RCM Ag Services

Tag: USDA report

18 Nov 2022
Agriculture, Corn, Cotton, Crude Oil, Dow Jones, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, U.S. Dollar, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: NOVEMBER 4 – 18

Corn strung together several days lower in a row last week with a neutral USDA report in the middle of it. The USDA raised the US yield to 172.3, which was within the range of estimates. While corn had been trading sideways for some time, the move lower remained in its trading range, followed by a bounce back higher this week. The black sea export corridor deal being renewed is welcome news for the world supply chain. Brazil and Argentina got some needed rain while some dry areas missed out. They are still suffering drought conditions, but it is also still early in the year. Exports improved this week from last, as the current price levels attract buyers.

Via Barchart

Soybeans fell over the last two weeks, due to two days of large losses this week. Soybean Oil got hit as world veg oil prices fell, pulling beans down with it. The rain in Argentina helped speed up soybean planting but rain will still be needed moving forward as still about 25% of the country experiences drought. Bean exports, like corn, improved and better than expected this week. The lack of news makes this a difficult market to trade in as there are no overwhelming bullish or bearish factors dictating direction.

Via Barchart

The US cotton supply was raised in last week’s USDA report with better yields and lower demand. The problem in the cotton market right now is demand. While more money is being spent , fewer units are being bought which translates to less consumption. With the continued high energy prices and inflation issues across the world people are prioritizing eating and heating their homes and fueling their cars (good call) over buying new clothes. The potential for a looming world recession in 2023 does not ease demand concerns as we would not see demand for cotton pick up as producers would sit on inventory they currently have. Until we get more clarity on the world outlook and 2023 it is a time to be cautious. The weakening USD will be worth keeping an eye on.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets started off November with gains after a cooler than expected October CPI of 7.7%. While a drop is nice to see it is important to remember the target is 2-3% so we are still much closer to the top than the bottom with a Fed rate rise coming in early December. The markets seem to expect a 50-point hike, but there is still plenty of time for that to change and get priced in before. One big question that remains for the markets looking ahead is “what will December bring?”. Will there be a Santa Clause rally? Will markets fall as investors do some tax loss harvesting? Many investors still think a recession is coming in 2023 and the next month and half could give us a better idea what to expect.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

Podcast

The Hedged Edge is back online with a guest who could be this podcast’s most important guest of all time. At a time when inflation is running rampant through the world economy, drought conditions are drying up our rivers, and the global supply of grain is scarce. We are tasked with the question, “what the hell is going on in logistics, and is there any relief in sight?”

To help address these questions and more, I am joined today by a man that needs no introduction to most in the physical commodity sector – Woodson Dunavant with the Dunavant Logistics company based in Memphis, TN.

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

04 Nov 2022
Agriculture, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, U.S. Dollar, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: OCTOBER 21 – NOVEMBER 4

Corn had small losses on the week again as it has been range bound the last month. The market holding at this level certainly is not a bad thing when it traded $1 lower than current levels in July, it just needs a catalyst to push it one way or the other. The catalyst could be next week’s USDA Report as there could always be a surprise or two for the market. Many estimates see the USDA raising production from the October estimates, but by how much will be the question.  Ultimately with US harvest coming to a close and South America ramping up, the global outlook and weather will begin to dominate the markets. The US will also need plenty of moisture over the coming weeks and winter to 1. Raise river levels to help grain exports and 2. Improve subsoil moisture heading into 2023. Exports remain underwhelming and will likely be lowered for the year in next week’s report.

Via Barchart

Unlike Corn, Beans have had a much wider range after an initial flat start to harvest have rallied back hard over the past 2 weeks. This move higher is welcome and appears to be heading toward a test of the highs from early September – can it break through?  The USDA report will be the big news next week along with any news out of South America for weather and China potentially coming out of zero covid restrictions. Like corn, the USDA will likely raise US production next week and may lower exports. For any sustained move higher China will need to be a regular buyer and South American conditions would need to become less favorable.

