RCM Ag Services

Tag: DOW Jones

03 Mar 2026
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Dow Jones, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: JANUARY 12 – MARCH 3

Corn fundamentals remain quietly supportive. Domestic demand continues to provide a steady floor, with ethanol grind holding firm amid workable processing margins. Feed demand has also remained intact, supported by stable livestock numbers. Export business has been competitive but not aggressive, as global buyers weigh U.S. offers against South American supply. Overall, stocks are comfortable but not burdensome, keeping the downside limited while failing to create urgency on the upside. From a technical perspective, corn futures have respected both support and resistance levels throughout the month. The market continues to trade sideways, with carry in the futures structure signaling that end users are not pressed for immediate coverage. Until a weather premium develops or export demand accelerates meaningfully, rallies have tended to stall near the upper end of the range.

Via Barchart

Soybeans continue to be shaped by global supply clarity. South American production is largely known, which has limited the market’s ability to price in uncertainty. Domestic crush demand remains a supportive feature, particularly as renewable fuel feedstock demand underpins usage. However, export competition has kept shipments steady rather than explosive. The soybean market has struggled to sustain rallies, repeatedly testing higher levels before fading. Technically, the contract structure suggests hesitation from speculative buyers, with range-bound behavior dominating trade. Without a clear acreage shift or early-season weather concern, soybeans appear anchored between steady demand and comfortable global supply.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

Equity markets traded with higher volatility over the past month as investors weighed solid economic data against persistent inflation concerns and firm energy prices. Major indexes moved within broad ranges rather than establishing sustained trends, with noticeable sector rotation throughout the month. Energy and defensive sectors generally outperformed, while rate-sensitive growth stocks faced intermittent pressure. Overall, the tone shifted toward cautious positioning, with investors quicker to trim risk on rallies while still supporting markets on pullbacks.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • Energy markets had been steadily moving higher heading into the weekend before the US bombed Iran which led to gains to start the week. How long the conflict lasts will be important to the global supply chain of oil.
  • Wheat is off recent lows but sold off from Monday’s high, the recent gains were needed but will need a little more help to get and stay above $6.

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor. With planting starting later this spring we need rain in a lot of places in March.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

 

12 Jan 2026
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Education, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: POST JANUARY 12 USDA REPORT

Corn took a dive on today’s USDA report with 1.3 million more harvested acres and larger yield than expected coming in at 186.5 bu/ac. With this comes more production leading to larger ending stocks, brutal two-sided hit for the corn bulls. Corn had done a great job of climbing higher since early December, but today’s report gives all the momentum back to the bears with South America’s growing season off to a great start. Corn’s big move lower sent it below all technical support and unless we see a quick turnaround this week what was a support level could turn into overhead resistance as we are now at levels last seen in August.

Via Barchart

While the USDA report was not as bad for beans, it did suffer double digit losses with a slightly higher than expected national yield of 53 bu/ac. One important item was that US exports were revised lower due to more world competition. This is important as we still need China to buy US beans as we do not have another major market catalyst as the Trump administration has not been friendly for the implementation of SAF (sustainable aviation fuel). The month and half of +$11 beans we saw will be a struggle to get back to as South America continues to roll on with another record crop expected.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

Equity markets roll on despite some days of volatility with headlines from the White House and drama surrounding the Fed. As you can see in the chart below since last April’s tariff scare the markets have been steadily moving higher.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • The precious metals trade continued its strong 2025 into the start of 2026 with new highs in gold and silver.
  • Wheat had ending stocks rose modestly and the price was dragged lower with corn.

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

 

14 Nov 2025
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Education, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: OCTOBER 27 – NOVEMBER 14

Corn’s Thursday rally was met with a post report Friday dip and gave up 10 cents back to $4.30. Despite the late season crop problems of drought and rust, the USDA did not find the corn yield loss that was expected and came in with a 186 bu/ac estimate, higher than the trade estimate. With higher production came higher US ending stocks, but those were not raised as much as yield as corn exports and domestic industrial demand has been exceptional this fall. The chart still looks constructive, but after a 30-cent rally in one month, the market will look to take a breather, especially after today’s report.

Via Barchart

Beans have been on a great run higher, albeit with some volatility, until Friday’s USDA report. Coming in that hot to a report can lead to a let down which we saw to some extent. The bean yield numbers were not as surprising as corn, coming in close to estimates, but the market still took a hit. The number to look at was the US held bean imports to China unchanged at 112 MMT for the 25/26 marketing year. A flash sale report did show sales of 1.1 mbu to China around the time the trade deal was in the works. The delayed data is hard to fit with all the other news out there but China buying anything is a good sign.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

Equity markets have been volatile the last few weeks as worries of an AI bubble continue and several large companies such as Palantir, Meta and Oracle are well off their 52 week highs. Volatility will likely remain in the market for a bit as we will get caught up on economic data that was missing during the government shutdown.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • The wheat numbers were bearish as domestic and world stocks continue to climb on record world yields in all producing countries and exporters finding exports difficult to come by even at rock bottom prices. Wheat will remain an anchor on corn rallies.
  • Cotton adjustments show 900K more bales of US production, 200k more bales of US exports, and 700K more bales of US ending stocks compared to September.

