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29 May 2026
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Crude Oil, Dow Jones, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: MAY 8 – 29

Corn has been a market defined by a tug-of-war between a bearish domestic supply picture and a geopolitical premium that refuses to fully disappear. Coming off the May 8th close, December corn had briefly flirted with the $5 level before pulling back as Iran peace talk optimism ebbed and flowed. The May 12th WASDE report, the first to include 2026/27 new-crop estimates, was the dominant event of the period. USDA pegged 2026/27 corn ending stocks at 1.957 billion bushels, down from 2.142 billion for 2025/26, a modest tightening but still well above comfortable levels. The initial reaction was muted, with the market already priced for a heavy supply picture. July corn futures settled in the $4.55 neighborhood in the days following the report, well off recent highs.

The real story in corn continues to be the fertilizer situation. Nitrogen prices, which spiked sharply when the Strait of Hormuz conflict erupted in late February, have only partially retreated from their peaks. Farmers across the country are scrambling for alternatives, manure, biofertilizers, and bio stimulants, but the economics remain challenged. This cost pressure has some analysts believing final planted corn acres could come in below USDA’s March intentions survey. Planting progress has been strong, with the week of May 24th showing approximately 89% of the crop in the ground, well ahead of the five-year average. Export inspections continue to run well ahead of last year’s pace, providing a supportive underpinning, and a flash sale of nearly 19.4 million bushels to Mexico was announced mid-month. If you can sell corn at profitable levels above your cost of production, it remains a reasonable conversation to have with your merchandiser given the uncertainty that still lies ahead.

Via Barchart

Soybeans were the standout performer of the period, posting their most significant rally in months following the May 12th WASDE. USDA surprised the trade by projecting 2026/27 soybean ending stocks at just 310 million bushels, a full 30 million below the 2025/26 figure and roughly 45 million below analyst expectations. The primary driver was a massive projected increase in crush demand, with USDA forecasting 2.750 billion bushels of crush for 2026/27, up 120 million from the current year, on the back of exceptional crush margins and booming soybean oil demand as a biofuel feedstock. Board crush margins holding well above $3 per bushel remain historically exceptional and are lending strong support to nearby contracts. July soybean futures spiked to two-year highs in the wake of the report.

The rally has since come under some pressure, with planting progress running exceptionally fast, 79% of intended soybean acres were in the ground as of May 25th, ahead of the 68% five-year average and significantly above last year’s pace. Brazil’s Conab and USDA left South American production estimates largely unchanged, with Brazil expected to produce another enormous crop in 2026/27. Year-to-date U.S. soybean export shipments trail last year’s pace by about 21%, which remains an overhang on any sustained rally. Still, with domestic crush demand as strong as it has been in years, beans have a fundamental story to tell that corn simply does not right now. The long-awaited Trump-Xi meeting, which had been delayed repeatedly, amid the Iran conflict negotiations, remains a potential catalyst for a fresh round of Chinese buying that could push beans meaningfully higher.

Via Barchart

Wheat has been the most compelling story in the grain complex over the past three weeks, and for good reason. The May 12th WASDE delivered a shocking number: USDA projected 2026/27 U.S. winter wheat production at just 1.048 billion bushels, down 25% from 2025/26 and the smallest domestic wheat harvest since 1965. Severe, persistent drought across the Southern Plains, particularly in Kansas, Colorado, and Nebraska, has devastated crop conditions. At last check, only about 30% of the winter wheat crop was rated good or excellent, with maturity running well ahead of schedule due to extreme dryness. The recent volatility off contract highs took a big chunk out of the market but still holding over $6 in July wheat.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

Equity markets have continued their remarkable run, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posting new all-time highs during the period. The AI trade remains the dominant factor with AI being the dominant story during earnings. While PCE inflation came in at 3.8% for April the markets shrugged it off mostly. Some AI related names have gone parabolic in the last month creating a tough environment if you want to own those names.