Via Barchart

Cotton has had quite the week with 4 days that traded limit up at one point. With a lot of speculative positions in the market being short, this could be seen as a short covering rally as specs must exit their positions before expiration. On the physical side, the global cash market is a mess. Mills have massive inventories of both cotton and converted goods with no companies buying. The lack of buying by apparel companies shows their concern for the holiday season as inflation and market uncertainty will weigh on spending this year.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets have gained over the last 2 weeks; however, gains were muted after the Fed raised rates another 75 points earlier this week. This was expected but the comments by chair Powell after they came out were more hawkish than expected setting up an interesting point in next month’s meeting. Powell said the Fed is not likely to slow down yet setting up the potential for another 75 points in December, while analysts were leaning towards 50 before he spoke. The unemployment rate did tick higher in October while many companies also announced hiring freezes and grim outlooks for the first half of 2023. Crude oil spiked back above $90 a barrel on Friday continuing to bolster energy stocks. Midterm elections next week will also be closely watched as it may lay out what, if anything, will be done over the next 2 years.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

Podcast

Are the Fed’s hikes starting to dampen inflation? Oil, grains, and metals have all fallen from their highs. But the rarely spoken of Cotton market was one of the first to crack…falling from 1.58/lb to 0.95/lb in just a few short days. We’re digging into this sharp drop and just why and how Cotton is involved in seemingly everything with RCM’s very own cotton king, LOGIC advisors Ron Lawson.

In this episode, Ron is giving us the low down on how and why he believes it’s not Dr. Copper which acts as the global economic barometer, but how Cotton is the real Canary and leading indicator on global demand. In between those talks, we’re covering all things Cotton including crop insurance, irrigated vs dry land, the scam that was Pima and Egyptian Cotton, the process of cotton – which countries have it, which want it, ginning it, spinning it, dyeing it, global commodity merchant co’s pushing it around, and even micro-plastics, climate change, and how Cotton always flows to the cheapest labor source. Finally, we’re walking in some high Cotton putting Ron in the hot seat. Will we ever get the growth back? Tune in to get these critical hot takes — SEND IT!

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

14 Oct 2022
Agriculture, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Podcast, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: OCTOBER 7 – 14

The USDA report this week did not make any major changes to the US corn crop estimating a yield of 171.9 bushels per acres, down .6 bu/ac from September. The lack of surprises in the report kept corn trading along its path of late with no major losses or gains. The ending stocks were raised on lower demand with a high USD and world recession fears looming. While the balance sheets remain tight for corn but the recession fears lowering demand eases the balance sheet worries, for now. Harvest is still rolling along with much of the US experiencing drought conditions and no major rains in the forecast for many areas to slow it down much.

Via Barchart

Beans were the surprise of the report with estimated yields falling to 49.8 bu/ac, down 0.7 bu/ac from the September report. US ending stocks were also cut with the yield lowering getting an appropriate reaction higher aster the report. The main concern for beans right now is low demand and the potential of a record Brazil bean crop. The strong USD weighs on bean exports with China being slow buyers, as we have said before to start feeling better about the direction of beans’ price, we need China to show up more often in larger quantities.

Via Barchart

Cotton continued lower this week following the USDA report that saw a bearish reaction despite lower production estimates. Cotton is still fighting the supply vs demand issue to figure out where to go. Right now, the demand, or lack thereof, is winning as prices have been moving lower over the last 2 months. World recession fears impact the demand for cotton with lower demand balancing the lower production. The lack of demand makes it difficult to see a sizeable move higher in the near term but for cotton to be planted in areas that could grow corn and soybeans these price levels will not be attractive. We could potentially see a sideways trade until there is more certainty economically (demand) going forward.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets were positive this week due to a massive rally on Thursday to gain back the week’s losses and some. Inflation came in hot, again, this week giving the Fed the go ahead to raise rates another 75 basis points in November if they want to with a 15% chance of a 100 point raise. The market rallied on the CPI number, despite it being high, showing that there is still room for bounces in a bear market. It is hard to find much good news in the market with the proposed deal between the Biden administration and Rail workers unions falling apart this week as well, bringing the possibility of shutdowns back.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The drought monitor below shows where we stand week to week. As you can see much of the country is in drought conditions and will need moisture over the winter.

Podcast

Are the Fed’s hikes starting to dampen inflation? Oil, grains, and metals have all fallen from their highs. But the rarely spoken of Cotton market was one of the first to crack…falling from 1.58/lb to 0.95/lb in just a few short days. We’re digging into this sharp drop and just why and how Cotton is involved in seemingly everything with RCM’s very own cotton king, LOGIC advisors Ron Lawson.

