Category: Market Updates

23 Dec 2021

AG MARKET UPDATE: DECEMBER 9 – 22

Since early December, corn has had a great run as South America’s dryness continues and delays planting in some areas. The corn crop is only about 60% planted in Argentina, which is the slowest pace on record for late December. Anything planted after January 10th will probably experience some yield drag. Their planting rate is on par with last year, but the weather has been far dryer and looks to continue going forward. As you can see in the chart below, March corn has rallied 90+ cents since early September. With continued strong basis and raises at prices, farmers have been given a gift but when the farmers choose to claim the gift and how long the gift stays available is another question. If Argentina and Brazil stay dry, this rally could continue, and we could retest the summer’s highs. Ethanol margins shrunk, and crude fell but remain at much higher than average levels, which will also support corn.

Via Barchart

Soybeans, like corn, have enjoyed a nice rally as South American weather issues cause some worry.  This week, Brazil’s bean crop had its production estimate lowered by 3 million metric tons by Parana’s crop analysis firm, Deral. While Brazil is still on pace to produce a record crop, it is not expected to be as large. They increased planting this year, so a larger crop is expected in Brazil, even with some headwinds.  The basis is holding steady around the country for beans as we head into the new year. Beans and corn are likely to move together leading up to the January USDA report.

Via Barchart

Dow Jones

The Dow had a flat week and a half with volatility due to the Omicron variant having it all over the place with several large down days followed by a good bounce. The Omicron variant’s spread has been worrisome as restrictions start to come back into play in major cities. It will be important to keep an eye on this around the holidays as we also hope to see the “Santa Clause rally.” Senator Manchin also stopped President Biden’s BBB plan as he will not vote to approve it in its current form.

Podcast

Commodity prices have perpetually soared for the past year and continue to trend higher. We’re diving into the fertilizer forecast with a unique guest, Billy Dale Strader, a branch manager for Helena Agri-Enterprises in Russellville, KY., who is truly at the epicenter of the rising fertilizer prices.

Billy Dale planted his agriculture roots on his family-owned farm and has managed regional seed and chemical sales at Helena for the past decade. In this week’s pod, we tackle the big question for farmers and ultimately end-users — is the impact of higher-priced inputs, like seeds, chemicals, and fertilizer, on the supply and demand for the major U.S. crops? Listen or watch to find out!

 

 

Via Barchart.com

20 Dec 2021

The Leonard Lumber Report: The Three “C’s” of the Industry

Introducing the Three “C’s” of the Industry: 

The best way to recap the market is to look at its tone. To sum it up, we will introduce the 3 “C’s” or confusion, congestion, and consternation. We’ve heard repeatedly, “how could this have happened so fast?” The trade was not looking for an early start to the yearend run. It also believed that there was enough supply. That proved to be incorrect. Most of the supply issues are related to the congestion at transportation points caused by COVID and weather. Things are fluid but at a pace that allows shipping to stay fluid. That is not at a pace to fill in the needs. 

This leads us to the third “C,” or consternation. Concern and anxiety about future wood deliveries have trickled back into the marketplace. All have been caught in that nightmare this year and the nightmare that followed. Most are now working towards not being there again in 2022. So, we are ending the year with a more aggressive buy pattern than usual at a time when things are moving slow. 

The issue plaguing this industry is its overall weakness in defining value. At $600, 50% of the industry went hand to mouth. At $900, 80% of the industry is hand to mouth. There is no investment in between. The buy-side has to scale into the market as it falls, and that will take the volatility out of the market. Waiting for the bottom is not a business strategy. We think we are seeing more of that today, but after the fact. When everyone owns $1,200, it will be a long way down again. This commodity fits well between $650 and $750.

Let’s Get Technical:

There is a lot of noise between here and 1,000 in January. Trying to gauge the trend during the holidays is fruitless. We’ll say that January futures were up $20 for the week, but the RSI fell 13%. The market is technically very friendly, but trading during the quiet holidays with some big gaps below takes some enthusiasm away from the long side. The Fibonacci points below could be the range to finish out the year:

38% 929.80

50% 1079.00

61.8% 1228.20

 Weekly Round-Up:

This push higher had a lot of energy, and in this industry, the earlier the energy, the quicker the end. We think this market needs to cool some for the holidays, but we, including Rick Santelli, Kramer, the Fed, and everyone else, have never been here before. Today the consumer is accepting higher prices as the norm. There isn’t any pushback; builders are paying up, multifamily guys are paying up, homebuyers are paying up. Next year, we have no actual data to track for possible outcomes. Buying futures here could be the best trade of 2022.