Via Barchart

Energy Markets

Crude oil remains the macro wildcard for the entire ag complex. WTI has been in a volatile, two-directional range throughout the period, with prices whipsawing on every Iran headline. Peace talk optimism has pushed oil down meaningfully from its April peaks above $110 per barrel, with analysts at UBS noting that crude has fallen roughly 20% from its 2026 highs on ceasefire negotiations. However, Iran crude loadings in May have run below 0.3 million barrels per day, a dramatic collapse from March’s 1.7 million barrels per day, meaning actual physical supply has not improved despite the diplomatic noise.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • Wheat’s surge to two-year highs has been the headline, but cotton has continued its own quiet rally. Hedge funds turned net bullish on cotton for the first time in two years this month as the war-driven surge in oil prices increased the appeal of natural fiber over synthetic alternatives like polyester and nylon, which require petroleum inputs. Producers who can lock in profitable margins at current levels while maintaining upside participation should be exploring their hedging options.
  • Iran is reportedly reviewing a formal U.S. peace framework that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping. Markets are cautiously optimistic but skeptical.
  • The EPA’s finalized 2026–2027 Renewable Fuel Standard volumes, set at record highs, continue to provide a structural floor under corn and soybean oil demand. Soybean crush is already running at historic highs in response, and these RFS volumes ensure that domestic demand will remain exceptionally strong regardless of where export flows go.

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor.

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

 

 

08 May 2026
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Fertilizer, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: APRIL 17 – MAY 8

Corn has been a tale of two forces over the past three weeks. Coming off the euphoria of Iran’s Strait of Hormuz reopening announcement on April 17th, markets initially attempted to stabilize, but that news seemed short-lived as volatility in the middle east kept markets volatile. With the war premium in and out of the market, it has been trying to trade both geopolitical news and fundamentals, and those fundamentals remain heavy. U.S. ending stocks at 2.127 billion bushels, the highest in seven years, kept a ceiling on any sustained rally, and fast planting progress added some pressure. The USDA’s crop progress report showed nationwide corn plantings at 38% planted. Exports remain strong as the potential for a smaller US crop with higher fertilizer costs keep buyers in the market at these price levels. December corn popped above $5 for a couple days but quickly fell back as it fell with crude on peace talks. Geopolitical events are hard to predict, especially with this White House, so if you get the opportunity for profitable sales, it would be something worth considering because if crude drops back to $70-80/barrel and we have another record/near record crop it will be hard to hold these levels or move higher.

Via Barchart

The market continues to wait for a fresh demand catalyst, and the one most closely watched, a potential resumption of Chinese buying linked to a Trump-Xi summit, has been repeatedly delayed amid ongoing Iran conflict negotiations, but appears to be on for this month. The bullish case for soybeans continues to rest on crush economics. Board crush margins holding above $3 per bushel are exceptional by historical standards and are supporting the nearby contracts. NOPA March crush are expected to far exceed year-ago levels, underscoring the strength of domestic demand for meal and oil. Brazil’s Conab raised its 2025/26 soybean production estimate once more to 6.582 billion bushels, and May shipment estimates from Brazil’s Anec were raised to 533.8 million bushels, peak export season for the world’s largest shipper. That supply overhang remains the key obstacle to a sustained rally with South America having such a large crop. Beans planted were at 33% for the week of May 4th, slightly lower than expected but still very strong for this time of year.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

Equity markets continue to make new highs on the back of the AI trade with names like Micron, SanDisk and Western Digital screaming higher and other tech names having a very strong April with the NASDAQ Index up over 15% in the month. Big players such as Google, Meta, and Amazon reported in the last 2 weeks with mixed results but the markets moved higher.

Via Barchart

Energy Markets

Energy has remained the dominant macro force across all commodity markets, though the price action has been far more volatile and two-directional compared to the one-way crude rally seen earlier in the spring. This push-pull between ceasefire hopes and renewed escalation threats has created a volatile and headline-driven energy market. For ag producers, the primary implication is that fertilizer cost relief remains partial and uncertain. Diesel costs have come down from peak levels but are not back to pre-war norms, and nitrogen prices, which spiked nearly 40% during the war, have only partially retreated.

Via Barchart

Other News

– Cotton has continued its run higher on demand from overseas buyers with alternative fibers such as polyester needing oil for production. Growers can be profitable at these levels so having a hedging strategy where you protect the downside but can still participate in any further upside is very important.

– EPA finalized 2026–2027 Renewable Fuel Standard volumes at record highs, a development that could meaningfully increase ethanol demand and provide a long-term supportive floor under corn prices.

– Iran is reportedly evaluating a U.S. peace proposal that includes a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by both sides. Markets expect Iran’s formal response in coming days, making this the single most important macro event in the near-term commodity outlook.

– The May 12th USDA WASDE report will include the first official 2026/27 production forecasts for all major crops. Given the wheat situation in the Plains and uncertainty around corn acres, this report has the potential to be a significant market mover across the complex.

 

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor.