In this episode, Ron is giving us the low down on how and why he believes it’s not Dr. Copper which acts as the global economic barometer, but how Cotton is the real Canary and leading indicator on global demand. In between those talks, we’re covering all things Cotton including crop insurance, irrigated vs dry land, the scam that was Pima and Egyptian Cotton, the process of cotton – which countries have it, which want it, ginning it, spinning it, dyeing it, global commodity merchant co’s pushing it around, and even micro-plastics, climate change, and how Cotton always flows to the cheapest labor source. Finally, we’re walking in some high Cotton putting Ron in the hot seat. Will we ever get the growth back? Tune in to get these critical hot takes — SEND IT!

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

30 Sep 2022
Agriculture, Corn, Dow Jones, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: SEPTEMBER 15 – 30

What a day…what a week for grain market volatility!  With the anticipated shrinking US Corn crop, Corn has been moving higher over the last few weeks and today did not disappoint. The Sept 30 USDA report was bullish for corn coming in with quarterly stocks of 1.377 billion bushels. This was below the trade estimate (by roughly 1.6 bu/ac), giving corn prices a boost. The charts remain range bound but are starting to look more bullish. The October USDA report is in 2 weeks and is sure to have some surprises, be prepared for the volatility ahead and take advantage of rallies to catch up on sales.

Via Barchart

Beans have not had any good news over the last 2 weeks as they continue lower into harvest. Friday’s report did nothing to help this, having 274 million bushels in quarterly stocks where the average trade estimate was 242 M/bu. While exports for beans have been slow, this number was much higher than expected and beans had an appropriate reaction lower. With a stronger USD vs international currency, there is limited expectation of any major export news in the near future.  While beans are still about $1 higher than the July lows, there is little hope that additional supportive news around beans is coming to bail out the bulls…higher stocks reported today, Brazil off to a great start to their planting, and limited exports…Bears win (not talking about the @Chicagobears).

Via Barchart

Wheat has had a good run since the August lows and received more bullish news in today’s USDA report. Wheat stocks came in below estimates at 1.650 billion bushels (1.778 billion estimate). The tight world wheat stocks are supportive for prices, along with the continued war in Ukraine. Any developments in the Black Sea trade corridor would add volatility to the grain markets, specifically wheat. Beyond the unknown factors of war sixty four percent of US winter wheat production is in areas that are currently experiencing moderate to exceptional drought. In this case the Bulls are the clear winners (not the @Chicagobulls).

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The markets were decimated in September with inflation not cooling off, increasing US & global recession fears and continued Fed rate hikes. There is no way around it, the news for the markets has been horrendous, with unemployment numbers remaining the limited good news. The S&P blew through the June lows today and is set to finish the quarter down -4.7% and the YTD down approximately – 24.8%. It’s anyone’s guess from there where the FED will go next; but as of now, they are set to continue to raise rates adding additional pressure to capital markets.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The drought monitor below shows where we stand week to week.

Podcast

Are the Fed’s hikes starting to dampen inflation? Oil, grains, and metals have all fallen from their highs. But the rarely spoken of Cotton market was one of the first to crack…falling from 1.58/lb to 0.95/lb in just a few short days. We’re digging into this sharp drop and just why and how Cotton is involved in seemingly everything with RCM’s very own cotton king, LOGIC advisors Ron Lawson.

In this episode, Ron is giving us the low down on how and why he believes it’s not Dr. Copper which acts as the global economic barometer, but how Cotton is the real Canary and leading indicator on global demand. In between those talks, we’re covering all things Cotton including crop insurance, irrigated vs dry land, the scam that was Pima and Egyptian Cotton, the process of cotton – which countries have it, which want it, ginning it, spinning it, dyeing it, global commodity merchant co’s pushing it around, and even micro-plastics, climate change, and how Cotton always flows to the cheapest labor source. Finally, we’re walking in some high Cotton putting Ron in the hot seat. Will we ever get the growth back? Tune in to get these critical hot takes — SEND IT!

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

12 Aug 2022
Agriculture, Corn, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: JULY 28 – AUGUST 12

Corn had had a good couple weeks heading into the August USDA report which gave updated ending stocks and yield numbers. The USDA lowered yield to 175.4 bu/acre from 177 in July (average estimate pre-report has 175.9). They raised old crop ending stocks but lowered 22/23 US and world ending stocks. Corn was rated 58% good/excellent this week, dropping 3% nationally from last week to help add bullish news to the corn market. The next month of weather will be important for kernel fill as the weather remains uncertain with some areas expecting hot and dry with others more seasonal weather in the ECB. Seeing world demand pick up would help corn whether it be China, ethanol demand, whatever it is the markets will gladly accept it.