 Open Interest:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

Commitment of Traders:

 https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

03 Dec 2021

AG MARKET UPDATE: NOVEMBER 18 – DECEMBER 2

Volatility was the name of the game this week as every market experienced it from, grains to equities. Corn partook in the excitement, as you can see from the chart below. Important to note is following the small rally in the past couple of days to get back to the levels we saw before Thanksgiving. Wheat was a big winner Thursday and pulled corn with it on the intensifying issues with Russia and Ukraine. If wheat rallies, expect it to pull corn with it even on limited corn news. The La Nina pattern continues to form in South America as southern Brazil remains dry, and forecasts have that continuing. Another non-corn-specific factor to keep an eye on will be energy prices, as ethanol production will depend on how the omicron variant will/could affect US travel into the winter and holiday season.

Via Barchart

Soybeans, like corn, saw a bounce the last couple of days to get back to close to the range we were in pre-Thanksgiving. The bounce has brought us back in the range we were trading for most of October, which seems like a good place for the market to hang around when there is a lack of news. Exports continued but were on the lower end of expectations this week, while soybean meal and oil were as expected. If beans could close this week over the 20-day moving average, that would be supportive for bulls who are looking for good news. As harvest is wrapped up, all eyes turn to South American weather and their crops this year.

Via Barchart

Crude oil has sank following the Thanksgiving holiday as concern over the new Omicron variant, and its impact on demand hit the market. While these concerns are valid as much is still unknown, the largest problem that seems immediate to demand will be air travel and international travel causing, less jet fuel demand. As of right now, it does not appear to be worrying many Americans, but as more cases are found, we will see how it will affect demand. OPEC+ countries also announced they might cut output if demand falls due to the virus, leading prices back higher.

Natural Gas prices have also faltered this week as a warmer U.S. winter is expected to occur, requiring less NG for heating. Diesel prices have also fallen a lot this week following the Omicron variant news and presents farmers with an opportunity to hedge their fuel needs for next year.

Via Barchart

Dow Jones

The Dow experienced a lot of volatility this week as news of the Omicron variant in the U.S. and more places worldwide spooked some investors. The reports are that it only has caused mild symptoms, which is good, but the reaction was not of fear of the virus itself but how the governments will respond with potential lockdowns and travel bans soon. On Thursday, the strong bounce-back shows that investors are still eager to get in the market, so any large pullbacks will be met with buying if it is seen as a jerk reaction, but any longer lasting weakness could be seen as a correction. The down-trend of the last week has made some investors worried and moved some to the sidelines while we see what happens. Powell will stay as head of the Fed and said they might start tapering and raising interest rates sooner rather than later as inflation does not appear to be transitory.

Via Barchart

Podcast

For the past year, commodity prices have perpetually soared and continue to trend higher. We’re diving into the fertilizer forecast with a unique guest, Billy Dale Strader, a branch manager for Helena Agri-Enterprises in Russellville, KY., who is truly at the epicenter of the rising fertilizer prices.

Billy Dale planted his agriculture roots on his family-owned farm and has managed regional seed and chemical sales at Helena for the past decade. In this week’s pod, we tackle the big question for farmers and ultimately end-users — is the impact of higher-priced inputs, like seeds, chemicals, and fertilizer, on the supply and demand for the major U.S. crops? Listen or watch to find out!

 

 

Via Barchart.com

29 Nov 2021

THE LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: Futures Were Off $35.70 for the Week

Futures Were Off $35.70 for the Week

The weeks are starting to look the same. Each one has numerous undefined potential threats. Unlike most commodities, this industry has so many working parts that it is hard to rank them from least to most. Let’s look at a few. 

The futures market continues to act top heavy every time it breaks through the $800 mark. A combination of speculative profit-taking and basis trades weigh on the run. Most of last week saw a positive market as the BC shipping issues grew. But the COVID talk on Friday changed the focus from worries of undersupplied to concerns of being oversupplied. Unlike most other commodities, housing is affected more by stock market moves, so Friday was tough. 