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor as harvest rolls on.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

 

28 Oct 2025
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Livestock, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: SEPT 30 – OCT 27

Corn has continued to trade range-bound between $4.10 and $4.30 with a nice recent run to the top of the range. Follow through buying to push towards $4.50 will be needed as harvest heads toward a finish and the large supply coming out of the fields. All crops got a boost after positive news from Secretary Bessent over the weekend saying China will be buying US soybeans (and assume other commodities as well). The market still has downside risk with a large US crop and global economic issues that for now are not flashing major warning signals but the market has been recession warry since the tariffs went into place in April.

Via Barchart

Beans continued their recent rally with positive news on US and China trade relations from Secretary Bessent. We will need to see these soybean purchases from China come to fruition without any more escalations that could put this progress at risk. With the continued Government shutdown the lack of information to trade from the USDA will make private reports the main news.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

Equity markets continue to move higher after a recent dip as Gold has fallen off its recent highs but equities, lead by AI and tech, continue to climb higher with 2 months left in the year.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • Cattle futures have fallen quickly off record highs as question marks around the USDA and white house about how they want to address high beef prices continue.
  • Cotton remains quiet with no major news to get it out of the mid 60 cent range.
  • The government shutdown continues.

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor as harvest rolls on.

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

Check it Out:

Harvest, Hedging, and History: Navigating Agricultural Markets from Grain Elevators to Futures Contracts

30 Sep 2025
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Podcast, Research, Risk Management, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: SEPTEMBER 12 – 30

Corn had been trading in a range north of $4.20 the last couple weeks but dropped below there on the heels of the Sept 30th USDA Report. The USDA raised US ending stocks for corn from 1.325 billion bushels to 1.532 billion which pushed December corn prices to new 1-month lows. With plenty of supply and massive crops in both the US and South America the last 2 years, balance sheets have ample supply while demand for US corn remains strong outside of demand from China. With funds holding bearish positions, it will take a combination of them changing their tone and China showing up with purchases to give prices some news to rally on unless we get in the fields and the yield just isn’t there.

Via Barchart

Beans were lower post USDA report as well despite the report being neutral continuing their recent downtrend. The biggest hit to beans in the past couple weeks came when President Trump and President Xi had a call and no announcement of Ag purchases were made around it. Without China buying US beans there is no major upside currently, except for potentially lower yields. South America’s crop has been able to satisfy China’s needs as that trend will continue moving forward until they run out of supply.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

Equity markets continue to trade at or near all time highs as a slowing job market could lead to more rate cuts after the Fed cut by 25 basis points this month. While GDP growth had a strong bounce back quarter and the stock market is still doing well, fueled by AI stocks, the overall economy is showing some warning signs but remains strong.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • Wheat continues to make new lows with a slightly bearish USDA report with larger US production.
  • Corn harvest is 18% complete and soybean harvest is 19% complete.
  • It seems more and more likely that there will be some extra government assistance to farmers this year with the depressed prices.

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor as harvest begins.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

Check it Out:

Convenience vs. Cost: Navigating Agricultural Markets, Convenience, and Consumer Spending

12 Aug 2025
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: AUG 4 – AUG 12 USDA REPORT

188.8 bu/acre… Hard to find a silver lining in the report for corn as the USDA ripped the band-aid off from the start instead of slow playing it. The average trade guess was 184-185 bu/ac which led to a big selloff seeing new contract lows. On top of the big yield number the USDA took the FSA planted acreage data and added 3 million acres in planted corn. The extra yield and acres could add nearly an extra 1 billion bushels of corn to the US and world ending stocks. The report did nothing to help the direction corn has been trading.

Via Barchart

The bean yield was also above pre-report estimates, coming in at 53.6 bu/acre. Prices were higher though following the 3 million acre planted acreage cut and total production cut by 90 million bushels. The market was caught off guard by the 3 million acre shift as evidenced in the opposite price reaction to the report numbers. The bean rally will give farmers a chance to catch up on sales but it will also motivate more acres to be planted in South America on stronger prices.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

Equity markets continued to perform well as AI and tech companies are still the major movers. Nvidia and Microsoft are now a combined 15+% of the S&P 500 index, causing some to worry about concentration, but luckily they are performing well so right now a rising tide raises all boats (money in S&P ETFs).