Via Barchart

Beans have made small gains over the last 2 weeks and rallied after the report following an initial reaction lower. The initial reaction lower was due to the surprise of a higher yield with the USDA estimating the US crop at 51.9 bu/acre, well above the pre report estimates of 50.4. The slow export pace was also factored into the larger ending stocks but could speed up as beans out of the PNW to Asia are very competitive in the world market. The would be record yield still has ways to go with August and September weather still having mixed expectations.

Via Barchart

Cotton

Cotton was limit up after several up days following the report as the US’ crop continues to shrink with abandonment expected to continue to grow. 1.8 million bales ending stocks would be one of the lowest on record since 1960 and potentially problematic with world demand if we avoid a worldwide recession.

Via Barchart

Russia and Ukraine

Vessels carrying grain have left Ukraine but the first cargo was not accepted due to quality concerns at its intended location. While the grain was sitting for a long time this is not surprising as the quality was always going to be a concern. The newest problem is the Zaporzhye nuclear power plant, with the UN Security Council meeting to discuss what needs to be done to make sure there is a not a “catastrophe on a scale much greater than the consequences of the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant”.

Equity Markets

The equity markets have seen a strong and steady rally higher with consumer sentiment rising. CPI came in at 8.5% again this month so the positive is it did not go up from last month, the negative is it is still at 8.5% YOY so this number will need to start going down before there is too much confidence we have peaked with the Fed still raising rates. Production at several offshore drilling sights were paused for a short period this week while a problem was fixed causing some volatility in the energy sector.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The drought monitor below shows where we stand week to week.

Podcast

Are the Fed’s hikes starting to dampen inflation? Oil, grains, and metals have all fallen from their highs. But the rarely spoken of Cotton market was one of the first to crack…falling from 1.58/lb to 0.95/lb in just a few short days. We’re digging into this sharp drop and just why and how Cotton is involved in seemingly everything with RCM’s very own cotton king, LOGIC advisors Ron Lawson.

In this episode, Ron is giving us the low down on how and why he believes it’s not Dr. Copper which acts as the global economic barometer, but how Cotton is the real Canary and leading indicator on global demand. In between those talks, we’re covering all things Cotton including crop insurance, irrigated vs dry land, the scam that was Pima and Egyptian Cotton, the process of cotton – which countries have it, which want it, ginning it, spinning it, dyeing it, global commodity merchant co’s pushing it around, and even micro-plastics, climate change, and how Cotton always flows to the cheapest labor source. Finally, we’re walking in some high Cotton putting Ron in the hot seat. Will we ever get the growth back? Tune in to get these critical hot takes — SEND IT!

 

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

 

15 Jul 2022
Agriculture, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Fertilizer, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Podcast, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: JULY 8 – 14

Corn had a volatile week suffering losses to drop back to levels it saw at the start of last week. The USDA report on Tuesday this week wiped out the gains from last week after a bearish report. Ending stocks came in higher than expectations, not by much, but enough to be bearish. The recession fears affect every market and corn is no different as ending stocks will grow as less ethanol is produced and other uses will lower. The weather is the bullish factor in the market right now with hot and dry conditions expected across much of the corn belt during pollination. The longer this weather outlook stays, the more bullish it will become as yields struggle. Russia says they have agreed to a safe export corridor for Ukrainian grain.

Via Barchart

Soybeans took it on the chin post report just like corn. While the report numbers were not overly bearish the loss in crude oil and soy oil prices have weighed on beans lately. The weather issues for corn are not as big a concern for soybeans (yet) but will be something that could come up in the future. South American yields are still hard to get a full picture of with the USDA still differing from many estimates. China canceled a bean purchase on top of a poor export report for the week.