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today+

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

 

 

17 Apr 2026
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Crude Oil, Dow Jones, Education, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: APRIL 2 – 17

Corn spent the start of April grinding lower, posting a fourth consecutive weekly loss by April 10th as the April WASDE reinforced a burdensome supply narrative. The USDA left U.S. ending stocks essentially unchanged at 2.127 billion bushels, the highest in seven years, and global stocks came in above trade expectations at 294.81 million metric tons. A two week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, announced April 7th, removed much of the war premium that had propped up prices since March, as easing Strait of Hormuz concerns pulled crude oil sharply lower and dragged corn along with it. July futures slid to a fresh four-week low near $4.40, completing a nearly 62% retracement from the March 9th highs. The past week saw stabilization and a modest recovery. Faster than expected planting progress, U.S. corn planting reached 5% completion as of April 13th, slightly ahead of last year’s pace, combined with firming eastern Corn Belt basis and Mexico securing a large forward purchase of 12.4 million bushels helped steady sentiment. The old crop market remains locked in a congestion zone between $4.45 and $4.55 on May futures, with the 200-day moving average serving as key support. Speculators have been trimming their long positions aggressively, as shown in the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders reports, leaving the market less vulnerable to a large liquidation event but also with less upside fuel until a fresh catalyst emerges as money allocators reposition to the equity markets.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have largely remained in a sideways grind, trading between $11.50 and $11.83 on July futures for most of the last 2 weeks. The April WASDE showed U.S. ending stocks unchanged at 350 million bushels with adjustments netting to zero, crush estimates raised while exports were trimmed by the same amount. The season-average price forecast was nudged 10 cents higher to $10.30 per bushel. Brazil’s CONAB raised its 2025/26 soybean production estimate again, this time to 6.582 billion bushels, keeping the global supply backdrop heavy and capping any sustained rallies. On the positive side, strong domestic crush margins, board crush pushing above $3 per bushel, have been the primary support story for the complex. NOPA March crush is expected to come in well above year-ago levels when reported. U.S. planting progress debuted at 6% complete as of April 13th, ahead of the 2% five-year average, with Mississippi and Tennessee leading at 39% and 36%, respectively. The market is waiting for a significant new headline to break out of the current range. Talks between President Trump and China’s President Xi, which were delayed amid the Iran conflict, remain a key watch item as any resumption of Chinese buying interest could quickly change the demand narrative for U.S. soybeans.

Via Barchart

Wheat has done better the last couple of weeks, with Kansas City HRW futures rallying on the back of deteriorating U.S. crop conditions and persistent drought in the Southern Plains. USDA’s April 14th crop progress report showed just 34% of the winter wheat crop rated good-to-excellent, down a full 13 percentage points from a year ago, with 32% of the crop rated poor or very poor. Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle remained in severe to extreme drought, and the recent widespread rain systems have largely missed the driest areas. Concerns about the long-term fertilizer supply disruptions caused by the Iran conflict have added a structural premium, with funds holding a record long position in spring wheat and a growing net long in Kansas City HRW. July HRW futures jumped nearly 20 cents on April 14th alone, reaching their highest settlement since March 31st at $6.36. Chicago SRW July futures also pushed above $6.00. The market sold off modestly to end the week but held the bulk of its gains. Longer-range forecasts suggest late April could bring more favorable moisture to parts of the Plains, which could temper upside. For now, weather, drought maps, and the weekly crop condition ratings are the primary price drivers.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

Equity markets have moved from deep stress to new record highs over this two-week stretch, tracking the Iran ceasefire developments closely. When Trump announced the two-week pause in operations on April 7th, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1,325 points, its best single session since April 2025, while the S&P 500 gained 2.5% to 6,782. Through the balance of the period, stocks continued recovering as investors grew increasingly optimistic about a lasting peace deal, with the S&P 500 recouping all losses accumulated since the start of the conflict. The run to new highs has been impressive with the NASDAQ having a positive day for 14 straight days.