The Facts are in Front of Us

The facts in front of us are that business is excellent, but shipping has slowed. What we are having an issue with is the value of the commodity. If the marketplace stays at 1.6 and shipping remains at a slower pace, then most would agree that the high end of the cash trade is around the $700 mark, and with a typical $100 premium, the futures will be sitting at $800. If supply starts to move freely, cash could rest around $550 and futures closer to $600. This is a fair analysis and would challenge others to set it up differently. 

The Sleeper Out There is the Industry’s Psyche 

In the futures market, 70% of the industry was bearish back at $500. Today 80 to 90% are bearish at $800. That big negative push keeps the market underbought. Monday, the focus will be on any potential COVID disruptions. Tuesday, we should be back to transportation issues.

Let’s Get Technical:

The futures market is forming a volume area in the mid $ 700’s. If the market starts to rerun upside, that volume area measures up to the 38% retracement point of $924.85. If the market can get to the 38% mark — a good enough base was built, and the futures are on their way to the 61% mark of $1,225. That should be food for thought when developing a basis or general hedging strategy. Using calls would be prudent. On the other side, generally, if a market builds a volume area without a follow-through push, it is a very defined top to focus on. The overall structure of the recent trade in both cash and futures leads me to believe that the chart pattern is trying to build the top end of the trading range. 

Weekly Round-Up: 

The smartest strategy for those who need a product is to stay in front of it. Owning enough wood or having a derivative positioned for a run-up will keep you out of the middle of the noise. There is no way to navigate the issues thrown at us daily. The only way is to be proactive for those who like all the noise trade the spread. It’s a good buy -20 and a good sell +20. What I do see happening is that those in the middle will have a much harder time staying out of those whips back and forth. 

Open Interest and Commitment of Traders

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf 

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About The Leonard Report

The Leonard Lumber Report is a new column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

Before You Go…

For the past year, commodity prices have perpetually soared and continue to trend higher. We’re diving into the fertilizer forecast with a unique guest, Billy Dale Strader, a branch manager for Helena Agri-Enterprises in Russellville, KY., who is truly at the epicenter of the rising fertilizer prices.

 

19 Nov 2021

AG MARKET UPDATE: NOVEMBER 9 – 18

Corn has seen a good bounce since the Nov 9 USDA report and has traded relatively flat the past few days despite some intraday volatility. There was no specific market-moving news to  fuel this rally but tidbits here and there to help fuel  overall positive  sentiment. IHS Markit updated their acreage for 2022 planted acres estimate with corn coming in at 90.8 million acres, 2.5 million lower than 2020. Ethanol production stays hot as the weekly grind rose to 312 mbu, up 7 from the previous week and well ahead of the USDA estimate for the year. With increased input costs going into 2022, the decrease in acreage makes sense, as balance sheets will be tighter. As harvest nears the end, eyes turn to South American growing conditions for the months ahead.

Via Barchart

Soybeans, like corn, have seen a solid rally since the USDA report. Soybeans continued their rally on Thursday until the EPA announced they would release their renewable fuel mandates by the end of the week. As the Biden administration has not been much of an ally for the ag sector, the decline on the coming news makes sense. Soybeans had decent exports this week as buyers keep showing up in the market even as prices trek higher. Continued demand from exports will help support beans, and it will be interesting to see how many beans get stored and who took advantage of higher prices with forward pricing. We will see this play out in the cash & basis market come the spring, but we expect most farmers to store corn for now. IHS Markit estimated  the 2022 bean acreage to be 87.9 million acres, 700,000 acres less than 2020.

Via Barchart

Dow Jones

The Dow struggled this week as earnings continue to come in, but market volatility seems to be expected with the holiday season coming up. The Fed can still raise rates this year, and the Biden administration has not yet announced their nominee to head the Fed (either keeping Powell or someone new).

Cotton

Cotton has had life in the $1.10+ range for a while now as demand overseas is high for U.S. cotton. Growers have seen mixed yields across the country but nothing too surprising to the market. Cotton demand does not seem to be slowing down anytime soon as the world still is coming out of the pandemic, and some countries still have major restrictions.

Podcast

For the past year, commodity prices have perpetually soared and continue to trend higher. We’re diving into the fertilizer forecast with a unique guest, Billy Dale Strader, a branch manager for Helena Agri-Enterprises in Russellville, KY., who is truly at the epicenter of the rising fertilizer prices.

Billy Dale planted his agriculture roots on his family-owned farm and has managed regional seed and chemical sales at Helena for the past decade. In this week’s pod, we tackle the big question for farmers and ultimately end-users — is the impact of higher-priced inputs, like seeds, chemicals, and fertilizer, on the supply and demand for the major U.S. crops? Listen or watch to find out!