Via Barchart

Cotton has continued its move lower despite widespread abandonment in west Texas. This comes from the expect of demand destruction with a potential worldwide recession ahead and producers sitting on plenty of supply. Prices could be even worse if the US was having a good growing season, but the demand destruction along with a very strong US dollar does not help cotton. With the loss of many hedgers in the market due to the loss of crop, specs will be the market mover, trading on technical indicators, not fundamentals, for the foreseeable future and will decide the direction with mills on the sidelines too.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets continue their game of “recession or not” with the up and down trade. Another hot CPI number of 9.1% came in this week, the market was expecting it to be in the high 8s so this was still a bad number. While commodity prices have come down other areas of the market remain painful. Earnings this week were disappointing for banks kicking a market that was down and needed some positive news. The market will continue this back-and-forth game until everyone decides we are in the clear or the recession is unavoidable.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The drought monitor below shows where we stand week to week.

Podcast

There is an agriculture tug of war happening across the nation, impacting America’s farmland. Fertilizer prices are continuously fluctuating, and it has us taking a page the “The Clash” should we stay, or should we go?! And we aren’t the only ones. Many farmers are asking their agronomist and chemical salespeople, “what will fertilizer cost me the rest of the season, and what are my options if I don’t want to go all-in on my typical fertilizer treatment plan?”

In this episode of the Hedged Edge, we are joined by a special guest who needs no introduction in his local circle, Dick Stiltz. Dick is a 50-year veteran of the fertilizer and chemical industry and is the current Agronomy Marketing Manager of Procurement fertilizer and crop protection at Prairieland FS, Inc in Jacksonville, IL. He is at the pulse of the current struggle and here to discuss the topic at hand.

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

08 Jul 2022
Agriculture, Corn, Dow Jones, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: JULY 1 – 8

Corn bounced back to end the week after a brutal start. Corn was pressured to start the week with rain this week across large areas and recession fears that would lower demand for fuel and ethanol as energy prices started the week off poorly. Funds over the past couple weeks were unloading some positions as well but that looks to have slowed to end the week with some getting back in.  The bounce back to end the week looks to be partly driven by hot and dry weather expecting to get back to the western corn belt next week and slowly continue east. The July USDA report will be released Tuesday July 12th and will be the next major news that could affect the market.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have traded like corn and on relatively the same news of weather and fund liquidation. The rain in the Midwest to start the week pressured beans lower while Chinese purchases were rumored to switch to Brazil. The drier outlook over the next couple weeks after this weekend will pressure beans after the last USDA report lowered acres considerably. The move after the last couple weeks following the report that lowered acres by over 2 million did not really match up and left many scratching their heads. Tuesday’s report may shed some light on the direction moving forward and what we need to keep an eye on.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets had a fairly level week with some up and down days. The Fed minutes were close to a nonevent as the markets didn’t react. The Fed will probably raise rates by 75 points again in July but their guidance on what will happen after will be important to help recession and inflation fears.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The drought monitor below shows where we stand week to week.

Podcast

There is an agriculture tug of war happening across the nation, impacting America’s farmland. Fertilizer prices are continuously fluctuating, and it has us taking a page the “The Clash” should we stay, or should we go?! And we aren’t the only ones. Many farmers are asking their agronomist and chemical salespeople, “what will fertilizer cost me the rest of the season, and what are my options if I don’t want to go all-in on my typical fertilizer treatment plan?”

In this episode of the Hedged Edge, we are joined by a special guest who needs no introduction in his local circle, Dick Stiltz. Dick is a 50-year veteran of the fertilizer and chemical industry and is the current Agronomy Marketing Manager of Procurement fertilizer and crop protection at Prairieland FS, Inc in Jacksonville, IL. He is at the pulse of the current struggle and here to discuss the topic at hand.

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

01 Jul 2022
Agriculture, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Podcast, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: JUNE 23 – JULY 1

Corn reacted negatively to the Stocks and Acreage report this week despite there not being any surprises and the numbers coming out close to pre-report estimates. Planted acres came in at 89.921 million acres (89.861 million estimate) and June 1 stocks were 4.346 billion bushels (4.343 billion estimate). The bearish news is improving weather after the 4th of July with rains expected across most of the corn belt. The concern over the wet spring causing prevent plant acres in ND and MN does not appear to have come to fruition with high prices motivating farmers to get the crop in the ground. Trading resumes Tuesday morning after the long weekend so any change in weather or world news could lead to a volatile opening after another kick in the teeth on Friday.