Via Barchart

Energy Markets

Energy markets have continued to be volatile over the past couple of weeks but the news of ceasefire and opening of the Strait of Hormuz. While the cease-fire does not mean the conflict is over, if good news continues to come out of Washington oil prices will fall. The ceasefire dynamics have already meaningfully reduced fertilizer cost fears and energy-linked inflation expectations.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • Cotton has been one of the most compelling commodity stories of the period, with July futures pushing to a nearly two-year high and new crop cotton reaching $0.80 in the Dec contract. The move has been supported by a combination of bullish factors: elevated crude oil prices increasing polyester production costs and driving synthetic fiber substitution back toward natural cotton, a weaker U.S. dollar, and persistent drought in key U.S. growing regions stretching from the Texas Panhandle westward. The USDA April WASDE raised global production by 900,000 bales while also lifting consumption by 560,000 bales, leaving the net balance slightly tightened.
  • USDA’s April WASDE raised the season-average farm price for wheat 5 cents to $5.00/bu, corn 5 cents to $4.15/bu, and soybeans 10 cents to $10.30/bu.
  • The Trump administration called out fertilizer giant Mosaic for idling two Brazilian plants, with Deputy Agriculture Secretary Stephen Vaden publicly questioning the timing as global fertilizer supplies face war-related disruptions.
  • A new survey found that only 60% of U.S. corn farmers have secured their nitrogen needs for the 2026 crop year, a reflection of the input cost uncertainty created by the Iran conflict.
  • Brazil’s CONAB raised its 2025/26 total corn crop estimate to 139.6 MMT (5.5 billion bushels), maintaining a heavy Southern Hemisphere supply backdrop.

 

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor. With planting starting later this spring, we need rain in a lot of places in March.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

02 Apr 2026
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Education, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: MARCH 20 – APRIL 2

Corn has remained supported but volatile following the March 31st USDA Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks reports, which reinforced a tighter-than-expected balance sheet narrative. The USDA came out with 95.338 million acres, near the lower end of trade expectations, confirming earlier concerns that higher input costs, particularly fertilizer due to war in Iran, would limit corn expansion, while stocks data did not show burdensome supplies. This has helped underpin prices despite sluggish export demand and limited Chinese participation, keeping the market more focused on supply risk than demand weakness. Combined with continued strength in energy markets and inflation-driven fund interest, corn remains in a supportive environment, though the large speculative long position leaves it vulnerable to sharp downside if macro sentiment shifts.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have struggled to find sustained strength even after the March 31st USDA reports, which confirmed expectations for increased U.S. acreage and relatively comfortable stocks levels. The larger planting outlook reinforces the idea of ample new crop supplies, especially when paired with ongoing pressure from South America’s record production. While periodic rallies have been driven by energy market spillover and inflation concerns, the lack of consistent export demand, particularly from China, and fading optimism around biofuel policy have kept the market defensive. Overall, the USDA data solidified a more bearish supply outlook, leaving soybeans reliant on external market strength rather than supportive fundamentals. Talks between president Trump and China’s president Xi will be watched under a microscope if they end up happening after already being delayed with the conflict in Iran continuing.

Via Barchart

Energy Markets

Energy markets have continued to dominate the macro landscape, with crude oil holding elevated and volatile levels as geopolitical tensions involving Iran persist and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved. The sustained strength in energy has amplified inflation concerns globally, driving investment flows into commodities and influencing planting decisions, input costs, and overall sentiment across agricultural markets.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

Equity markets have remained under pressure since late March, as the combination of higher energy prices and the inflationary implications highlighted in recent economic data have weighed heavily on investor sentiment. The indexes continues to reflect a risk-off environment, with concerns centered on slowing economic growth, tighter margins from rising input costs, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty overshadowing otherwise stable underlying economic conditions.

Via Barchart

Other News

– Cotton acres in the prospective plantings report were 9.64 million for 2026, a 4% increase from last year.

– All wheat acres from the report were 43.8 million acres, down 3% from 2025.

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor. With planting starting later this spring, we need rain in a lot of places in March.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

 

 

12 Jan 2026
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Education, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: POST JANUARY 12 USDA REPORT

Corn took a dive on today’s USDA report with 1.3 million more harvested acres and larger yield than expected coming in at 186.5 bu/ac. With this comes more production leading to larger ending stocks, brutal two-sided hit for the corn bulls. Corn had done a great job of climbing higher since early December, but today’s report gives all the momentum back to the bears with South America’s growing season off to a great start. Corn’s big move lower sent it below all technical support and unless we see a quick turnaround this week what was a support level could turn into overhead resistance as we are now at levels last seen in August.