Via Barchart

Other News

  • Wheat was in line with re-report estimates and had no major surprises. The weakness in corn will continue to weigh on wheat however.
  • Cotton saw a boost post report after the USDA lowered planted and harvested acres. Production was trimmed by 1.39 million bales to 13.21 million bales.

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

 

18 Jul 2025
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, U.S. Dollar, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: JUNE 30 – JULY 18

Corn continues to struggle but saw a solid bounce this week after hitting new contract lows. U.S. weather has largely been non-threatening, with most areas benefiting from favorable summer conditions—though pockets of stress remain, particularly in the Southern Plains and Southwestern Corn Belt, where upcoming heat could pose challenges. In South America, Brazil’s main corn crop is estimated to be over 10% larger than last year’s. With strong production expected from both the U.S. and Brazil, the global supply glut remains a key headwind, continuing to weigh on prices over the past few months. The corn crop had a G/E rating of 74% to start the week.

Via Barchart

Soybeans, like corn, had a solid week following a recent dip. Prices have held relatively steady, trading in the $10–$11 range. Favorable U.S. weather has supported early crop development, but late-July heat could pressure some of the later-planted areas. Globally, Brazil remains on pace for a record soybean crop, while Argentina is facing some production challenges and policy-related uncertainty that has slowed farmer sales. November soybean futures ended the week just above all major moving averages (20, 50, 100, and 200-day), setting the stage for a key technical test as we head into next week. Beans had a G/E rating of 70%, better than expected.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

Equity markets continue to push higher, setting new records as the AI trade returns to the spotlight ahead of earnings season. Meanwhile, the Trump White House is adding volatility, with markets reacting to shifting headlines around the future of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. While Powell’s position appears secure for now—at least through the next eight months—any change could rattle markets, as evidenced by the sharp reaction to a recent false report.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • The last two USDA reports lacked surprises, good or bad, which has created a trade focused on weather.
  • The USD weakness continues as it holds around 98, off the recent lows of 96 and well below the recent highs around 108.

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

 

13 Jun 2025
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: APRIL 29 – JUNE 13

Corn continues to struggle with any rallies as you can see in the chart below every recent high is lower than the previous. The June 12th USDA report was lackluster with no real changes and not enough good news to give the bulls help. With the crop planted, 75% good/excellent, and non-threatening growing weather ahead, the bulls need a weather issue and/or positive trade news to change the direction of the market. The next major report is the June 30th Stocks and Acreage Report that tends to cause some volatility.

Via Barchart

Soybeans received great news to end the week with better-than-expected biofuel mandates from the Trump administration. You can see how the news was received after a lackluster USDA report earlier in the week in the chart below. Beans will need to breakthrough recent highs or at least stay above the moving averages they broke through to keep some positive momentum as they are where they were back in February which is at least better than corn’s price movement. Planting should wrap up soon and good growing weather will move this crop along. Beans received one piece of good news in the biofuel mandates as they await news on any deal with China to help push higher.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

Markets have settled down after another V shape recovery following the tariff driven dip at the beginning of April. The leveling off slightly below all-time highs shows that the market is hesitant in what to expect moving forward but acknowledges that the initial reaction to tariffs with negotiations ongoing were an overreaction. While the market could fail here and move lower with negative trade news the biggest domino the market is watching is China while also keeping an eye on developments in the Middle East.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • Israel and Iran’s conflict appears to be getting worse with more attacks while the US tries to position itself to lower tensions. Crude Oil prices will watch the news as a global economic slowdown vs lower production due to war would face off.
  • Cotton has been quiet with a lack of foreign demand with global economic uncertainty.

 

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

 

29 Apr 2025
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Education, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: APRIL 14 – 29

Over the past two weeks, corn futures have experienced significant volatility, primarily from trade policy developments and supply and demand dynamics. In early April, the market faced pressure as the U.S. implemented tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, prompting retaliatory measures, including a 15% tariff on U.S. corn by China. This escalation raised concerns about reduced export demand, leading to a sell-off in corn futures. However, the market rebounded when President Trump announced a delay in the implementation of tariffs on Mexican goods, alleviating fears of diminished demand from Mexico, the largest importer of U.S. corn. The market has tight US and global supplies with the recent USDA revisions resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 9.6%, the lowest in 3 years. South American weather remains non-threatening and US planting continues to make progress with many areas ready to get rolling in May.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have also faced sharp swings in the past two weeks, driven by global trade tensions, weather and repositioning. China’s retaliatory tariffs on US beans lead to a big drop in US exports, at the same time Brazil’s exports to China surged. Weather in some areas of Brazil has raised some concerns about a potential dip in yield but another record crop is still expected. Spec traders have started positioning a small long position after it has been beaten down so much they are hoping for a rally that could come with any US issues with planting or lower planted acres.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

