have also gotten a big boost this week along with crypto.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The drought monitor below shows where we stand week to week.

Podcast

Are the Fed’s hikes starting to dampen inflation? Oil, grains, and metals have all fallen from their highs. But the rarely spoken of Cotton market was one of the first to crack…falling from 1.58/lb to 0.95/lb in just a few short days. We’re digging into this sharp drop and just why and how Cotton is involved in seemingly everything with RCM’s very own cotton king, LOGIC advisors Ron Lawson.

In this episode, Ron is giving us the low down on how and why he believes it’s not Dr. Copper which acts as the global economic barometer, but how Cotton is the real Canary and leading indicator on global demand. In between those talks, we’re covering all things Cotton including crop insurance, irrigated vs dry land, the scam that was Pima and Egyptian Cotton, the process of cotton – which countries have it, which want it, ginning it, spinning it, dyeing it, global commodity merchant co’s pushing it around, and even micro-plastics, climate change, and how Cotton always flows to the cheapest labor source. Finally, we’re walking in some high Cotton putting Ron in the hot seat. Will we ever get the growth back? Tune in to get these critical hot takes — SEND IT!

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

15 Jul 2022

AG MARKET UPDATE: JULY 8 – 14

Corn had a volatile week suffering losses to drop back to levels it saw at the start of last week. The USDA report on Tuesday this week wiped out the gains from last week after a bearish report. Ending stocks came in higher than expectations, not by much, but enough to be bearish. The recession fears affect every market and corn is no different as ending stocks will grow as less ethanol is produced and other uses will lower. The weather is the bullish factor in the market right now with hot and dry conditions expected across much of the corn belt during pollination. The longer this weather outlook stays, the more bullish it will become as yields struggle. Russia says they have agreed to a safe export corridor for Ukrainian grain.

Via Barchart

Soybeans took it on the chin post report just like corn. While the report numbers were not overly bearish the loss in crude oil and soy oil prices have weighed on beans lately. The weather issues for corn are not as big a concern for soybeans (yet) but will be something that could come up in the future. South American yields are still hard to get a full picture of with the USDA still differing from many estimates. China canceled a bean purchase on top of a poor export report for the week.

Via Barchart

Cotton has continued its move lower despite widespread abandonment in west Texas. This comes from the expect of demand destruction with a potential worldwide recession ahead and producers sitting on plenty of supply. Prices could be even worse if the US was having a good growing season, but the demand destruction along with a very strong US dollar does not help cotton. With the loss of many hedgers in the market due to the loss of crop, specs will be the market mover, trading on technical indicators, not fundamentals, for the foreseeable future and will decide the direction with mills on the sidelines too.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets continue their game of “recession or not” with the up and down trade. Another hot CPI number of 9.1% came in this week, the market was expecting it to be in the high 8s so this was still a bad number. While commodity prices have come down other areas of the market remain painful. Earnings this week were disappointing for banks kicking a market that was down and needed some positive news. The market will continue this back-and-forth game until everyone decides we are in the clear or the recession is unavoidable.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The drought monitor below shows where we stand week to week.

Podcast

There is an agriculture tug of war happening across the nation, impacting America’s farmland. Fertilizer prices are continuously fluctuating, and it has us taking a page the “The Clash” should we stay, or should we go?! And we aren’t the only ones. Many farmers are asking their agronomist and chemical salespeople, “what will fertilizer cost me the rest of the season, and what are my options if I don’t want to go all-in on my typical fertilizer treatment plan?”

In this episode of the Hedged Edge, we are joined by a special guest who needs no introduction in his local circle, Dick Stiltz. Dick is a 50-year veteran of the fertilizer and chemical industry and is the current Agronomy Marketing Manager of Procurement fertilizer and crop protection at Prairieland FS, Inc in Jacksonville, IL. He is at the pulse of the current struggle and here to discuss the topic at hand.

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

01 Jul 2022

AG MARKET UPDATE: JUNE 23 – JULY 1

Corn reacted negatively to the Stocks and Acreage report this week despite there not being any surprises and the numbers coming out close to pre-report estimates. Planted acres came in at 89.921 million acres (89.861 million estimate) and June 1 stocks were 4.346 billion bushels (4.343 billion estimate). The bearish news is improving weather after the 4th of July with rains expected across most of the corn belt. The concern over the wet spring causing prevent plant acres in ND and MN does not appear to have come to fruition with high prices motivating farmers to get the crop in the ground. Trading resumes Tuesday morning after the long weekend so any change in weather or world news could lead to a volatile opening after another kick in the teeth on Friday.

Via Barchart

Soybeans had a good week making solid gains before dipping after the report and then getting crushed today (Friday). The bean planted acres was 88.325 million acres (90.446 million estimate) and June 1 stocks was 971 million bushels (965 estimate). The acres number was surprising as it came in 2.121 million acres below pre-report estimates. While the favorable weather for corn is also favorable to beans, they have a different story than corn to follow. Chinese demand needs to return to the market but 2+ million acres of production is a lot to be off by. The inability for Soybeans to break out higher following the report shows that they still have a fight ahead of them and that outside market risks likely have an impact on prices. Friday’s trade hit beans hard and the long weekend holds uncertainties.

Via Barchart

Wheat moved lower on the week pre-report and continued lower after it with no surprises only to get crushed on Friday. All wheat planted acres were 47.092 million acres (47.017 million estimate) and 660 million bushels in June 1st stocks (655 million estimate). After a tough Friday, wheat has plenty of non US weather related news to follow and any developments over the 4th of July weekend will be seen on Tuesday.

Via Barchart

As you can see in the chart below cotton has had a rough 2 weeks. With demand expected to decrease with the possibility of a recession coming, this reaction is clear and puts fiber prices at the mercy of the economy’s future. The other side to this is that US production will likely be lower than expected with so much dryland in west Texas and other serious drought areas (see map below) expected to not produce a crop. Growers planted 12.5 million acres in 2022, up 11% from last year.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets were relatively flat on the week after a few up and down days. The market headlines keep being “market rallies as fear of recession lessens” or “market falls as recession fears remain” so the market is still looking for guidance as it continues lower. July’s news will be similar to June with inflation and the Fed being the main drivers.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The drought monitor below shows where we stand week to week.

Podcast

There is an agriculture tug of war happening across the nation, impacting America’s farmland. Fertilizer prices are continuously fluctuating, and it has us taking a page the “The Clash” should we stay, or should we go?! And we aren’t the only ones. Many farmers are asking their agronomist and chemical salespeople, “what will fertilizer cost me the rest of the season, and what are my options if I don’t want to go all-in on my typical fertilizer treatment plan?”

In this episode of the Hedged Edge, we are joined by a special guest who needs no introduction in his local circle, Dick Stiltz. Dick is a 50-year veteran of the fertilizer and chemical industry and is the current Agronomy Marketing Manager of Procurement fertilizer and crop protection at Prairieland FS, Inc in Jacksonville, IL. He is at the pulse of the current struggle and here to discuss the topic at hand.

 

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].