 

U.S. Drought Monitor

The maps below show the U.S. drought monitor and the comparison to it from a week ago. The outlined areas in black are areas that the drought will have a dominant impact.

 

Via Barchart.com

15 Nov 2021

The Leonard Lumber Report: Futures Drifted Lower With Cash 

Futures Drifted Lower With Cash 

Last week’s feature was a very sloppy cash market, which dragged futures lower on light volume. We are sure of two things going into this week — The first is that the industry wants to buy cash, and the other is that they don’t want to today, which would be a reason for the slow grind lower of futures. It is anticipating a buy. Starting Tuesday, the front month is January, and all the focus for the first quarter will be on it. The trade is looking closely at forward sales, but the fact that mill prices continue to inch lower daily has taken some out of the game. It’s interesting how many in the industry will hold out for the last $25 down, risking $100 up. We expect a better tone after the Thanksgiving holiday. 

Supply and Demand 

As the industry gears up for the next push, we must look at supply and demand issues again. On the supply side, we saw a decrease in shipments from Canada last month and are expecting the same in November number and again in December — These are transitory numbers. The production and shipments should go back to normal after the new year and new stumpage costs. Now, when exactly that extra supply hits is in question, the effect on the market will be driven by demand.

Reports of a Robust Q1

Reports of a very robust first half of the year are numerous. If that alone were the feature, we would be calling for sharply higher prices. With projects still experiencing a start/slowdown/stop cycle, we’re not sure the added production will offset the increase. 

If we are still looking at the $550 area as breakeven, this market is closer to a bottom than a top. Having never been too involved with the dumping/duty issue, it is too hard to make a call. If all the mills go up to $50, it is still cheap.

Let’s Get Technical:

The tail of two timeframes. The daily technical picture has been negative for about three weeks now. They are getting a little overdone if you measure the timeframe, but other than that, they are still showing a negative bias. 

The longer-term picture has been positive, just showing a downward wave in a positive cycle. Next Friday will give us a better look at the longer-term outlook.

Weekly Round-Up 

This next week has two immediate features, the basis trade, and the duty. Both are potential bear traps. We still believe that the last three months were just a form of price discovery. The market has most likely seen the bottom end but not yet the top.

Open Interest

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/random-length-lumber.html

About The Leonard Report

The Leonard Lumber Report is a new column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

Before You Go…

For the past year, commodity prices have perpetually soared and continue to trend higher. We’re diving into the fertilizer forecast with a unique guest, Billy Dale Strader, a branch manager for Helena Agri-Enterprises in Russellville, KY., who is truly at the epicenter of the rising fertilizer prices.

 

11 Nov 2021

AG MARKET UPDATE: OCTOBER 28 – NOVEMBER 9 USDA REPORT

Corn was struggling this week heading into the Nov 9th USDA report, where it saw a good bounce after its release before falling back to only finish up slightly higher on the day. The corn numbers that came out of the report were fairly neutral, with a 177 bu/acre yield and 15.062-billion-bushel U.S. production. The yield was slightly raised from 176.5 the month before but was right in line with estimates, so there was no significant reaction on that number. Overall, there were not many surprises for corn as most bullish reactions came from soybeans pulling them higher with them. With ethanol margins very profitable and crude oil staying higher, the demand side will continue to keep basis levels high. As harvest was 84% complete at the start of the week, there is still time for any weather issues to create issues to finish up harvest, but this is always expected, so being this far along is helpful.

Via Barchart

Soybeans had an excellent bounce post USDA report but finished well off the highs of the day. The yield came in at 51.2 bu/acre, down 0.3 from last month, along with lower world-ending stocks. As far as U.S. ending stocks. the USDA pegged it at a manageable 340 million bushels, slightly up from last month —these numbers are not outright bullish. South America’s weather is non-threatening right now; however, with solid world crush margins, there is not much reason for a bearish outlook heading into the winter. With funds currently flat, we may hang around this area trading until new news enters the market.

Via Barchart

There were no surprises in the wheat report,, but it did follow beans higher after a down week leading into the report. US wheat stocks came in at 583 million bushels (pre-report estimates were 581 million) and world-ending stocks of 275.80 million metric tons (pre-report estimates 276.5 MMT). Despite the recent pullback, there is still a bullish sentiment in the market moving forward for the time being.