Via Barchart

While the USDA report was not as bad for beans, it did suffer double digit losses with a slightly higher than expected national yield of 53 bu/ac. One important item was that US exports were revised lower due to more world competition. This is important as we still need China to buy US beans as we do not have another major market catalyst as the Trump administration has not been friendly for the implementation of SAF (sustainable aviation fuel). The month and half of +$11 beans we saw will be a struggle to get back to as South America continues to roll on with another record crop expected.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

Equity markets roll on despite some days of volatility with headlines from the White House and drama surrounding the Fed. As you can see in the chart below since last April’s tariff scare the markets have been steadily moving higher.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • The precious metals trade continued its strong 2025 into the start of 2026 with new highs in gold and silver.
  • Wheat had ending stocks rose modestly and the price was dragged lower with corn.

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

 

14 Nov 2025
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Education, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: OCTOBER 27 – NOVEMBER 14

Corn’s Thursday rally was met with a post report Friday dip and gave up 10 cents back to $4.30. Despite the late season crop problems of drought and rust, the USDA did not find the corn yield loss that was expected and came in with a 186 bu/ac estimate, higher than the trade estimate. With higher production came higher US ending stocks, but those were not raised as much as yield as corn exports and domestic industrial demand has been exceptional this fall. The chart still looks constructive, but after a 30-cent rally in one month, the market will look to take a breather, especially after today’s report.

Via Barchart

Beans have been on a great run higher, albeit with some volatility, until Friday’s USDA report. Coming in that hot to a report can lead to a let down which we saw to some extent. The bean yield numbers were not as surprising as corn, coming in close to estimates, but the market still took a hit. The number to look at was the US held bean imports to China unchanged at 112 MMT for the 25/26 marketing year. A flash sale report did show sales of 1.1 mbu to China around the time the trade deal was in the works. The delayed data is hard to fit with all the other news out there but China buying anything is a good sign.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

Equity markets have been volatile the last few weeks as worries of an AI bubble continue and several large companies such as Palantir, Meta and Oracle are well off their 52 week highs. Volatility will likely remain in the market for a bit as we will get caught up on economic data that was missing during the government shutdown.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • The wheat numbers were bearish as domestic and world stocks continue to climb on record world yields in all producing countries and exporters finding exports difficult to come by even at rock bottom prices. Wheat will remain an anchor on corn rallies.
  • Cotton adjustments show 900K more bales of US production, 200k more bales of US exports, and 700K more bales of US ending stocks compared to September.

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor as harvest rolls on.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

 

28 Oct 2025
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Livestock, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: SEPT 30 – OCT 27

Corn has continued to trade range-bound between $4.10 and $4.30 with a nice recent run to the top of the range. Follow through buying to push towards $4.50 will be needed as harvest heads toward a finish and the large supply coming out of the fields. All crops got a boost after positive news from Secretary Bessent over the weekend saying China will be buying US soybeans (and assume other commodities as well). The market still has downside risk with a large US crop and global economic issues that for now are not flashing major warning signals but the market has been recession warry since the tariffs went into place in April.

Via Barchart

Beans continued their recent rally with positive news on US and China trade relations from Secretary Bessent. We will need to see these soybean purchases from China come to fruition without any more escalations that could put this progress at risk. With the continued Government shutdown the lack of information to trade from the USDA will make private reports the main news.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

Equity markets continue to move higher after a recent dip as Gold has fallen off its recent highs but equities, lead by AI and tech, continue to climb higher with 2 months left in the year.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • Cattle futures have fallen quickly off record highs as question marks around the USDA and white house about how they want to address high beef prices continue.
  • Cotton remains quiet with no major news to get it out of the mid 60 cent range.
  • The government shutdown continues.

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor as harvest rolls on.

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

Check it Out:

Harvest, Hedging, and History: Navigating Agricultural Markets from Grain Elevators to Futures Contracts

02 Sep 2025
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: AUGUST 12 – 29

Corn has rallied off the post USDA report lows with a large up day on Friday to end the week. Pro Farmer Tour wrapped up their crop tour and has an average US corn yield of 182.7 bu/ac which would still be a record on top of the added acreage, but well below the 188.8 the USDA came out with. The two sides from the USDA’s report is that they likely won’t come out with a higher yield again with some small weather issues developing, but if they keep it high and make another big correction in January saying the crop wasn’t as big as they thought it could cost the farm community billions. The weather has cooled off for much of the country but the lack of rain for extended periods may be a problem in the home stretch.