Via Barchart

Soybeans had a good week making solid gains before dipping after the report and then getting crushed today (Friday). The bean planted acres was 88.325 million acres (90.446 million estimate) and June 1 stocks was 971 million bushels (965 estimate). The acres number was surprising as it came in 2.121 million acres below pre-report estimates. While the favorable weather for corn is also favorable to beans, they have a different story than corn to follow. Chinese demand needs to return to the market but 2+ million acres of production is a lot to be off by. The inability for Soybeans to break out higher following the report shows that they still have a fight ahead of them and that outside market risks likely have an impact on prices. Friday’s trade hit beans hard and the long weekend holds uncertainties.

Via Barchart

Wheat moved lower on the week pre-report and continued lower after it with no surprises only to get crushed on Friday. All wheat planted acres were 47.092 million acres (47.017 million estimate) and 660 million bushels in June 1st stocks (655 million estimate). After a tough Friday, wheat has plenty of non US weather related news to follow and any developments over the 4th of July weekend will be seen on Tuesday.

Via Barchart

As you can see in the chart below cotton has had a rough 2 weeks. With demand expected to decrease with the possibility of a recession coming, this reaction is clear and puts fiber prices at the mercy of the economy’s future. The other side to this is that US production will likely be lower than expected with so much dryland in west Texas and other serious drought areas (see map below) expected to not produce a crop. Growers planted 12.5 million acres in 2022, up 11% from last year.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets were relatively flat on the week after a few up and down days. The market headlines keep being “market rallies as fear of recession lessens” or “market falls as recession fears remain” so the market is still looking for guidance as it continues lower. July’s news will be similar to June with inflation and the Fed being the main drivers.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The drought monitor below shows where we stand week to week.

Podcast

There is an agriculture tug of war happening across the nation, impacting America’s farmland. Fertilizer prices are continuously fluctuating, and it has us taking a page the “The Clash” should we stay, or should we go?! And we aren’t the only ones. Many farmers are asking their agronomist and chemical salespeople, “what will fertilizer cost me the rest of the season, and what are my options if I don’t want to go all-in on my typical fertilizer treatment plan?”

In this episode of the Hedged Edge, we are joined by a special guest who needs no introduction in his local circle, Dick Stiltz. Dick is a 50-year veteran of the fertilizer and chemical industry and is the current Agronomy Marketing Manager of Procurement fertilizer and crop protection at Prairieland FS, Inc in Jacksonville, IL. He is at the pulse of the current struggle and here to discuss the topic at hand.

 

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

10 Jun 2022
Agriculture, Corn, Dow Jones, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Podcast, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: JUNE 2 – 10

Corn had a good week with solid gains as there has still been no conclusive progress on an open trade corridor for Ukraine to export grain. The US weather outlook for late June remains hot and dry for many areas. While this is not too worrisome yet, if that pattern continues for the summer it could lead to the long-term weather problems the world supply does not need. The cash market remains hot with positive basis for corn pushing corn up over $8 in many areas in the corn belt. The USDA Report Friday did not include many surprises but had a reduction in old crop corn exports. This led to a rise in expected ending stocks for 22/23 to 1.400 billion bushels for the US. World supplies were risen as well on a bigger Ukraine crop expected (up 5.5 mmt from the May estimate).

Via Barchart

Soybeans had a good week with strong exports and higher bean oil prices. While there has not been much soybean specific news, the same supportive factors of the last few weeks remain. The high-pressure ridge that may move into the Midwest is providing support, like for corn, but whether that ends up happening will be a wait and see. The high crude prices will continue to help, and they may stick around for the summer as demand picks up. In Friday’s USDA report, Soybeans ending stocks were lowered to 280 million bushels for 22/23 for the US. World ending stocks were raised to 100.46 million tonnes, slightly higher than May.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets had been trading sideways for the last couple weeks but took it on the chin Thursday and Friday. While the market tries to pick a direction to go, the inflation number on Friday did not help as it rose to 8.6%. Markets tumbled on Thursday as the ECB said it would end asset purchases and begin to raise interest rates, pushing global bond yields higher. Hopes were that inflation had peaked, that was not the case, and the market reacted as expected to a 8.6% inflation number and record low consumer sentiment.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The drought monitor below shows where we stand week to week.