Via Barchart

Dow Jones

The Dow has continued to trend higher this week as it has put together an impressive month despite Tuesday’s pullback. Many markets have led it higher from tech to industrials, with the new infrastructure bill playing a role.

Side note: The crypto markets have also been on a tear the past couple of weeks. It will be interesting to watch heading into the end of the year after an impressive last year and a half.

Podcast

For the past year, commodity prices have perpetually soared and continue to trend higher. We’re diving into the fertilizer forecast with a unique guest, Billy Dale Strader, a branch manager for Helena Agri-Enterprises in Russellville, KY., who is truly at the epicenter of the rising fertilizer prices.

Billy Dale planted his agriculture roots on his family-owned farm and has managed regional seed and chemical sales at Helena for the past decade. In this week’s pod, we tackle the big question for farmers and ultimately end-users — is the impact of higher-priced inputs, like seeds, chemicals, and fertilizer, on the supply and demand for the major U.S. crops? Listen or watch to find out!

 

U.S. Drought Monitor

The maps below show the U.S. drought monitor and the comparison to it from a week ago. The outlined areas in black are areas that the drought will have a dominant impact.

Via Barchart.com

01 Nov 2021

The Leonard Lumber Report: October 25-31

The Leonard Lumber Report is a new column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors. Without further ado, let’s dive into this week’s assessment:

Weakness In the Lumber Market

If you haven’t noticed lately, there has been a weakness in the lumber futures market. January futures fell $113 with never looking up due to a combination of a flat cash market and end-of-the-month position evening contributed to the selling. The futures market saw outright long liquidation in all months while the cash trade was flat, leading the market to seasonally hit a flat spot in mid-October (this one started later and now has hit the slow period later than usual). The pattern will now be of planning for the first quarter and its needs. Price will be driven by supply as we creep move towards Thanksgiving.

The challenge now is to gauge demand going into the end of the year. There was a sufficient decrease in production for the mills to get control back, but the continued disruptions in the field didn’t create any follow-through. We now need to wait for the demand to pick up at a pace to clear out inventories. My guess is that this will become the norm for the next year or so. Historically the marketplace goes into year-end with the least amount of inventory for the year. This year we also see a slowdown in logging caused by higher log costs. This is not showing up in the supply chain as of now. 

The algo selling is relentless. The end of the month selling of long positions created an excellent environment for algo selling. It took full advantage of the sales in the market. I expect to see them show up again this week, but it will go dormant without the other sales. It should be noted that we are seeing the fund type buying in January futures. It’s too early in the fundamental cycle to make much of a difference, but they are around.

Let’s Get Technical 

621.00 is the 61% retracement in January of the move. The RSI is 24%, so at 621, the market will be in the oversold zone by then. With the algo, selling points are irrelevant, but there could be a pickup in forward interest with January futures nearing cash. That would slow the algo, and the oversold condition will carry more weight. 

Final Takeaways

The trade has gone south. The hand-to-mouth traders are basking in the sunshine. Most have enough supply to keep them out. And finally, you have those who want to end the year with these numbers and not make a mistake. The net end result will be an underbought marketplace at some point. That said, I wouldn’t buy it just yet.

Open Interest

 

Have you heard?

We’re getting out of the field and onto the mic to bring you weekly market updates, commentary from commodity experts, and monthly interviews with the biggest names in agribusiness. Check out the latest episode of The Hedged Edge here:

About Brian Leonard

Brian Leonard is a 30+ year veteran in the commodities trading space. Brian began his career as an assistant in the Soybean pit in the early ’80s and moved on to wood products in 1994. Brian’s current role for RCM Ag Services is to serve as a Risk Analyst specializing in the wood products sector. His customer base spans a large spectrum ranging from wood producers to home builders with different risk management needs.

Do you have questions, or are you looking for more information? Reach out to Brain at [email protected] or 312-761-2636.