Via Barchart

The Pro Farmer Tour found a bean crop more along the lines of what the USDA had coming in with a 53 bu/ac estimate vs the USDA’s 53.6 bu/ac. Beans biggest problem right now has been lack of rain for pod fill but a few well timed rains down the stretch could lead to a massive crop. China really needs to show up as a buyer for beans to leg higher but they can get all they want from South America right now even though they are paying a premium to get them vs US beans. The funds have a neutral position on the market as they wait for news that could send the market any direction other outside of the $10 – $10.50 range it has been trading in the majority of the last 6 months. China still remains a cloud over the market with the Trump administration needing to get Ag purchase commitments whenever they work out a trade deal in the coming months.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

Equity markets continue to claw higher amidst pullbacks as earnings wrap up and AI and tech still drive the market direction. The Fed is expected to cut rates in September while the Trump administration’s attack on the Fed’s independence continues with Lisa Cook in its crosshairs currently.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • ADM plans to close a soy protein plant in Bushnell, IL.
  • Brazil’s investigation into the Soy Moratorium (curbs Amazon deforestation) could threaten sustainable soy sourcing, with potential ripple effects in the global supply chain.
  • Wheat has been relatively flat the last couple weeks.
  • Cotton continues to trade sideways waiting on demand to pick up.

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

 

12 Aug 2025
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: AUG 4 – AUG 12 USDA REPORT

188.8 bu/acre… Hard to find a silver lining in the report for corn as the USDA ripped the band-aid off from the start instead of slow playing it. The average trade guess was 184-185 bu/ac which led to a big selloff seeing new contract lows. On top of the big yield number the USDA took the FSA planted acreage data and added 3 million acres in planted corn. The extra yield and acres could add nearly an extra 1 billion bushels of corn to the US and world ending stocks. The report did nothing to help the direction corn has been trading.

Via Barchart

The bean yield was also above pre-report estimates, coming in at 53.6 bu/acre. Prices were higher though following the 3 million acre planted acreage cut and total production cut by 90 million bushels. The market was caught off guard by the 3 million acre shift as evidenced in the opposite price reaction to the report numbers. The bean rally will give farmers a chance to catch up on sales but it will also motivate more acres to be planted in South America on stronger prices.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

Equity markets continued to perform well as AI and tech companies are still the major movers. Nvidia and Microsoft are now a combined 15+% of the S&P 500 index, causing some to worry about concentration, but luckily they are performing well so right now a rising tide raises all boats (money in S&P ETFs).

Via Barchart

Other News

  • Wheat was in line with re-report estimates and had no major surprises. The weakness in corn will continue to weigh on wheat however.
  • Cotton saw a boost post report after the USDA lowered planted and harvested acres. Production was trimmed by 1.39 million bales to 13.21 million bales.

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

 

30 Jun 2025
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Risk Management, Soybeans, U.S. Dollar, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: JUNE 13 – 30

Last week was rough for commodities as corn dropped to make new contract lows in Dec ’25. The charts do not look good for corn and there is no good news to help either. There are no major weather concerns and South America is producing another record crop allowing for ample ending stocks in the world. The USDA June 30th Planted Acreage Report stated that corn has 95.203 million planted acres. This number is neutral to bearish as the market was expecting a slightly higher number but anything 95+ with the weather to this point in the year looks for a huge crop. The bears have the momentum right now but there are some trouble areas and a long summer ahead to bring the bulls some help.

Via Barchart

Soybeans gave back the recent gains as well last week before the report on June 30th. Beans will likely continue to trade in the range they have been until we receive news to direct the market either on the trade agreement side or weather. The Planted Acres report had 83.38 million acres, slightly below expectations. The tax bill going through congress right now may give beans some help by getting rid of a 45z tax credit loophole but until this thing passes everything is on the table to get cut from it. Weather is good for the next 2 weeks so the market needs positive news from a US and China trade deal to give it a boost.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

Markets set new highs after another V shape recovery following the liberation day tariff dip. Several tech stocks have led the way outside of the Magnificent 7 as AI continues to dominate headlines with spending continuing and companies talking about how it can help improve their margins.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • Cotton acres came in higher than expected at 10.12 million acres. Cotton has been stuck below 70 cents/lb for a while and while the acreage number came in higher than expected we know there are issues with the crop and a lot of abandonment.
  • Wheat, like corn and beans, yawned at the report as the numbers were close to the average estimate with no major changes. After a mid June rally, the weakness to end the month was disappointing dropping 50 cents from the highs.
  • The weakness in the USD over the past few months will be something to keep an eye on as the year continues with it trading at levels we have not seen since early 2022.
  • Tensions in the Middle East continue despite a drawdown in aggression.

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

 

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