Markets have seen wild volatility this month but have calmed lately as the S&P 500 tries to hold above 5,500, a point many saw as resistance. While trade negotiations on tariffs continue with the world the market needs a stream of announcements that progress is being made as the 90-day delay will get here very quickly.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • Global wheat supplies face potential tightening through next year due to lower production in the Black Sea as the Russia Ukraine war continues on.
  • Cattle prices continue to record highs as the US headcount is the lowest level since 1951.

Drought Monitor

As planting approaches here is the most recent drought monitor.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

13 Mar 2025
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Futures, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: FEB 14 – March 12 USDA REPORT

First Glance:

Quiet report with no real changes made in production. The dark cloud over the market of tariffs was not addressed in a major way in this report as the demand picture remains blurred by how long the trade war could last. Nothing from the report changes the trade in a meaningful way for corn, soybeans or wheat.

Corn             24/25 US Corn Stocks:  1.540 BBU (1.516 BBU Estimate)

                       24/25 World Corn Stocks:  288.94 MMT (289.93 MMT Estimate)

                       24/25 Brazil Corn Prod: 126 MMT (126.07 Estimate)

                       24/25 Argentina Corn Prod: 50 MMT (49 Estimate)

 

  • Corn had a boring report with balance sheets remaining unchanged across the board. Global corn stocks were slightly lower and China imports were 2 mmt lower. Corn needs to get through technical resistance at the 50 day moving average ($4.59 ½) to see a move higher, it is currently trading at $4.55.

 

Beans        24/25 US Bean Stocks:  380 MBU (379 MBU Estimate)

                    24/25 World Bean Stocks:  121.41 MMT (124.56 MMT Estimate)

                    24/25 Brazil Bean Prod: 169 MMT (169.18 Estimate)

                    24/25 Argentina Bean Prod: 49 MMT (48.88 Estimate)

 

  • Beans did not receive much news as US bean stocks remained the same while lowering world ending stocks 2.93 mmt. The one item of note is that the USDA lowering the seed usage 3 mbu, potentially hinting at a lower bean acre number.

 

Wheat        24/25 US Wheat Stocks:  819 MBU (797 MBU Estimate)

                     24/25 World Wheat Stocks:  260.08 MMT (257.62 MMT Estimate)

 

  • Wheat was slightly changed this month with larger supplies, higher consumption, reduced exports and an increase in ending stocks. Exports were lowered for the EU, Russia and the United States. While not by large amounts (0.9 million tonnes) it was enough to move the market slightly lower with no big news in corn or beans.

Overview:

A quiet report as the market looks elsewhere for news to dictate trade. As China gets involved in the tariff war with Canada and Trump steps up tariffs on some imports while delaying others, there remains more questions than answers. News from the White House will be the main market mover moving forward until the planting intentions report at the end of the month. While South American weather is not a problem currently that is always a variable to keep an eye on as their second crop begins to take shape.

Note from the report: “The WASDE report only considers trade policies that are in effect at the time of publication. Further, unless a formal end date is specified, the report also assumes that these policies remain in place.” This is important because US tariffs on Canada and Mexico were delayed until April 2 on all products covered by the USMCA meaning theses numbers are estimates if this is resolved before then.

Equity Markets

The equity markets have given up all gains since the election in November as trade wars and tariffs dominate the headlines with the chip stocks and market leader Nvidia getting hit hard as recession fears ramp up. The global markets, after lagging the US markets for several years coming out of Covid, have ramped up recently, having a better start to 2025.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • The tariff war is up and running as everybody tries to out tariff each other. How long this lasts will ultimately decide how much economic damage is done.
  • Canada has a new Prime Minister after Trudeau stepped down and Mark Carney from the liberal party took the position.

Disclaimer

RCM Ag Services is a registered DBA of Reliance Capital Markets II LLC. Trading futures, options on futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions are complex and involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Loss-limiting strategies such as stop loss orders may not be effective because market conditions or technological issues may make it impossible to execute such orders. Likewise, strategies using combinations of options and/or futures positions such as “spread” or “straddle” trades may be just as risky as simple long and short positions. There are no guarantees of profit. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. You may lose all or more than your initial investment. You should not rely on any of the information herein as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments. Opinions, market data and recommendations are subject to change without notice. Reliance Capital Markets II LLC shall not be held responsible for any actions taken based on this website or attached links. Parties acting on this electronic communication are responsible for their own actions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.