29 Oct 2021

AG MARKET UPDATE: OCTOBER 21 – 28

Corn has continued its rally as the bulls seem to have their mojo back following a time where they could have been uneasy. Despite the disappointing export report, corn was able to keep the momentum going Thursday. This week’s weather week will slow down harvest and could cause issues for what is remaining in the field. Higher basis has been seen across most of the country as a lack of available corn continues to put pressure on elevators while ethanol plants are running on great margins and can afford the basis. Going forward it will be interesting to watch how farmers manage the corn they store. Do they hold it until we see much higher prices? Will basis become so favorable it is hard to hold on to it while farmers are making payments for products for next year? These questions do not have any answers right now, and only time will tell, but one thing is for sure, input prices are going up and farmers know how valuable their crop is.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have had a good bounce from their low a couple of weeks ago, even if it is not as an inspiring rally as corn. Like corn, the weather will delay harvest and reduce yields in many areas that were off to a great first half. South American weather is generally good for the next week with Argentina receiving their best rains of the season so far. The weather over the coming weeks/next couple of months will be important to getting them off to a good start. Like corn, it will be interesting to see the number of beans stored vs. sold after harvest. As beans continue to struggle to find a pattern, we hope to see one develop in the coming weeks, hopefully, a good one.

Via Barchart

Dow Jones

The Dow had another good week with one big down day followed by a bounce-back on Thursday. As Q3 earnings continue to roll in, it has been a mixed bag with large companies like Amazon and Apple falling post reporting.

Oats

The Oats market has been on a tear the last two months as Canada’s and the upper plains crop had a multitude of issues due to drought conditions. This has created a supply problem on top of already higher grain prices across the board this year.

Podcast

The Hedged Edge is back, and we’re jumping into the thick of the commodity markets with RCM’s own King of Cotton – Ron Lawson. Cotton prices have exploded since the COVID crash, rising more than 236% from the March 2020 lows. While prices have backed off from the October 8th high, cotton is one of the purest supply + demand-driven markets around the world and has caught fire along with the global inflation bug currently running rampant across many commodity markets.

 

U.S. Drought Monitor

The maps below show the U.S. drought monitor and the comparison to it from a week ago. The outlined areas in black are areas that the drought will have a dominant impact.

Via Barchart.com

22 Oct 2021

AG MARKET UPDATE: OCTOBER 12 – 21

Corn has seen a good rally since the lows that came after the report. Due to the world energy values falling, corn is still well above where it was last week, despite the pullback on Thursday. Rain in the eastern corn belt that was expected to slow harvest coming up has turned a little drier but still present. The rains this week will further deteriorate the already poor-quality plants. The yields were coming in better than expected in some areas the first half of harvest, but we should expect them to be lower in the second half.. NOAA on Thursday released its outlook for a warmer winter in the U.S., which hit energy prices and could see them trend lower, which would not help corn, among other things. It is vital this time of year to start paying attention to South American weather, and right now, Argentina is off to a dry start.  Ethanol production continues to grow as margins remain above $1 per bushel, pushing plants to produce at top capacity. This week’s output was the 3rd largest ever and will be an important supporting factor for corn going forward.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have had a good rally since the report, like corn even with the pullback at the end of this week. World bean oil and veg oil markets saw a rally this week that helped pull soybeans up along with many of the same factors as corn. Weekly exports this week were 2x that of last week and the highest in 13 months, with China being the main buyer. According to the most recent USDA report, if we can get consistent demand from China moving forward, that should help soybeans despite the crop being bigger than initially thought. The chart is tough to look at, but the market did close above the 20 day moving average at one point this week. It will not get back to that level to end the week, but the double high of $12.49 ½ this week makes it look like that $12.50 range may be hard to break through unless we get more bullish news. All eyes will move to the 2022 contracts next week as we begin to look at options for stored beans.

Via Barchart

Dow Jones

The Dow had another good week as we have seen a good October for the equities market. After a tough September, this is good to see money back in the markets as questions around tapering, inflation and other Fed issues remain. Supply chain woes continue to plague many industries and will probably only worsen with the coming holiday season.

Podcast

In this week’s podcast Simon Quilty, from Melbourne, Australia, and Jeff Malec join Jeff Eizenberg to discuss global meat markets. We get an overview of the global meat market: beef, poultry, and pork, the main players and their main concerns, including labor and shipping shortages being a critical problem. Simon talks about how he goes about hedging the various contracts providing risk management for the current disruption for in-demand meat products.

For additional information, read our blog “Weigh More Than You Wanted To Know About Meat” here: https://www.rcmalternatives.com/2021/10/weigh-more-than-you-wanted-to-know-about-meat-with-agritrends-simon-quilty/

U.S. Drought Monitor

The maps below show the U.S. drought monitor and the comparison to it from a week ago. The outlined areas in black are areas that the drought will have a dominant impact.

Via Barchart.com