Podcast

There is an agriculture tug of war happening across the nation, impacting America’s farmland. Fertilizer prices are continuously fluctuating, and it has us taking a page the “The Clash” should we stay, or should we go?! And we aren’t the only ones. Many farmers are asking their agronomist and chemical salespeople, “what will fertilizer cost me the rest of the season, and what are my options if I don’t want to go all-in on my typical fertilizer treatment plan?”

In this episode of the Hedged Edge, we are joined by a special guest who needs no introduction in his local circle, Dick Stiltz. Dick is a 50-year veteran of the fertilizer and chemical industry and is the current Agronomy Marketing Manager of Procurement fertilizer and crop protection at Prairieland FS, Inc in Jacksonville, IL. He is at the pulse of the current struggle and here to discuss the topic at hand.

 

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

13 May 2022
Agriculture, Corn, Dow Jones, Fertilizer, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Podcast, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: APRIL 28 – MAY 12

The May USDA report was mixed but the most bullish news out of it was lowering expected yield to 177 bu/acre from 181. This adjustment trumped the other numbers as US and world stocks were higher than expected. The USDA appears to think demand rationing is in the future but is also aware the late panted US crop will not achieve record yield.  The USDA did not change their estimates for Brazil’s safrinha crop, their estimates remain a few hundred million bushels over private estimates. Corn planting was seen as being 22% complete to start the week with more progress being made. The US is well behind its normal pace and there are still places that have yet to start, the longer planting drags out the lower that yield is expected to go.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have struggled the last few weeks as it has fallen to the low $16s. The USDA report was relatively neutral with a mixed bag of numbers that offset each other. They kept the US yield estimates at 51.5 bu/acre as the slow planting pace has not gotten to the end of the soybean window yet. One important thing to note is the USDA’s acreage already had a large shift to beans from corn. If the wet areas do not dry in time for corn to get in so beans get planted instead, we could see an even larger bean vs corn gap in acreage. The slower corn gets planted the more eyes will turn to soybeans and could make for an interesting year.

Via Barchart

Wheat has seen a good rally over the past 2 weeks, lead by a big day after the USDA report. World wheat supplies are at record low stocks to use ratios and moving deeper into 2022. Replacing lost Ukrainian and Russian bushels is a challenge for the USDA balance sheets. World wheat stocks are at 991 million bushels below expectations from the May report in 2021. With the continued war in Ukraine and troubles with wheat crops all over the world, including here in the US, wheat has several bullish factors behind it heading into the summer.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

There really is not much to say as the markets continue lower with inflation posting 8.3% this week. The Fed raised rates last week another 50 points, this was expected, and the markets actually immediately responded favorably before continuing the loses of the last few months. Several rounds of earnings happened this week with few winners and Apple continues its fall as it falls below $150. Apple is always one to keep an eye on as it is no longer the most valuable company in the world. The S&P and NASDAQ are getting hit just as hard (NASDAQ the worst down over 30% from its record highs in November).

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The drought monitor below shows where we stand week to week.

Podcast

There is an agriculture tug of war happening across the nation, impacting America’s farmland. Fertilizer prices are continuously fluctuating, and it has us taking a page the “The Clash” should we stay or should we go?! And we aren’t the only ones. Many farmers are asking their agronomist and chemical salespeople, “what will fertilizer cost me the rest of the season, and what are my options if I don’t want to go all-in on my typical fertilizer treatment plan?”

 

In this episode of the Hedged Edge we are joined by a special guest who needs no introduction in his local circle, Dick Stiltz. Dick is a 50 year veteran of the fertilizer and chemical industry and is the current Agronomy Marketing Manager of Procurement fertilizer and crop protection at Prairieland FS, Inc in Jacksonville, IL. He is at the pulse of the current struggle and here to discuss the topic at hand.

 

 

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

Disclaimer

RCM Ag Services is a registered DBA of Reliance Capital Markets II LLC. Trading futures, options on futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions are complex and involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Loss-limiting strategies such as stop loss orders may not be effective because market conditions or technological issues may make it impossible to execute such orders. Likewise, strategies using combinations of options and/or futures positions such as “spread” or “straddle” trades may be just as risky as simple long and short positions. There are no guarantees of profit. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. You may lose all or more than your initial investment. You should not rely on any of the information herein as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments. Opinions, market data and recommendations are subject to change without notice. Reliance Capital Markets II LLC shall not be held responsible for any actions taken based on this website or attached links. Parties acting on this electronic communication are responsible for their own actions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.